How Victor Wembanyama’s heavy shot diet of threes can help the rest of his game
Nov 19, 2024
Photos by Michael Gonzales/NBAE via Getty Images
Victor Wembanyama has been criticized for his long range attempts, until they started going in. Could they be unleashing his offense on more levels than one? So far in this young 2024-2025 season, Victor Wembanyama is averaging 8.6 three-point attempts per game: three shots more than his rookie season average of 5.5. This was met with near-universal questioning for the first nine games of this year, as he was only making them at 22.6 percent. The common rebuke was that he should get down low in the post and get more shots in the paint.
Then, everything changed in games 10, 11, and 12. Wembanyama was not deterred by national criticism. In fact, he bombed away from long range, bumping the attempts up to 12.3 per game over that stretch, and with good reason. Over those three games against Utah, Sacramento, and Washington, he more than doubled his long-range average, sinking them at 54.1 percent.
This not only showed the world why a 7’4"center was not going to stop putting up threes but also raised questions (or questioned previous questions) about what his shot diet consisted of and what it’s going to look like going forward.
Shot Diet
In thirteen games, Webmanyama has taken 31 per 100 shots at the rim, 24 in the mid-range, and 45 from three, according to cleaningtheglass.com. Looking at three-point attempts league-wide, he ranks 16th with 112 total attempts and the only center in the top fifty. Even in this three-point era, a player of Wembanyama’s position and size taking this many threes is not normal.
But what about Victor Wembanyama has ever been “normal?”
His rookie season saw a more even split between his shot attempts. He took 37 per 100 at the rim, 32 in the mid-range, and 30 from three. What he’s done this year, in an oversimplified explanation, is take a decent chunk of the mid-range as well as some rim attempts and shift them beyond the arc.
Now, not all field goal attempts are created equal, hence the caveat of oversimplification, therefore it’s worth looking a little deeper at his field goal percentage from all areas, not just three, and analyzing how that reallocation from the mid to long-range has gone for him.
Currently, Webmanyama is averaging 36 percent from mid-range and 34 percent from three. In terms of effective field goal percentage though, his three-pointer is worth 51 percent, as it takes into account the extra value of the shot. Exchanging some mid-range attempts for three-pointers is a logical progression.
That should come as no surprise, we know in this day and age that three-pointers are more valuable than most mid-range attempts. The league as a whole doesn’t take a lot of them, and with his 24 attempts per 100, Wembanyama sits about in the middle of the league. But the most efficient shot in the game is still a dunk, and the criticism of him sacrificing shots at the rim for three-pointers holds more validity. After all, he is the tallest player on the court. In theory, he shouldn’t be sacrificing shots at the rim.
How does he get more shots at the rim?
Why not post him up more? The short answer is, he isn’t so good at it yet. While Wembanyama is tall, he hasn’t found efficiency as a low post player, averaging 0.97 points per possession on 2.3 post-ups per game this season and 0.89 on 3.3 last season. The consensus here is that Wembanyama isn’t strong enough yet to overpower other bigs. He won’t be nearly as efficient getting to the rim pounding the ball in the low post, the way his forefathers did. The Spurs simply aren’t going to play him as an interior player at this point in his career.
Wembanyama’s at-the-rim efficiency works better going from the outside-in, instead of the inside-out. Last season, he shot 70 percent at the rim, which was in the 55th percentile among bigs per cleaningtheglass.com. This season, he’s at 82 percent, 95th percentile among bigs.
Granted, the positive correlation between his three-point attempts and field goal percentage at the rim does come from a small sample size. It’s hard to say for certain if his efficiency at the rim can be directly attributed to his three-point attempts, but it doesn’t seem like his shot diet with a healthy portion from the long-range is going to change anytime soon. His recent three-point explosion only supports that. Given that, it makes sense to establish him on the outside and let him work towards the hoop instead of trying to get him post-ups that aren’t as efficient and explore the trend.
Assuming his perimeter shooting is a factor in his at-the-rim performance, the fulcrum of this dynamic then becomes a question of what kind of shooting percentages he can maintain. After the incredible three-game run his shooting fell back down to earth with a 4 for 13 night against the Lakers. Obviously, he won't shoot 54 percent from three all the time, but will he be able to be at least decent?
For this, we can take a look at the only part of the game that doesn't change, free throw shooting. Right now, Wembanyama is averaging 87.2 percent from the line, considerably better than last season’s still respectable 79.6. It’s early on, but if he can maintain nearly 90 percent on free throws, it’s not unreasonable to expect at minimum the league average of 36 percent from three.
Better than average would be ideal, and he’s already proven he can get hot for multiple-game stretches, but even average is enough to make to defenses respect him. They’ll be more reluctant to give him those attempts, which will only give way to more efficiency as it will open up floor spacing for the rest of the offense and allow him more chances to attack closeouts.
Overall, the Spurs betting heavy on Wembanyama’s three-point attempts may end up leading to more attempts at the hoop when all is said and done. It’s not a conventional approach for a 7’4’’ player, but if critics want Wembanyama to get to the basket more, this is how it’s going to be done. He isn’t getting more rim attempts yet, but he is efficient when he gets there.
There’s a reason he’s called an alien.
Wembanyama is an anomalous player. If he were any other 7-footer, he probably would be working out in the post, trying to get stronger. And he still might. But he isn’t any other 7-footer. His dynamic athleticism combined with his feel for the game, along with that size are what make him Victor Wembanyama. When trying to figure out how his game will develop, it’s best to drop any preconceived expectations.