The CHSAA state football playoffs are down to 16 teams in the top three classifications. Here’s a look at this weekend’s slate in all three with quarterfinal spots up for grabs. Class 5A The chalk Upsets happen all the time in prep football. But in regards to these matchups, we’ll go with “highly unlikely” the underdog wins. No. 17 Grandview (6-5) at No. 1 Cherry Creek (9-1), 7 p.m. Friday: The Bruins have played for the 5A championship six straight years and won four. They’re loaded with FBS talent once again, and the last time these two met in Week 10, Creek piled up 466 yards in a 35-18 win. No. 20 Cherokee Trail (5-6) at No. 4 Columbine (9-1), 3:30 p.m., Saturday: Cherokee Trail pulled a stunner in the first round with a 25-7 win over Castle View, but the Rebels are an entirely different animal. Only one team has held their “caveman” offense below 34 points: No. 6 Legend. No. 15 Fossil Ridge (7-4) at No. 2 Mountain Vista (10-0), 7 p.m. Friday: Fossil Ridge may be the one team that would welcome a shootout with Mountain Vista. Senior QB Nick Kubat (2,847) is second in the state to MV’s Austyn Modrzewski (2,936) in passing yards — albeit with an extra game played. The problem: The Golden Eagles’ defense (6.8 points allowed/game) might also be the best in the state. No. 11 Arapahoe (8-3) at No. 6 Legend (9-1), 7 p.m. Friday: Arapahoe has taken care of the teams it’s supposed to, but is 1-3 against teams still alive in the 5A bracket. Monte Thelen’s Titans have given up 17 points in their last seven games — total. A tall order for the Warriors. The toss-ups The reward for winning these games? A date with one of the two 5A powers that have looked indestructible all fall. No. 9 Erie (9-2) at No. 8 Pine Creek (7-3), 7 p.m. Friday: The reigning 4A champion Erie Tigers’ offense has been as prolific as ever (39.3 points, 339.4 yards/game) after the move up to 5A. But the Pine Creek defense (15.8 points allowed/game) may be the toughest they’ve faced since a 55-12 Week 3 loss to Mountain Vista. No. 10 Chatfield (8-3) at No. 7 Fairview (10-0), 7 p.m. Friday: Now is the time for Fairview to prove its unbeaten record isn’t just the product of a light schedule. Consider Chatfield, loaded with young talent led by sophomore dual-threat QB Cash Williams, a worthy first-round test. Upset watch Three double-digit seeds reached the 5A quarterfinals last season, so there’s plenty of precedent for second-round wackiness. No. 12 Regis Jesuit (6-5) at No. 5 Valor Christian (9-1), 11 a.m., Saturday: The state’s top private school powers meet for the sixth time in four years. Valor won three of the previous five, including a Week 1 matchup (17-0) that was Regis QB Luke Rubley’s first varsity start. Just how much has the freshman wunderkind improved since? We’re about to find out. No. 14 Arvada West (7-4) at No. 3 Ralston Valley (9-1), noon, Saturday: How does a No. 3 seed fall into this category? Simple: The last time these two played in Week 10, A-West outgained the Mustangs 360-279 and took a 7-3 lead into the fourth quarter. This could be a dogfight. Class 4A The chalk Would it be shocking if any of the top five seeds in 4A won the whole thing? Nope. That’s why all five of them are here.  No. 17 Loveland (5-6) at No. 1 Dakota Ridge (9-1), noon Saturday: Loveland is on a roll after winning four of five, including a 45-14 drubbing of Doherty last week. But Dakota Ridge, riding a nine-game win streak just one of those games decided by less than 17, is a runaway freight train. No. 15 Frederick (8-3) at No. 2 Montrose (10-0), 1 p.m. Saturday: We doff our cap in the direction of Frederick, the one community that actually had the guts to play a snow game in last Friday’s snowpocalypse. Unfortunately, the Golden Eagles’ well-plowed road ends on the Western Slope. No. 19 Golden (6-5) at No. 3 Pueblo West (9-1), 1 p.m. Saturday: Golden showed a lot of grit the last two weeks with two very different types of wins over Highlands Ranch (50-41) and Riverdale Ridge (17-14), but the Cyclones are simply too sturdy on both sides of the ball. No. 13 Rampart (7-4) at No. 4 Palmer Ridge (9-1), 1 p.m. Saturday: It could be argued Palmer Ridge has been the most consistent program in 4A since joining the classification in 2020, going 50-6 over that period with two title game trips. The Bears thumped