How Onondaga County’s Democrats and Republicans each found disappointment in 2024’s elections
Nov 09, 2024
A defeated Brigit Burt stood with her daughter at an election party hosted by Onondaga County Democrats at Harvey’s Garden, eyes glued to the television. Burt said she was happy local Democrats nearly swept downballot races.But tears dotted her cheeks. For every win by local Democrats, there were more wins for Donald Trump. She was crushed at the notion of living another four years in his America.Others in the crowd shared Burt’s anxieties. What would the next four years hold for the LGBTQ+ community? What would happen to immigrants and migrants? What would become of the country?Burt felt safer in New York, she said, but she wondered about others like her genderqueer daughter across the country. “I don’t think there are any limits,” Burt said.Doom and gloom defined election night — doom for Democrats and gloom for Republicans. Not even winning New York’s 22nd Congressional District, a goal that Democrats have been eyeing since 2014, could serve as consolation for losing the presidency. But the same held true for Republican officials. Winning the presidency didn’t serve as consolation for a local wipeout. Republicans lost every local race besides the race for New York State Assembly’s 126th District. Almost 3.5 miles west of the Democrats’ party, at the Embassy Suites Hotel, county Republicans faced down the local losses. Early enthusiasm over positive results for Trump gave way to the letdown of Rep. Brandon Williams’ loss to John Mannion in NY-22. The Republicans had held the seat since 2015. David Stern, a fourth-generation Air Force veteran who volunteered for Williams’ campaign, said he was disappointed. Williams had lost a race Republicans felt should have at least been more competitive. With 98% of the votes counted, Williams is down by about 30,000 votes, according to the Associated Press’ unofficial results.“I’m blown away by the margin, but that’s the people speaking,” Stern said minutes after Williams conceded. “Gotta respect that.” ‘I think we all in this room feel about the same way’Two jumbo televisions flanked the center of an events space at SKY Armory in downtown Syracuse. One featured a local election day broadcast, the other a national one. Throughout the night, the attendees to Mannion’s invite-only party — regional and local labor leaders, a select group of elected officials, and campaign staff — passively looked at national results. All eyes were on the race for NY-22 with occasional cheers from the crowd whenever there was an update on Mannion’s results. Then, at around 11 p.m., and to the tune of “Small Town” by John Mellencamp, Mannion and his family came out to overwhelming cheers. The Associated Press had already deemed Mannion’s lead in the race insurmountable. Credit: Surya Vaidy | Central CurrentCredit: Surya Vaidy | Central CurrentCredit: Surya Vaidy | Central CurrentCredit: Surya Vaidy | Central CurrentCredit: Surya Vaidy | Central CurrentCredit: Surya Vaidy | Central CurrentCredit: Surya Vaidy | Central CurrentCredit: Surya Vaidy | Central Current“I think we all in this room feel about the same way,” Mannion said to open his victory speech surrounded by family and political surrogates. “We’re really happy. We just won NY-22. And we should be.”Onondaga County Democratic Committee Chair Max Ruckdeschel agreed with Mannion in an interview with Central Current on Wednesday, unpacking Democrats’ wins and failures. He said Mannion’s victory was a resounding success, partially because Onondaga County is the biggest population center in the district, which also includes all of Madison County and parts of Cortland, Cayuga, and Oneida counties. Mannion won by more than 8% of the vote. About 67% of his total votes came from Onondaga County. “Winning so handily in Onondaga County really propelled him to victory,” Ruckdeschel said. “We’re happy to really be such a strong part of that.”Mannion was successful because of a growing number of registered Democrats in the county, name recognition, and track record in the state Legislature, Ruckdeschel said. Earlier this month, county Democrats broke enrollment records for the second time in four years. This year there were about 120,240 registered Democrats, compared to 118,324 in 2020. Ruckdeschel also highlighted Mannion’s experience as a two-term senator as a key factor helping flip NY-22. “The last time we had someone run for Congress that had been elected to any office was when Dan Maffei was running in 2014,” he said. “Having somebody with name recognition is incredibly important.”Downballot races in the state legislature were also key