Nov 06, 2024
Stocks rose on Thursday, hitting record highs and building on the huge market rally following the decisive victory of president-elect Donald Trump, as traders geared up for an expected rate cut from the Federal Reserve. The S&P 500 gained 0.7%. The Nasdaq Composite advanced 1.4%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average was up 0.1%. The three major averages hit intraday record highs during the session. The gains built on a surge in stocks Wednesday after Trump’s win, including a 1,500 gain for the Dow. The S&P 500 jumped 2.53% for its best post-election day in history. The bond market has also been volatile, with Treasury yields falling Thursday after spiking in the previous session. Those big swings are the backdrop for the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision and Chair Jerome Powell’s subsequent press conference Thursday afternoon. Fed funds futures are currently pricing in a 100% likelihood that the central bank lowers the borrowing cost by a quarter point at this meeting, according to CME Group’s Fed Watch tool, but the outlook for further cuts has become less clear. “I don’t think the election news or the market volatility meaningfully impacts the Fed’s trajectory in the very short-term,” Paul Eitelman, chief investment strategist for North America at Russell Investments, told CNBC. “Where the election could start to factor in — and I think those discussions in Washington, D.C., could intensify — is in to 2025, when we start to get a much a clearer picture of exactly what trade policy might look like, exactly what tax reform might look like,” he added. Wall Street generally expects that the second Trump administration will be good for risk assets like stocks, thanks in part to his proposed tax cuts. However, the prospect of continued large government deficits and higher tariffs has raised some worries about a rebound in inflation. Big Tech stocks moved higher on Thursday to bolster the market, with Apple and Nvidia gaining 2% and 1.7%, respectively. Meta Platforms rose more than 3%. Financial stocks, which surged on Wednesday, cooled a bit on Thursday. Shares of JPMorgan Chase fell nearly 4% and American Express dipped more than 2%, weighing on the Dow. ‘Trump trade’ stocks pull back Individual stocks considered part of the so-called Trump trade struggled in Thursday’s session. Along with Trump Media & Technology, Phunware also dove into the red. Shares of the stock, which is the company behind Trump’s election app, dropped more than 17% in afternoon trading. Shares of Rumble, a video platform popular among conservatives, slipped 1.5% in the session. — Alex Harring Small caps inch down Thursday The Russell 2000 inched down 0.05% on Thursday. The pullback comes a day after the benchmark small-cap index rallied 5.8% on Wednesday, its best day since Nov. 10, 2022, after Donald Trump won the U.S. presidential election. Week to date, the Russell 2000 remains 8.1% higher. Year to date, the index has gained nearly 18%. — Hakyung Kim Coinbase shares are flat Thursday following a 30% pop Coinbase Global, the crypto exchange that is believed to be a Trump beneficiary, traded flat on Thursday. The stock soared 31% in the previous session following Trump’s election victory. Bitcoin jumped to a record high above $76,000 on Wednesday on the belief that the crypto industry could benefit from looser regulations under the Republican president-elect. — Yun Li Zillow climbs 20% after third-quarter revenue tops estimates The c-class shares of real estate tech company Zillow jumped more than 20% after third-quarter results showed stronger-than-expected sales. Zillow said it generated $581 million of revenue for the quarter, above the $555.5 million expected by analysts, according to FactSet. Zillow CEO Jeremy Wacksman told “Squawk on the Street” that affordability is the main issue in the housing market currently, and that growth for real estate overall would be helped by mortgage rates coming down. — Jesse Pound Warner Bros. Discovery pops 15% after earnings report Warner Bros. Discovery was the top performer in the S&P 500 on Thursday morning, surging 15%. The moves came after the media company reported earnings of 5 cents per share for the third quarter. Analysts surveyed by LSEG were expecting a loss of 9 cents per share. Warner Bros. Discovery also said its Max streaming service added 7.2 million subscribers during the quarter. — Jesse Pound Trump Media shares give up Election Day gain Shares of Trump Media & Technology Group, President-elect Donald Trump’s media company, plunged on Thursday, giving back the rally in the previous session triggered by his election victory. The stock dropped more than 16% to below $30 per share in morning trading, following a 5.9% pop on Wednesday after the Republican was elected the 47th president of the U.S. — Yun Li Tech stocks lead in early trading Dado Ruvic | Reuters Technology stocks were a bright spot Thursday morning, as the Nasdaq Composite rose more than 1%. Chip stocks in particular were performing well, with the VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH) climbing more than 2%. Arm Holdings rose more than 6.5% and Intel gained 3.4%. Chip giant Nvidia, meanwhile, added nearly 2%. — Jesse Pound Financials slip in early trading Financial stocks gave back some of their recent gains on Thursday, with the Financial Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLF) down 0.8% in early trading. Among Dow components, JPMorgan Chase dropped more than 2%, while American Express and Goldman Sachs dipped 1.7% and 0.7%, respectively. Regional banks also declined, with the SPDR S&P Regional Banking ETF (KRE) down 2%. — Jesse Pound Stocks rise slightly at the open Stocks opened slightly higher on Thursday. The Dow, S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite