What’s Next For The Economy Under A Second Trump Term
Nov 09, 2024
Exit polls show the economy was a key factor in Donald Trump’s 2024 Presidential election win and a major liability for the incumbent Democratic Party.
The economy loomed large in the 2024 Presidential election.
Despite low unemployment and economic growth, about two-thirds of voters described the U.S. economy as “not good” or “poor,” according to CNN exit polls.
“What’s happening in the economy right now and how people feel about the economy is, in some ways, a little bit disconnected,” Lending Tree Senior Economist Jacob Channel said.
Inflation has cooled from a four-decade peak of 9.1% in June 2022 and is closer to the Fed’s target rate of two percent. The sting of higher prices has endured.
“Generally speaking, it got more expensive to live your day-to-day life,” Channel said.
President-elect Donald Trump campaigned on reducing inflation and taxes. But Mark Zandi, Chief Economist for Moody’s Analytics, warns too many tax cuts could boost inflation.
“They’re financed by borrowing money, deficit financed. That’s going to juice things up, and that causes inflation as well,” Zandi said.
Trump’s plan for tariffs on imported goods are still being fully sketched. But Channel says Trump needs to be cautious with his plans to deport millions of undocumented workers.
“If you implement a bunch of tariffs, at the same time, drastically reducing the United States’ labor force, you’re probably going to end up with higher prices,” Channel said.
Voter sentiment aside, Zandi says Trump has a solid economic starting point.
“He’s getting a very good economy, and hopefully he’s a good steward of that economy going forward,” Zandi said.