to what party leadership considered a successful night. Democrats won all but one of said contests, helping the party retain its supermajority in the State Legislature. John Lemondes, the Republican assemblyman, retained his seat against Democrat Ian Phillips in the 126th State Assembly District. Ruckdeschel said there are signs of growing Democratic strength in the county even in airtight state Legislature races. The race between Democrat Chris Ryan and Republican Nick Paro for the State Senate’s 50th District seat is an example of that, he added. The contest, which is headed to a recount, was projected to be a challenge for Democrats, as the district is home to almost 3,000 more registered Republicans than Democrats, according to New York State Board of Elections data. The district covers parts of Onondaga County and Oswego County.About 98% of the votes in the district have been counted and Ryan holds a lead of about 500 votes or .34%, according to unofficial results. The vote is within the .5% vote margin that would trigger a recount.Ryan is the Onondaga County Legislature minority leader and Paro is the town of Salina supervisor.“Two years ago, the margin in that race was never in triple digits, and this time it is,” Ruckdeschel said. Mannion won the seat in 2022 by a margin of about 10 votes in a saga that involved a meticulous recount. Ryan outperformed OCDC’s expectations, Ruckdeschel said.“We made progress in that district with a new candidate against a well-funded opponent. Paro had a very strong backing from the local Republicans,” he said. “Paro is an elected official in the town of Salina and a much tougher opponent than the ones Mannion faced the last two times he ran.”Credit: Arthur Maiorella | Central CurrentCredit: Arthur Maiorella | Central CurrentCredit: Arthur Maiorella | Central CurrentCredit: Arthur Maiorella | Central CurrentCredit: Arthur Maiorella | Central CurrentCredit: Arthur Maiorella | Central CurrentCredit: Arthur Maiorella | Central Current“The problem is, Trump’s not popular in Onondaga County”At the Embassy Suites event room, two screens displayed the dueling narratives depicting the GOP’s night: national victories on the left, a stunning defeat on the right. Joe Carni, who chairs the Onondaga County Republican Committee, called the night a “mixed bag” for the party.Carni felt good about Trump’s lead, and pointed to Assemblyman Lemondes’ victory in the Assembly’s 126th District as another positive for the local Republican Party. Beyond these successes, though, there was little for the local GOP to celebrate.The party won just one local race and also lost its fight to block Proposition 1, an amendment that aimed to enshrine abortion and trans rights in the state constitution. Some of the attendees were volunteers on local campaigns and didn’t fully relish in Trump’s victory. The party never reached a crescendo. Whatever joy had been mounting drained from the party after Williams’ concession. Carni had been optimistic that the party’s embrace of early voting could lead to historic wins for local Republicans. “We didn’t put a push on the early voting,” Carni said of the 2020 election cycle. “This time around, we really did, and reached out to a lot of different lower propensity voters, and were able to encourage people to come out and try it.”Early in the night, Carni said he believed Paro’s resume and reception from the community could carry him past Ryan. But by the end of the night, it appeared Paro would lose the race.Credit: Mike Greenlar | Central CurrentCredit: Mike Greenlar | Central CurrentCredit: Mike Greenlar | Central CurrentCredit: Mike Greenlar | Central CurrentCredit: Mike Greenlar | Central CurrentCredit: Mike Greenlar | Central CurrentCredit: Mike Greenlar | Central CurrentWoodruff Carroll, a lawyer who volunteered on the Williams campaign, blamed Trump himself for the downballot Republicans’ losses. “I worked hard on the Williams campaign, and they did a good job,” Carroll said. “The problem is, Trump’s not popular in Onondaga County.”In Onondaga County, Harris earned roughly 57% of the vote. Carroll and other watch party attendees attributed local Republicans’ losses to voters’ animus for the top of the ticket – arguing that proximity to Trump, real or assumed, cost some of the down-ballot candidates their races.Compared to the bittersweet mood of many other party attendees, Charles Iavarone was in good spirits. Iavarone is a disabled Army veteran who attends the Republican election watch party every year, volunteering as a data analyst for local races.Iavarone echoed Carroll’s assessment that Trump may have hurt local Republicans. In the NY-22 race, though, Iavorone thought the results reflected Mannion’s inroads with local voters rather than a rebuke of Trump.Republicans are set to control the presidency, the U.S. Senate, and have a good chance to garner enough seats to hold a majority in the House of Representatives as of Saturday.