On Nov. 5, Donald Trump performed better in New York State than any Republican presidential candidate since 1988. Here are six myths about New York voters that the election exposed: Myth 1: Abortion was a not a silver bullet for Democrats Despite heavy spending on pro-abortion advertising and a successful Proposal 1 ballot measure, Kamala Harris’ margin over Trump in New York was only 12-points — half the 23-point wins of Joe Biden in 2020 and Hillary Clinton in 2016. New York exit polls show that abortion wasn’t the main driver of votes. In fact, 40% of voters said inflation was their top issue, and this group gave Trump 61% of their votes. Border security was the main issue for 32%, of whom 72% chose Trump. Only 28% cited abortion as the most important factor, with 79% of those voters supporting Harris. Like Gov. Hochul in 2022, the Harris campaign overestimated the impact of abortion. Myth 2: The gender gap was huge — advantage Harris It was widely expected that the gender gap would favor Harris, especially with abortion in the spotlight and the contrast between Trump’s and Harris’ rhetoric on women’s issues and overall behavior towards women. Yet, Harris’ support among women in New York was only one point higher than Biden’s in 2020. The real shift was among men, where Trump improved his performance by 27 points compared to Biden’s 2020 results, marking a significant swing away from Democrats. Myth 3: Harris had momentum and closed strong Democrats felt optimistic in the campaign’s final weeks, bolstered by a Siena College poll showing Harris with a 19-point lead in New York State and the disastrous and racist Trump rally at Madison Square Garden. However, Harris’ support dropped to a 12-point margin, and Trump edged her out among independents in N.Y., winning 49% to Harris’ 47%. Celebrity endorsements and anti-Trump fervor didn’t translate into votes, signaling that the anticipated late momentum failed to materialize. Myth 4: People of color unfailingly vote Democratic The idea that increasing diversity guarantees a Democratic future is a misconception. We often hear Democrats speak about “demographic destiny” and the “emerging majority” as trend lines that will lead to our lock of the Electoral College. This has proven to be so far elusive — something we have written about. In 2024, white voters made up 70% of New York’s electorate — a 10-point increase from 2020 and Trump grew his support among Black voters by 10 points and Latino voters by 13 points, winning 36% of voters identifying as “other.” These numbers underscore an urgent need for Democrats to reconsider their outreach strategies among communities of color, especially as we look to the future and see that 39% of Latinos aged 18 to 44 in New York backed Trump. Myth 5: Jewish voters are reliable Democrats It’s long been assumed that Jewish voters are a dependable Democratic constituency, a notion supported by national exit poll AP Vote Cast showing 69% of Jewish voters favoring Harris. But an exit poll of Jewish voters that our firm, Honan Strategy Group, conducted with Maury Litwack and the Teach Coalition/Jewish Voters Unite found that across the six key swing congressional districts in New York State, Harris only won 49% of Jewish voters and Donald Trump won 41% — a very weak 8-point margin. All this signals that Jewish voters, in the aftermath of Oct. 7 and with the rise of antisemitism, are far from a guaranteed Democratic base and are quickly becoming a decisive force in future elections. Myth 6: NYC’s turnout would overwhelm Trump Many expected New York City’s liberal base to turn out strongly against Trump, but that wasn’t the case. Votes from NYC’s five boroughs actually decreased by two percentage points as a share of the statewide total. Harris’ margin in the city was only 29%, and in Trump’s home borough of Queens, he captured 37% of the vote. The anticipated anti-Trump wave from New York City voters simply didn’t materialize as expected. The 2024 results in New York challenge traditional assumptions about voter dynamics. Economic anxiety and concerns about border security, not abortion, became major forces driving Trump’s support. Democrats now face an urgent need to re-evaluate how they campaign and engage voters, taking a harder look at the evolving priorities of New York’s diverse electorate. The way forward requires better understanding the complex identities and concerns shaping New York voters today. Honan and Zeche are partners at the Democratic polling and data analytics firm Honan Strategy Group. Honan is also co-president of the New York Metro Chapter of the American Association of Political Consultants and serves on the board of directors of the Public Relations Society of America’s New York Chapter.