Rampart, 50-13, three weeks ago. Is another deep November run on tap? No. 12 Vista Ridge (7-4) at No. 5 Broomfield (9-1), 10 a.m. Saturday: Vista Ridge faced an absolute gauntlet of a schedule with five of its regular-season opponents still alive in the 5A and 4A playoffs. Did those tests harden them for a date with a Broomfield team that faced a much less daunting slate? The toss-up There’s just one game in this category for 4A?!?! Really?!?!? Yes, really. No. 9 Grand Junction (10-1) at No. 8 Ponderosa (7-3), 1 p.m. Saturday: Grand Junction’s turnaround from 2-8 last season to 10 wins this fall is one of the best stories in the state. Can the Tigers keep it going against a Pondo team that found another gear with senior RB De’alcapon Veazy? Upset watch This might be a tough year for 4A’s double-digit seeds given the strength at the top. But never say never. Especially with teenagers.  No. 11 Heritage (6-5) at No. 6 Durango (7-3), 1 p.m. Saturday: Heritage waited until Monday to play its first-round game — and promptly dumped 62 points on Air Academy. It was the Eagles’ third 60-point game in four weeks. Translation: Durango’s defense is in for a serious test. No. 10 Monarch (9-2) at No. 7 Mesa Ridge (7-3), 6 p.m. Friday: Normally, we wouldn’t consider a No. 10 beating a No. 7 an “upset,” but Mesa Ridge isn’t a normal 7 seed. The Grizzlies hung with the best of the best in 4A. If Monarch takes them down for a seventh straight win, it would be a stunner. Class 3A The chalk There’s no such thing as a guarantee in 3A, but consider these top seeds the best of the best in what should be a wildly entertaining bracket. No. 16 Holy Family (6-4) at No. 1 Thompson Valley (10-0), 1 p.m. Saturday: Thompson Valley took down Pomona in a 16-7 defensive slugfest last Saturday to claim the bracket’s top seed. The Eagles’ reward for the most impressive win in 3A to date? A date with the defending 3A champs. No. 15 Pueblo South (6-4) at No. 2 Mead (8-1), 1 p.m. Saturday: Mead’s bid for an unbeaten season was denied in a Week 10 loss to Windsor. Last week’s snowstorm gave the Mavericks a gift in the form of a late-season bye. Enough time for the Mavs to regain their mojo? No. 14 Conifer (7-3) at No. 3 Pomona (7-3), 3:30 p.m. Saturday: Pomona learned just how hard it’s going to be to claim a 3A title with last week’s loss at Thompson Valley. Still, with a defense like the Panthers have (12.4 points allowed/game), they’re going to be one tough out. No. 11 Mountain View (6-4) at No. 6 Windsor (9-1), 1 p.m. Saturday: So, Windsor went into Mead’s house, beat the Mavericks with a smothering defensive effort and ended up with the No. 6 seed and a date with sneaky tough Mountain View for its troubles? Maybe it’s time to reboot the computer that spits out the CHSAA RPI. The toss-ups As one might suspect, the 8-9 and 7-10 matchups figure to produce drama.  No. 9 Pueblo East (8-2) at No. 8 Discovery Canyon (8-2), 1 p.m. Saturday: These two teams met way back in Week 2 — a game that Discovery Canyon controlled from start to finish en route to a 32-14 win. So how is this a toss-up? Pueblo East has been an entirely different team since. No. 10 Lutheran (9-1) at No. 7 Pueblo Central (8-2), 1 p.m. Saturday: Sympathies to Pueblo Central, which earned the No. 7 seed into the bracket only to draw a Lutheran program that’s reached the 3A semifinals or better each of the last three years. The Lions’ lone loss this fall was to 4A No. 3 Pueblo West. Another epic CHSAA RPI fail. Upset watch This is the classification where we come for chaos. Last year, three of eight first-round games were won by the lower seed. Will we see more carnage this year? No. 13 Severance (4-6) at No. 4 Palisade (8-2), 6 p.m. Friday: Is Severance the best four-win team in the state, pound-for-pound? Given how competitive the Silver Knights were against 4A Riverdale Ridge (13-8), No. 1 Thompson Valley (6-0), No. 3 Pomona (20-7), No. 6 Windsor (21-7) and No. 12 Roosevelt (10-9), the answer is a resounding “yes.” No. 12 Roosevelt (6-4) at No. 5 Green Mountain (7-3), 7 p.m. Friday: Consider this a nod to the 3A football factory Lane Wasinger has built in Johnstown. Nobody is more battle-tested than the Rough Riders, who played seven teams still alive in the state playoffs. A tough draw for a Green Mountain team that’s won five straight.