AUSTIN (KXAN) — Slow-developing La Niña conditions are forecasted to develop in the late fall and winter months. The 2024 U.S Winter Outlook, issued by the Climate Prediction Center, states Texas will be warm and dry, due to the emerging La Niña influence on winter patterns. La Niña favors northern tracks of storms, which tend to keep colder airmasses north of Texas resulting in warmer and drier conditions. Colder and wetter pattern in Northern U.S. with limited cold air outbreaks in the south The U.S. Seasonal Drought Outlook, which examines drought tendencies during the winter months, suggests most of Texas will either have additional drought development or persisting droughts created during the 2024 fall months. However, scientists at NOAA are increasing confidence in a much weaker La Niña pattern this winter. A weak La Niña setup will allow much more temperature and precipitation fluctuations across the country. We found a few consistent trends when researching the Austin area mean temperature and total precipitation in weak La Niña winters (December to February). We examined four recent weak La Niña winters in the 1980s, 1990s, 2000s, and 2010s. Researching weak La Niña temperature trends We noticed weak La Niña winters aren't necessarily warmer than normal. Three out of the four winters examined had a cooler-than-average winter in the Austin area. There could be many reasons for this, for example, one prolonged cold air outbreak could drop the overall mean temperature during the winter months. Weak La Niña winters allow more fluctuation in the polar jet, which increases the odds of cold air outbreaks. When examining total precipitation during weak La Niña winters in the Austin area, there was a more consistent trend. Drier than normal trend for weak La Niña winters in the Austin area All four winters were drier than the average, with an outlier winter of 1883-1884 which produced 4.06" below the total precipitation average.