NEW ORLEANS (WGNO) — Rafael is now a category two storm as it moves west-northwest in the southeastern Gulf. The storm was dealing with dry air earlier in the day but now an eye is beginning to appear and it looks like strong thunderstorm activity is once again developing in the northern half. This indicates the storm is continuing to try and strengthen despite somewhat less than favorable conditions. The current forecast from the National Hurricane Center is basically unchanged from the past day or two. The bulks of the forecast models indicate Rafael moving west around a ridge of high pressure across the northern Gulf, and eventually even moving southwest by early next week. The caveat continues to be the GFS model which indicates the storm will turn to the north over the weekend thanks to a trough that is moving in from the west. Right now this is still an outlier but something that needs to be watched. If this were to occur the storm would weaken very quickly thanks to drier air and wind shear, so even if it does drift closer to us the impacts would be on the low side. Coastal flooding would increase, but otherwise we would just see rain with some blustery conditions. As it stands now on the current track we likely wouldn't see any rain directly from Rafael, but still have some showers around the area on Sunday into Monday. Boating plans would still be discouraged offshore either way due to wind and higher swells. Continue to stay with WGNO on air and online for the latest. Stay up to date with the latest news, weather and sports by downloading the WGNO app on the Apple or Google Play stores and by subscribing to the WGNO newsletter. Latest Posts Advancements in DNA testing helps solve 26-year-old Morgan City cold case Independence man arrested, faces 20 child porn charges No. 11 Alabama meets No. 14 LSU in a showcase of how the new CFP means more high-stakes games Trump picks Susie Wiles for White House chief of staff St. Tammany Parish Council considering mandatory spay-neuter ordinance