all hit intraday record highs in the opening moments. — Jesse Pound The best postelection rally ever Brian Snyder | ReutersPresident-elect Donald Trump is joined onstage by his wife Melania at his election night rally at the Palm Beach County Convention Center in West Palm Beach, Florida, on Nov. 6, 2024. The election rally in the stock market is one for the history books. The S&P 500 jumped 2.5% on Wednesday to hit its 48th record high of the year, and the advance marked the best postelection gain in the benchmark’s history, according to Deutsche Bank’s Jim Reid, head of global economics and thematic research. Trump’s agenda of lower corporate tax rates, deregulation and policies that favor domestic growth are believed to boost the U.S. economy and benefit risk assets. The large-cap benchmark is up 24.3% this year. — Yun Li Stocks making the biggest moves premarket Check out some of the companies making headlines in premarket trading: Lyft — The ride-sharing stock advanced more than 23% after a stronger-than-expected fourth-quarter outlook. Lyft expects bookings in the current quarter of $4.28 billion to $4.35 billion, while analysts polled by FactSet expected $4.23 billion.Arm Holdings — Shares of the semiconductor company slipped about 7% despite second-quarter results surpassing Wall Street estimates. Arm reported adjusted earnings per share of 30 cents on revenue of $844 million, while analysts polled by LSEG forecast a profit of 26 cents per share and revenue of $808 million.Wolfspeed — Stock in the semiconductor manufacturer plummeted more than 25% after a revenue miss and a lower-than-expected outlook. Wolfspeed forecasts fiscal second-quarter revenue in the range of $160 million to $200 million, while analysts surveyed by LSEG were looking for $215 million. Read the full list here. — Brian Evans Productivity missed forecast while labor costs rose U.S. workers produced at a lower rate than expected while labor costs were above forecasts in the third quarter, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Thursday. Nonfarm labor productivity, a measure of output compared to hours worked, increased 2.2% for the July through September period, below the Dow Jones estimate for 2.5%. At the same time, unit labor costs, a measure of hourly compensation to productivity, jumped 1.9%, well above the 1.1% forecast. — Jeff Cox KeyBanc downgrades Five Below and Dollar Tree on Trump tariff risk Justin Sullivan | Getty ImagesA sign is posted in front of a Dollar Tree store on March 13, 2024 in Novato, California. KeyBanc Capital Markets thinks shares of Five Below and Dollar Tree could see pullback following President-elect Donald Trump’s White House win. The firm downgraded the stocks to sector weight from overweight, seeing Trump possibly imposing tariffs of 60% to 100% on Chinese goods as a threat to both names given their exposure. In fact, it noted that China is the “most important” country for Dollar Tree’s imports, and 60% of Five Below’s products come from China. As a result, analyst Bradley Thomas sees tariffs as posing a possible multi-year risk to their fundamentals and sentiment. That’s despite the fact that he still sees “underappreciated” turnaround opportunities for both names. “Both companies were fairly effective at mitigating tariffs in 2018-2019, but we believe the current potential is for higher tariffs and operationally both companies are not performing as well,” he wrote in a note to clients on Wednesday. “As such, we move to the sidelines as we await further evidence of improved fundamentals and greater clarity on potential tariffs and the ability to offset them.” Justin Sullivan | Getty ImagesIn an aerial view, a sign is posted in front of a Five Below store on June 07, 2024 in Vallejo, California.  Bank of America also downgraded Five Below earlier this week in the wake of Trump’s victory. The bank cited his hardline tariff strategy as a threat to shares as well. This year, shares of Five Below and Dollar Tree have struggled, falling more than 60% and around 56% year to date. — Sean Conlon Jobless claims come in at 221,000, near expectations Initial jobless claims data came in roughly in-line with estimates on Thursday morning at 221,000. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones were expecting 220K claims for the week ending Nov. 2. The four-week moving average for initial claims is now 227,250, according to the Department of Labor. Continued jobless claims came in at 1,642,554 for the week ending Oct. 19, down a little more than 9,000 from the previous reading. — Jesse Pound Lyft shares rally on strong guidance Shares of Lyft popped nearly 24% in premarket trading Thursday. The company posted a revenue beat for the third quarter and forward guidance that exceeded analysts’ expectations. The ride-hailing company is now forecasting bookings of $4.28 billion to $4.35 billion in the fourth quarter, while FactSet consensus estimates called for $4.23 billion. Bank of America reiterated its buy rating on the stock following Lyft’s better-than-expected earnings and highlighted the stock’s discounted valuation relative to Uber shares. — Hakyung Kim There’s ‘not a ton of room left’ for small caps, RBC’s Calvasina says Futures for the small cap benchmark Russell 2000 were up 0.6% in morning trading, pointing to a solidly higher opening for the group. Those gains would come on top of a more than 5% surge on Wednesday. Lori Calvasina, head of U.S. equity strategy at RBC Capital Markets, said in a note that clients were asking if small caps still had room to run after the big post-election move. “Positioning/sentiment already looks a bit stretched, with Russell 2000 futures positioning per data from CFTC already close to the 2016, 2017, and 2018 highs in last week’s update,” Calvasina said. “We suggested that the best way