FORT WAYNE, Ind. (WANE) - When your Live Doppler 15 Fury Storm Team starts preparing the winter outlook each year, one of the first things we consider is whether it's an El Niño or La Niña year.In El Niño years, the water is warmer than average off the western coast of South America.In La Niña years, it's colder than average, and this affects what type of weather pattern we'll have in our area. But, here's the deal – this year, the computer models tell us the water temperature is cooling, but we're not cool enough to be in a full-fledged La Niña yet. Conditions are just neutral right now, which doesn't give us a high confidence in how winter will play out because we don't quite know when this La Niña weather pattern will be firmly in place.If we were in a strong La Niña year, our likely weather pattern is one where conditions are wetter than average and occasional arctic blasts are possible. But, as of this forecast in November, the transition to the conditions that would set this up are just starting. The La Niña weather pattern often supports more weather systems tracking through our region and increases our potential for precipitation, whether rain, ice, or snow, during the winter months. With the potential for the polar jet stream to drop south, we can get some cold blasts from the north, too.With the El Niño pattern, we can easily end up warmer for the season when the polar jet stream mainly stays north over the winter months. Winter storm systems tend to take more southerly tracks, reducing our potential for experiencing many big precipitation events. Our Live Doppler 15 Fury Storm Team thinking is that it will take time, perhaps as long as until the second half of winter, for us to solidly get into this pattern.Since we're not fully in this pattern yet, you can see how the Climate Prediction Center forecasts for November through January show us most likely to maintain our warmer than average pattern and have equal chances of being below average or above average in the precipitation department. From November through January, we have equal chances of experiencing below average temperatures as we do above average temperatures. The Live Doppler 15 Fury Storm Team believes we'll stay in a dry pattern until the La Niña pattern gets fully established. When that happens during the second half of our winter, we're more likely to see more storm systems tracking through, increasing our precipitation potential.We have an increased probability that our temperature pattern will continue to be above average from November through January. However, when February is factored in, and we're most likely to have the La Niña pattern established, the precipitation outlook shows us more likely to experience wetter than average conditions. This is when we're most likely to have some of our coldest spells of winter, which means February could be the time we start to see the snow add up. We have a higher probability of experiencing above average precipitation once we get into the second half of the winter months. The rain/snow/ice we pick up during these months could offset the drier spells expected, at times, up through January. It's hard to pinpoint an exact total, but we should have no problem getting more snow than last year's 11.6", which was the third least snowy winter on record. The Live Doppler 15 Fury Storm Team expects northeast Indiana and northwest Ohio to see more snow this winter than last winter. However, we still may end up below our 33.6" average snow total. To get a potential view on what may come our way this winter, we went to the weather records to find other weak La Niña years that, also, started late in the year, and those criteria led us to only 1 year – the winter of 2005-2006. That year, we had 27.6 inches of snow - 6" below our current average, but more than double last year's total snow. The characteristics of Winter 2005-06 give us some hints as to how Winter 2024-25 may pan out. Like this year's winter season, Winter 2005-06 was a weak La Niña season that got started late in the calendar year. We're locking in our 2024-25 forecast based on the guidance we have from this comparable year and the likely La Niña pattern that will set up, again this time around.As a result, our WANE Winter Outlook calls for a winter that leans toward above average temperatures, significantly more snow than last year, though still below average, And overall total liquid precipitation contained in rain, snow, and ice to be near our average of 7" and, in turn, an easing of our drought conditions over the upcoming 3 months.Stay tuned to WANE 15 as we track our winter weather in the months ahead. With the potential for more snow this snow season, as compared to a year ago, Winter '24'-'25 will be more wintry than Winter '23-'24.