Three thoughts and more as the Bills get ready to play The Big One... Aim High The Chiefs have one of the best run defenses in the NFL. They are second in yards per carry allowed at only 3.7 per rush. The only other top 8 run defense Buffalo faced this year was the Ravens and that game ended with only 81 rush yards for the Bills. It was their second lowest total of the season. The good news for Buffalo is you can throw some on the Chiefs. Kansas City is 13th in net passing yards allowed per attempt. They are bottom quarter in sacks (Though, the Chiefs are 10th in pressure rate. Largely because they are the third most frequent blitzing team in the NFL). Their five interceptions are tied for the 6th least in the NFL. Bo Nix and the Broncos got KC for 215 passing yards last week with legends like Lil'Jordan Humphrey and Devaugh Vele as integral supporting receivers. That was a week after Baker Mayfield hit 200 yards without Mike Evans and Chris Godwin. The week before that, the Dead Men Walking Raiders got Gardiner Minshew over 200 passing yards. This needs to be a Josh Allen game. We're getting to the part of the season--and certainly the caliber of opponent--where the chapter of the playbook with called Allen runs becomes a larger chunk of the game plan. Allen also needs to have himself a day through the air. Trying to beat on the Chiefs front seven with James Cook and Ray Davis and Ty Johnson is probably a losing strategy. Edge of Opportunity The Chiefs offensive line is one of the best in the league. That goes especially up the middle with Creed Humphrey, Joe Thuney and Trey Smith. Ed Oliver and DaQuan Jones played better last week. Jordan Phillips and Quinton Jefferson have brought some juice, but this is still not a defensive tackle group the Bills have been able to count on as consistent threats. On the outside, that story gets much different. KC left tackle Wanya Morris is rated as one of the worst in the league by Pro Football Focus. BillsMafia's favorite false start artist, Jawaan Taylor, has been just ok at right tackle. The edges can be had. Greg Rousseau has sacks in his last two games and has been a weekly problem for opposing quarterbacks. Von Miller was creating sacks and headaches before his suspension. While there hasn't been as much in the two games since he returned, the potential for one game changing play is certainly there. Patrick Mahomes routinely shreds blitzes. I think the Bills best chance for troubling the Chiefs QB is rushes coming from the edge. Big Bass Advantage When was the last time the Bills had the better kicker in this matchup? They will this week. The Chiefs put Harrison Butker on injured reserve with a knee injury on Friday. Instead, Kansas City will be dropping a rookie kicker into the pressure cooker that is Bills v Chiefs. Spencer Shrader has exactly five kicks worth of NFL experience. He made three PATs in the season opener playing for the Colts. He made two field goals (from 25 and 45 yards) last week playing for the Jets. Shrader hasn't missed a pro kick, but none of his kicks have been anything close to relevant. And none of them have been at Highmark Stadium, which is one of the toughest buildings in the league for kickers. Tyler Bass has been good the last couple weeks. He should be far more comfortable and confident than Shrader, especially kicking in Buffalo. The Bills need Bass to press that advantage. Betting Things Joe Flacco got me in garbage time. His 85 passing yards on the final drive put Flacco up over his 229.5 yard line and handed me a second straight loss. I'm 4-6 for the year and 2.3 units in the red. It has not been a good month and a half. The Bills won't have Dalton Kincaid this week, so that should mean a bigger target share for Dawson Knox. No team allows more yards to tight ends than the Chiefs at 77.6 per game. For context, the fourth worst team allows only 60 yards per game. Knox's only 100 yard game of his career came against the Chiefs in 2021. He's scored TDs against them in three of the last six meetings. This is a team where Knox has often had success. His passing yards line is just 25.5 on FanDuel. I'm aiming bigger. Knox is +200 to reach 40 passing yards. That's a number he's hit in two of the last three games, even with Kincaid on the field. Knox has three catches of 20 yards or more in those last three weeks. He's always been a downfield threat. He's on a heater and has the opportunity this week. I'm going to play that +200. I also thought about the Knox anytime TD line (+320 at FanDuel). Either is a good idea. The Pick The Chiefs are 9-0, but have a good degree of smoke and mirrors to some of their wins. Recency bias with the miracle field goal block to beat Denver is likely a big part of that. Their schedule says that 9-0 start should be more respected, especially compared to Buffalo's 8-2 resume. Buffalo's best win so far (by quality of opponent) is, surprisingly and unquestionably, Arizona. The next best win is probably Miami or Seattle. Of the Chiefs nine wins, six are clearly better than any team Buffalo has beaten outside the Cardinals: Ravens, Bengals, Chargers, Broncos, Niners and Falcons. You might even be able to argue Tampa Bay into that conversation. This week is a step up for Buffalo. The Chiefs have been playing games at or close to this level all year. There's a world where the Chiefs are simply a notch or two better than the Bills and this game looks somewhat in the vicinity of the Buffalo loss to Baltimore and in the first quarter against Houston. I don't think that's what happens, but the difference in win quality is too stark to ignore. Kansas City's defense is generally seen as the strength of this team, but I'm not sure it's that clear. Even with the Mahomes, the offense ain't much to look at anymore. What they do is ruthlessly stay on the field. The Chiefs lead the NFL in ten-play drives. They are converting third downs at a historic rate. One 80 yard play and 20 four yard plays both still get you to the end zone. Outside creating turnovers, the Bills probably don't have the defense to totally shut Kansas City down and the Chiefs will likely get their 20-24 points. Buffalo needs to score with them. As mentioned above, this needs to be an Allen game. He can't do it alone. With the run game unlikely to be a strong supporting player, without Kincaid, without Keon Coleman, this likely needs to be the game where the Amari Cooper trade pays off. Cooper is still battling his left wrist injury. He indicated this week he would probably play with the light cast he's been wearing the last couple weeks. Cooper has said multiple times the biggest hurdle to playing is learning how to make catches with the cast on. I think Cooper finds a way to contribute. He's still going to be the best separator on the team. I think he and Allen showed enough instant chemistry to believe he can be the difference maker Buffalo needs this week. I think the Kansas City kicker situation is huge. The last four Bills-Chiefs matchups were decided by 3 points, 3 points, 4 points and in overtime. One kick could easily be the difference and Bass is the better option to believe in for this game. Finally, this is the regular season. The Bills own the Chiefs this time of year. Who am I to defy history? I'm taking the Bills 23-20.