“I’m hopeful that we’ll be able to put some policies in place that help address some of the economic issues that we’ve been facing,” Carni said. Trump’s presidency, he claimed, signified a time of economic prosperity that featured lower gas prices and an overall cheaper cost of living.“We had a booming economy,” Carni said. ‘I really haven’t thought of that message’As the 2024 election cycle closed, Micron became one of the presidential race’s most pressing local issues. Trump and House Speaker Mike Johnson signaled in the campaign’s last weeks they may want to repeal the CHIPS and Science Act — the key incentive for Micron to invest in Central New York. “At the county level, we have a lot of eggs in the Micron basket,” said Onondaga County Legislator Maurice Brown, a Democrat. “What is our plan B?”Mannion, who seemed less concerned with losing Micron, said Wednesday he hopes Trump’s comments are campaign talk. “Republicans and Democrats at every level of government … came together to get something done in a political climate that is very difficult to get things done, and we did it for our own national security and for the good of our community,” Mannion said. “This wasn’t just someone’s idea at the last minute. It was negotiated.”A scene from the Onondaga County Democratic Committee watch party at Harvey’s Garden in Syracuse, NY on November 5. Credit: Arthur Maiorella | Central CurrentLocal Republicans believe Trump’s statements are just rhetoric. “I think we are far along enough in the process that we don’t have to worry about it,” Carni said. Losing Micron’s billion dollar investment could be catastrophic for local Republicans. The promised economic boost would wilt before it ever blossomed. It is also the cornerstone of some Republicans’ political futures, like Onondaga County Executive Ryan McMahon. He has touted Micron’s arrival as a crowning achievement of his administration and an example of bipartisan prowess. McMahon repeatedly called landing Micron the area’s “Erie Canal moment.”Though the Micron deal has progressed, little is currently in place that prevents Micron from pulling out of the region. Since election night, local Republicans have presented a united front of faith that Trump and Speaker Johnson will not threaten Micron’s arrival.Some Democrats see a much more threatening future, one that matches Brigit Burt’s anxieties. Democrats feel they are about to face unprecedented times. Some would like to protect migrants and members of the LGBTQ+ community in Central New York.Mannion sees that as his responsibility because he’ll be the county’s direct representative in Washington. The next two years will demand courage from elected officials to stand up to Trump, he said. “It’s a challenge, but it is about sticking to what you know is the right thing to do and standing up, informing your constituents that this is a bad deal, and then building a coalition, regardless of party, to try to oppose it,” Mannion said.Democrats on election night echoed their constituents’ concerns that Trump’s rhetoric had grown hostile. Mannion hoped that too was just talk. Part of Democrats’ anguish stems from the prospect of Trump abolishing the electoral systems that maintain America’s representative democracy. They fear Trump could be the last democratically elected president, rhetoric that was adopted by Democrats up and down the ticket. “I like living in a democracy,” a distraught Stan Domozyk said at the Democrats’ election party. Domozyk is a Liverpool Democrat and a former workers compensation, social security, and unemployment appeals lawyer.While Mannion argued for courage against Trump, he also tried to strike a balance. He said bipartisanship would mark his first term in office. When asked Wednesday morning about Trump’s rhetoric, Ruckdeschel, the Democratic party leader, gave constituents little solace. “That is not a question that I have an answer to at this moment, I really haven’t thought of that message,” Ruckdeschel said. “… Some things are unfortunately decided in Washington that are beyond our local control.”Danita Emma, left, watches NBC election nigth coverage at the Onondaga County Democratic Committee watch party at Harvey’s Garden in Syracuse, NY on November 5. Emma says she feels “nauseated’ by the national results so far. Credit: Arthur Maiorella | Central Current
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