John Carroll football’s NCAA DIII hopes boosted by expanded playoffs
Nov 07, 2024
In any other season but this one, the John Carroll football team would likely be playing out the rest of its regular season.
But as JCU coach Jeff Berhman likes to say, “Playing any football game is a privilege.”
The next two for the Blue Streaks will indeed be a privilege. That’s because there is plenty at stake — thanks to the NCAA Division III playoffs expanding its field from 32 to 40 teams this season.
For the first time, the D-III playoffs will feature four 10-team brackets with 28 conference champion automatic bids and 12 at-large — officially named Pool C — bids. Other new factors include:
• There will be 24 teams getting a bye into Round 2 with the remaining 16 playing in Round 1. The eight first-round winners advance to play the top two two seeds in each of the four regions.
• The NCAA — which previously didn’t not reveal seeds on bracket lines — will rank the top eight overall seeds in the bracket.
In early September, the Blue Streaks began their season 0-2 with losses at traditional D-III powers Wisconsin-Whitewater and Mount Union. Playoffs were likely the last thing anyone within the JCU program was discussing. Since then, the Blue Streaks have won six straight and have a lot to play for the next two weeks at Don Shula Stadium.
There will also be some scoreboard watching — whether JCU folks admit it or not.
First, the Blue Streaks must win their final two games. It begins Nov. 9 at home against Otterbein, which is 1-7 this season and has averaged nine points in its losses. JCU will be a huge favorite this weekend.
If the Blue Streaks take care of business this weekend, what happens in Alliance on Nov. 9 will be significant when Marietta plays at JCU on Nov. 16.
Here are the Marietta-Mount scenarios, and if JCU wins vs. Otterbein and is 7-2 head into its regular-season finale against Marietta:
• If Mount (8-0, 7-0 OAC) wins, it clinches the outright OAC title and the automatic NCAA D-III playoff bid with OAC wins over Marietta and JCU. In this scenario, the following week the 8-1 Pioneers and 7-2 Blue Streaks will likely be playing for one of the 12 Pool C at-large playoff spots. We’ll explain why in a bit.
• If Marietta records a stunning upset of the Purple Raiders, things get murky for JCU’s playoff hopes. In this scenario, the Pioneers would clinch at least a share of the OAC and would need a win against the Blue Streaks to clinch it outright. A JCU win against Marietta in this scenario creates a three-way tie for the OAC title at 8-1 among the Blue Streaks, Mount and Pioneers. Per OAC tiebreaker rules, the head football coaches would then vote which team gets the NCAA automatic bid.
A few possibilities could be in play if a vote occurred in this scenario:
• Overall, Mount and Marietta would be 9-1 and JCU 8-2. A vote for the Blue Streaks could produce a case in which JCU is the auto bid team and the Purple Raiders and Pioneers (with better NCAA resumes than the Blue Streaks) are at-large selections — getting three OAC teams in the playoffs. If that’s the choice (with JCU leaving the OAC after 2023-24), it would be interesting, to say the least.
• If Mount or Marietta is awarded the auto bid in the event of a three-way tie, JCU could be on the bubble for a Pool C bid. The OAC has never had three teams make the NCAA D-III football playoffs in a single season.
The NCAA Power Index has been unveiled this season as the new tool for the D-III selection committee. NPI formula takes into account a team’s winning percentage, strength of schedule, whether a win was at home or on the road, gives bonuses for quality wins and sets a win minimum for each team at five.
This weeks’ ratings has Mount at No. 9, Marietta at No. 16 and JCU No. 46. According to D3football.com, teams ranked within the top 40 of the NPI will likely be on solid ground for earning a playoff spot.
If the Blue Streaks defeat Otterbein this week, it likely won’t get a ratings boost but the Marietta-Mount winner definitely will. In two weeks, JCU will have the opportunity to get a big boost by potentially beating a 8-1 or 9-0 Marietta team.
JCU at a glance
Record: 6-2, 6-1 OAC
Next two games: Nov. 9, Otterbein, 1:30; Nov. 16, Marietta, 2
NCAA Power Index rank: No. 46