to gauge how much more room this trade has to run is by looking at the Russell 2000’s market cap weighted median [price-to-earnings ratio], which was 16.7x as of Tuesday’s close, but peaked at 18.9x in 2016, 19.7x in 2017, and 17.6x in 2018. There’s not a ton of room left, but likely some even after Wednesday’s big move,” she continued. RBC also pointed out that small caps had relatively short-lived outperformances after the 2016 and 2020 elections. — Jesse Pound Bank of America downgrades SolarEdge Technologies, cites greater risk to clean energy industry after Trump win Pavlo Gonchar | SOPA Images | LightRocket | Getty ImagesA SolarEdge Technologies logo is seen on a smartphone and a PC. SolarEdge Technologies could face some downside after President-elect Donald Trump’s defeat of Vice President Kamala Harris, according to Bank of America. The bank downgraded the stock to underperform from neutral and slashed its price target. Its updated target now reflects more than 4% downside from Wednesday’s close. Shares have already fallen more than 84% this year. Analyst Dimple Gosai said that the former president’s plans to amend the Inflation Reduction Act and raise tariffs could increase risk to the clean energy industry, even though his policies would take time to actualize. “We think inverter companies (ENPH and SEDG, U/P rated) could be adversely affected in a scenario where we see risk to the domestic content bonuses and reduced residential ITC credits, diminishing the appeal of rooftop solar,” the analyst wrote. “Solar trackers could also face significant challenges on potentially softer demand from U.S. utility-scale solar developers, especially if tariffs and the loss of domestic content adders inflate project costs,” he continued. — Sean Conlon Moderna shares pop on earnings beat Rafael Henrique | Lightrocket | Getty Images Moderna shares were up 10% in the premarket after the vaccine maker reported a surprise profit for the third quarter along with a revenue beat. The company earned an adjusted 3 cents per share on revenue of $1.86 billion. Analysts polled by LSEG expected a loss of $1.90 per share on revenue of $1.25 billion. The results were driven by higher-than-expected Covid vaccine sales. — Fred Imbert China’s CSI 300 leads gains in Asia markets after stronger-than-expected exports data Asia-Pacific markets mostly rose in choppy trading on Thursday after former President Donald Trump won the White House, defeating Vice President Kamala Harris in the 2024 presidential election. Mainland China’s CSI 300 reversed losses, leading gains in Asia with a 3.02% rise and closing at 4,145.7. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index initially fell, but also reversed course to climb 2% as of its final hour of trade. China reported October exports data that sharply beat market expectations. Japan’s Nikkei 225 was the only major index in negative territory, losing 0.43% to close at 39,381.41, but the broad-based Topix rose 1% to 2,743.08. South Korea’s Kospi rose marginally to 2,564.63, but the small-cap Kosdaq lost 1.32% to end at 733.52. — Lim Hui Jie Expectations fall towards a January rate cut Andrew Kelly | ReutersTraders work on the floor at the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE), after Republican Donald Trump won the U.S. presidential election, in New York City, U.S., November 6, 2024.  With Treasury yields rising on the back of a Trump election victory, expectations have fallen as to how aggressive the Federal Reserve will be in cutting interest rates this winter. The fed funds rate, which determines what banks charge each other for overnight lending, currently ranges between a targeted 4.75% to 5.0%. At this point, it’s pretty much a foregone conclusion that the U.S. central bank will decide on a quarter-percentage point cut, which equals 25 basis points, at Thursday’s meeting. Market pricing currently points toward a 71% chance of another quarter-point cut in December, according to the CME FedWatch tool. This probability compares to 77% on Wednesday, and 72% a week ago. Future rate probabilities found in the CME FedWatch tool are derived from trading in 30-day fed funds futures contracts. On the other hand, expectations for a January rate cut have shifted as a result of Wednesday’s election. The CME FedWatch tool points to market pricing currently favoring an interest rate pause in January. Indeed, the probability of an additional quarter-point cut in January following a November and December cut has fallen to 29% from 41% on Wednesday and 45% a week ago. Meanwhile, the odds that the Federal Reserve keeps rates the same in January has climbed to 54%, up from 48% on Wednesday and 44% this time last week. — Lisa Kailai Han See the stocks moving after hours These are some of the stocks making big movers in extended trading: Lyft — The ride-hailing company popped nearly 20%. Third-quarter revenue came in at $1.52 billion, topping consensus estimates for $1.44 billion, per LSEG. Guidance for the fourth quarter topped the Street’s expectations, with Lyft forecasting bookings of $4.28 billion to $4.35 billion, despite FactSet consensus estimates calling for just $4.23 billion.SolarEdge Technologies — The maker of residential solar power inverters dove 18% after third-quarter revenue missed the Street’s expectations.E.l.f Beauty — The cosmetics retail stock jumped 11% after a stronger-than-expected quarterly report and a guidance hike. See the full list here. — Alex Harring Stock futures are little changed Stock futures are neat flat shortly after 6 p.m. ET. Futures tied to the Dow, S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 all traded marginally above flat. It comes after the preceding session brought a huge post-election rally for stocks. — Alex Harring
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