Three things clouding my thoughts on the long drive down to Indy... Stops Start At Top It has not been a good year for Ed Oliver and DaQuan Jones. To be fair, "not good" is relative to how high those guys have set the bar the last couple years. The truth is Oliver and Jones are not winning or occupying blocks at the same rate as years past. All those fast, athletic, but lighter players the Bills stock in their linebacker room are getting exposed. It's the number one issue with Buffalo's run defense. (It's also not something Matt Milano will fix a ton. As great as he is, he's not fighting off a guard with a clean shot at him much better than all the other LBs his size). The Bills have another tough test in the run game this week with the Colts. Indy is top ten in yards per carry and they have one of the elite backs in Jonathan Taylor. It has not been his best year, but Taylor still has five TDs and three 100-yard games in six starts. There are still plenty of Bills who remember him going for 185 and four scores in a Colts rout at Highmark Stadium three years ago. Buffalo brought back Jordan Phillips and Quinton Jefferson this week after adding Zion Logue last month. Neither of those new guys are better against the run than the pass and they should not be expected to be an instant solution. The Bills can cycle through all the backup defensive tackles they want. They won't get better against the run until they get better play from the guys at the top of that interior depth chart. Protect The Dang Ball The Colts don't do a lot well, but they do force turnovers. Indy has taken the ball away 15 times so far (same as the Bills) and that's good for fourth best in the league. Of their four wins, they forced at least two turnovers in three of them. The lone exception was beating the lowly Titans with just one turnover. Indianapolis has created a turnover in every game this year except their season opener. This might be a classic situation where the only way a lesser talented team can compete is to win the turnover battle. Buffalo's four giveaways are second least in the league. Protect the ball again and the Bills very likely protect a win. Return Of The Mack? The Bills won't have Keon Coleman this week and probably for one or two more. Amari Cooper is questionable. Even if he plays, it's hard to expect a huge impact from a guy still learning the offense and battling an injury at the same time. Mack Hollins might be underrated as a possible replacement option. He's been one of the Bills better separators and it's a reason he's been earning penalties the last few weeks. Another reason is Hollins won't be afraid to lay it on thick convincing an official he's been interfered with or held. He's also been fairly clutch this season. All three of his touchdowns have come on third or fourth and goal. The Colts defense isn't great. James Cook, Khalil Shakir and Dalton Kincaid could easily do enough for a Bills win. For one week, against this particular secondary, I think the Bills will be just fine relying on Hollins for depth production at receiver. Betting Things One bleeping yard. That's all Tyreek Hill beat his receiving yards total by and what cost me a win last week. I'm now 4-5 for the year picking props and in the red 1.3 units. We soldier on. The more I thought about this game, the easier it got to decide on a play. The Bills are one of the best defenses in the league against passes (not to running backs). According to this chart, Christian Benford and Rasul Douglas are both among the top ten at preventing separation in single coverage (Charts like this are everywhere on social media. To the point where I wonder if they create more confusion than conclusion. But the eyeball test on Benford and Douglas is the same). The Colts best receiver, Michael Pittman, won't even play in this game. I like slot receiver Josh Downs a lot and Taylor is dangerous out of the backfield, but the rest of the Indy pass catchers are pedestrian at best. The Joe Flacco passing yards line (as of Friday night) is 229.5. Flacco has a gunslinger reputation. An old head QB who knows all the angles and isn't afraid to play them. Yet, he's only topped even 200 yards in one of his four games this year (the first was replacing Anthony Richardson, but Flacco still played the last three full quarters). The Bills, for their part, have only allowed QBs to reach 230 yards passing in three of their nine games. A good chunk of that is because Buffalo is so easy to run on and that Taylor guy should make rushing the ball a priority for the Colts this week. We don't need any more reasons to take the under, but it should not be ignored that the 39 year-old Flacco is always a high risk not to finish a game. I grabbed odds of -115 at MGM, but every book had something similar. It almost looks like too good a play. The Pick The Colts are one of the most blah teams in the NFL. They're 4-5. They aren't top ten or bottom ten in most statistical categories. Flacco, the receivers and the pass rush all have individuals of note (DeForest Buckner has 3.5 sacks in just four games played), but there's nothing there that's causing Bills coaches to lose any sleep this week. Without Pittman, Bobby Babich is going to hit the pillow even faster this weekend. There is a concern the Bills get caught looking ahead to Kansas City this week. They are still human beings. McDermott has always done a good job of keeping his team level headed and focused on the task at hand, but the Bills have spent the last month toying with the NFL flotsam. Next week's tussle with KC was circled on every calendar in Orchard Park even before the Chiefs started 8-0. Even with the Colts at home, the spread is a curiously low four points. A good reason for that spread is that Indianapolis is the only team left in the NFL who has not played a game decided by more than one score. Last week's 21-13 loss to the Vikings was their biggest "blowout" of the season. Indy has hung in against the Texans (twice), Minnesota and were one of two teams so far this year to beat the Steelers. This feels like a game where the Bills will, somehow, find a way. They did a good job getting contributions from all over last week against Miami. You'd think Tyler Bass would have the mojo back after his 61 yard rip to win the game at the end (I'm actually VERY interested to find out if he does). I won't test Indy's trend of keeping all their games in doubt to the end, but I will pick the Bills 27-20.