As of this typing, every Great Lake not named Lake Superior is running near or above recent historically warm temperatures (data going back around 30 years to 1995). Every Great Lake not named Superior is running at/above record warm temperatures (using ~30 data back to 1995). The implications of this reality could prove significant if/when cold air finally decides to invade. Warm lakes + cold air = big lake effect snow potential. pic.twitter.com/NadvANYhWu— Eric Snitil (@EricSnitilWx) November 11, 2024 While it's not uncommon for lake temperatures to fluctuate higher and lower over relatively short timeframes, the fact we're having this conversation in November brings up some interesting implications for lake effect season. Lake Erie average water temperatures are still in the upper 50s (with small pockets of still 60° water) with Lake Ontario averaging lower 50s. Both of these metrics take the top spot for warmest water temps on November 11 through 1995. While ~30 years of comparative data is a drop in the bucket, it does highlight the reality that our two most important Great Lakes (to our local weather) are most certainly running quite warm...again. While there are many variables that ultimately prove important for lake effect snow, lake temperatures are certainly a big one. Lake effect is driven by lake-induced instability, the notion of warmth below and cold air above. All else being equal, if our lakes run warm, we're able to increase that instability, allowing lake effect snow to theoretically have more energy to play with. The issue, however, presents in our capacity for Mother Nature to actually start delivering some cold to take advantage of that potential. It's like we're sitting on a big pile of fireworks but no one has a match to light the fuse. The above reality only becomes important if & when that cold air is able to serve as the ignition. So far, that hasn't occurred yet. While there are some signs of possible change toward the end of the month, these signals have been fairly loose within an overall regime of still milder temperatures. It is inevitable we will start seeing colder air in some capacity sooner versus later. That much is certain. But there are no guarantees we see the caliber of cold (actual temps, duration, etc.) to fully allow for the warm lake situation to be exploited. From an impact standpoint, here's to hoping we can keep it that way. Regardless of the arrival of said fuse, I'm not entirely at ease sitting in a proverbial warehouse full of fireworks. If that cold does come, we're primed for quite a show.