CHICOPEE, Mass. (WWLP) - It is now in the middle of November and the winter months are right around the corner.   As the days continue to get shorter, it is only a matter of time before the really cold temperatures and snow are in the forecast. When looking at a winter outlook, one of the first things meteorologists pay attention to is the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the region in the central Pacific Ocean off the coast of South America.  La Niña winter predicted: Could Massachusetts see more snow? When is the first day of winter? The first day of winter begins on Saturday, December 21st. When talking about winter you probably hear the terms El Nino and La Nina a lot. These are climate setups that occur in the eastern Pacific and constantly switch back and forth. El Nino is when you have warm waters in the equatorial Pacific while La Nina is cool waters in the equatorial Pacific. This year we will have a La Nina phase.  Now even though this is far away in the Pacific Ocean, it plays a big role on the jet stream here over North America. In a La Nina winter, the typical setup is a weaker polar jet stream that can dip further south into the United States and a stronger or more active Pacific jet stream that can bring more moisture into the lower 48 states of the USA.  Typically, this means more wet and active weather in the northeastern and northwestern half of the country and dry and warm weather in the southern half of the country.  When it comes to La Nina impacts in the Northeast, this usually means variable temperatures of cold and warm spells throughout the winter, the potential for more storms with that active Pacific jet stream, and a better chance for arctic outbreaks with the weaker Arctic jet stream.  The winter pattern can also come down to whether it is a strong or weak La Nina. This winter, it is leaning more towards a weaker La Nina.  In an outlook by NOAA, the temperature outlook for December, January, and February leans towards above-average temperatures in the southern and eastern half of the country and that includes western Massachusetts.  Meanwhile, out west in the Pacific Northwest and the Rockies, they lean towards below-average temperatures. When it comes to precipitation for December, January, and February, NOAA leans more towards above-average precipitation for the northern and eastern half of the country with below-average precipitation for the southern half of the county.  This includes above-average precipitation for western Massachusetts. Now this does not mean all precipitation will be snow, it can be rain, sleet, snow, or a mix of everything. It just highlights the chance of seeing a more active pattern this winter with a higher risk of storms. What you should do to make your snowblower last longer When is it going to snow in Massachusetts? November is also known to be the beginning of significant snowfalls in New England. Here in the Pioneer Valley, the average snow is 2.5 inches in November.  So, make sure your snowblower works and the heat in your house is ready to go because winter is right around the corner.   Local News Headlines Deadline: REAL ID enforcement goes into effect in six months Coffee & Conversation event connects veterans in Chicopee Police seized 16 kilograms of fentanyl, Lawrence woman sentenced Final environmental study released on replacing aging F-15 aircraft at Barnes ANGB in Westfield WWLP-22News, an NBC affiliate, began broadcasting in March 1953 to provide local news, network, syndicated, and local programming to western Massachusetts. Watch the 22News Digital Edition weekdays at 4 p.m. on WWLP.com.