Lawrence University professor breaks down election results
Nov 07, 2024
APPLETON, Wis. (WFRV) - It was an election that we will be talking about for a long time.
Local 5 News consulted an expert to get some insight into how it all played out. First, the big news of the night: Donald Trump's return to the White House.
"The polls will often indicate that Trump is doing worse than he actually is," said Jerald Podair who is a history professor at Lawrence University. "Voters that are polled do not seem to be comfortable telling pollsters that they're voting for Trump."
There were signs early in the night that Vice President Kamala Harris could be in trouble. Trump won the White House with 295 electoral college votes (as of Thursday morning, there are still states that haven't finished counting).
He won the Badger state by about 29,000 votes, reversing his fortunes from 2020 when he narrowly lost Wisconsin to Joe Biden.
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According to Podair, voters ultimately trusted Trump more than Harris to get the economy going in the right direction and this issue carried the former president to victory.
"It's not that I could promise you that my economy would be better, my economy was better," Podair said. "That's the argument that he could make. That's the issue that in my view made Trump president again, the economy. He could say between 2017 when he was inaugurated and the beginning of the pandemic, I had inflation under control, I had unemployment under control, the stock market was rising."
Podair said another key for Trump was the emphasis this time around on early voting. In 2020, the former president oftentimes demonized this form of voting, saying that it led to election fraud and encouraging his voters to just vote on election day. Podair said this ultimately led to his downfall back in 2020.
Podair also said Harris may have made a critical mistake picking Tim Walz instead of Josh Shapiro (governor of Pennsylvania) as her running mate for Vice President. Pennsylvania was a critical state that she almost absolutely needed to pick up to have a path to the White House.
The Associated Press called Pennsylvania for Trump around 2 a.m. on Wednesday morning.
"We are now in the age of the Republican party as the populist party the party of working men and women," Podair said saying that Democrats have do some soul searching and seriously revise their message to voters for future election cycles.
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While many Wisconsin voters filled in the oval next to Donald Trump's name, they also picked Democrat Tammy Baldwin in the U.S. Senate race.
Wisconsinites splitting their tickets in a major November election for the second time in a row. Back in 2022, the Badger state sent Democrat Tony Evers to the governor's mansion and Republican Ron Johnson back to the U.S. Senate.
"This state is so evenly divided that even a shift of a few votes one way or another will really make the difference," Podair said.
Baldwin declared victory around 4:30 on Wednesday morning in a tight U.S. Senate race. The Associated Press called the race later that day.
Baldwin trailed her opponent Eric Hovde for most of the night and her campaign officials sent her supporters home from their election night watch party in Madison just after midnight. The atmosphere that night at the watch party got increasingly gloomy as the night progressed as things looked like they were breaking Hovde's way.
Ultimately though, it was Baldwin who prevailed.
"Milwaukee is Milwaukee, it always comes in late, it often comes in last, it comes in heavy and it comes in Democratic," said Podair who said he felt like Baldwin was still going to win even when she fell behind.
In Wisconsin's 8th Congressional District, it was a much less stressful night for eventual winner Tony Wied. The Trump-endorsed, former gas station chain owner cruised to victory by nearly 15 percentage points over Democratic challenger Dr. Kristin Lyerly.
"This is a Republican-leaning district, and all things being equal a Republican versus a Democrat the Republican is going to win," said Podair saying a major mistake would have been the only way that Wied would have lost this race.