Wildfire risk from upcoming Santa Ana winds greatly reduced by Friday’s rain
Nov 16, 2024
The speedy Alaskan storm that cut through San Diego County on Friday appears to have dropped enough rain in the backcountry to greatly reduce the chance that wildfires will break out when Santa Ana winds hit on Sunday and Tuesday.
Forecasters said that both wind events will be far weaker than expected, which could help San Diego Gas & Electric avoid the need to tell some of its customers that they might be subjected to temporary power outages.
“As of now, it does not look like the worst-case scenario is unfolding for San Diego,” said Brian D’Agostino, SDG&E’s vice president of wildfire and climate science.
An earlier forecast said that moderate-to-strong Santa Ana winds could sweep into San Diego County late Tuesday and last at least through Wednesday, making a red-flag fire warning necessary in some areas.
The updated forecast says that weak Santa Ana winds will blow through the region’s mountains and foothills on Sunday, followed by a moderate event on Tuesday and Wednesday. The weather service does not foresee the need for a red-flag warning. And the weaker nature of the dry, offshore winds means that coastal temperatures are no longer expected to rise into the 80s.
Friday’s storm generated big waves Saturday in Solana Beach. (Gary Robbins/San Diego Union-Tribune).
Friday’s storm dropped about 0.25 inches of rain in many areas of the back country and twice as much in such places as Mount Laguna and Lake Cuyamaca. The modest precipitation wasn’t enough to effectively bring the fire season to an end. But forecasters said it has made the ground wet enough to temporarily reduce the risk of wildfires.
Forecasters say the region might receive more rain starting around Nov. 24. But it is far from a certainty. And longer-term models currently do not indicate that San Diego County will get a major storm before Thanksgiving.