Voter trends in the 22nd Congressional District: Why do Valadao and Republicans do so well?
Nov 19, 2024
BAKERSFIELD, Calif. (KGET) -- The days, weeks and months after an election aren't just about the results, there's great focus on analysis of voter trends as well.
"Because you have a Democratic registration advantage, sometimes in 15%-18% registration advantage, but still, you find voters electing Republicans," said Paul Mitchell, vice president of Political Data, a bipartisan voter data firm.
Mitchell emphasized that's why Central Valley politics is so fascinating.
"There's kind of a terminology of 'Valleycrats,' meaning Democratic registered voters who are more white collar, more concerned about more conservative issues -- gun rights, lower taxes, lower gas prices," Mitchell added about the unique nature of Kern County
Specifically in the 22nd Congressional District, which leans Democratic in terms of voter registration, yet the Republican incumbent David Valadao was just reelected to his fifth term, beating Democratic challenger Rudy Salas in consecutive elections.
17's Jenny Huh: "Some people will be brutally honest and say really, given the registration and makeup of the district, there's no reason for an Anglo-Republican like Valadao should be holding the seat year after year after year?"
Paul Mitchell: "Yeah, there are safe Democratic districts around the state, where Democrats and Republicans are within a percentage point of each other. But because the independent [voters] are so left leaning, that a district that's 33% Democrat, 33% Republican, 33% Independent is going to go Democratic in every single election.
Mitchell continued, "Yet in [CD-22] like you said, [where there's] almost a 20% Democratic advantage, and David Valadao has been one who has outperformed in his elections despite a district that was drawn in the most recent redistricting to really advantage a Latino candidate."
In fact, experts say this 2021 redistricting benefited Democrats statewide.
"Which would amplify the voice of the Latino community that has never elected a Latino to a congressional district in the Central Valley," Mitchell added.
17's Jenny Huh: "Voter turnout is the name of the game in CD-22 because time after time, we don't see that voter base that should've been for someone like Rudy Salas turn out and vote."
Jeffries: Republicans don’t have a mandate
Paul Mitchell: "Part of the reason they turn out in lower rates is because young people turn out in lower rates, and there are more young Latinos in this district that older voters."
According to PDI's ballot tracker, as of Monday, fewer than 40% of CD-22 ballots had been returned.
Of the registered voters who submitted those ballots, 50% were Republican; 37% Democrat and 26% Independent.
Older white voters turned out at a higher rate than younger Latino voters did.
"When turnout drops, it doesn't drop equally for all groups," Mitchell said, explaining more of Rep. Valadao's voter base likely turned up to vote than did Rudy Salas'," Mitchell stated.
"A small-ish, maybe single-digit Democratic advantage in the early mail ballots, and also those voters a lot older, a lot more homeowners. Then you go to the in-person, and it's wildly Republican. And then you look at the late ballots and those again skew Democratic, more so Democratic than the first ballots," Mitchell said of when voters in each party tend to vote.
We saw that statewide trend in the 22nd Congressional district race.
For early mail -- meaning ballots received by Nov. 3 or earlier -- more Democrats and seniors voted.
Close
Thanks for signing up!
Watch for us in your inbox.
Subscribe Now
Daily News
SIGN UP NOW
For voting center -- meaning in-person ballots -- many more Republicans and youth voted.
For late mail -- meaning ballots processed post-Election Day -- more Democrats, and significantly more non-white and young voters voted.
It should be noted the PDI data may not encompass the most recent results from county offices. The 22nd Congressional District encompasses Kern, Kings and Tulare counties, so PDI must incorporate data from all three elections offices.