In a tight race for California’s 49th Congressional District, incumbent Democratic Rep. Mike Levin held a roughly 5,000 vote lead over Republican challenger Matt Gunderson as of Wednesday. The margin in the perennially purple district narrowed overnight to about 2 points after a bruising campaign that attracted national attention. Levin first flipped the seat from longtime Republican control in 2018, amid a suburban blue wave across the U.S. The district has been a GOP target since – with the National Republican Congressional Committee in 2023 naming it as one of just a few dozen nationwide they were focused on as a potential pick-up opportunity. About two-thirds of the district is in northern San Diego County, including the communities of Oceanside and Vista, among others, with the remaining third in Orange County. The district is nearly evenly split into thirds when it comes to registration, with a slight Democratic advantage. As of Wednesday, San Diego County had an estimated 590,000 ballots yet to be processed, while Orange County had about 364,000 remaining countywide – ballots dropped off on Election Day and later-returning mail-in ballots postmarked by Nov. 5. Neither county breaks down those figures by district, but given the margins within each, the figures appeared to lean in Levin’s favor. “We’re very, very pleased with the result this evening,” Levin said Tuesday night after declaring victory to his supporters. “The third wave of votes is the late votes and we’ve done very well with those. So when you add it up, things are looking very good.” His team said they anticipated the margin to shrink from the first batch of results. “Results right now are consistent with what we expected,” a campaign spokesman said Wednesday. “We expected the race to tighten overnight and we expect to win the late absentees and provisionals.” “We are encouraged by the initial election results and will be watching as they continue coming in this week,” Gunderson said in a statement Wednesday. “Mike Levin was supposed to be a shoo-in for re-election, but instead required Nancy Pelosi’s assistance with millions of dollars in advertising to try and save him. Despite the Democrats’ millions in negative advertising, our message of fiscal responsibility, secure borders, and common sense has resonated with the voters of San Diego and Orange Counties.” A source close to Gunderson’s campaign said they were optimistic, watching the results come in, and preparing for the possibility that the race would not have an official result for up to a few weeks. The race served as a sort of bellwether for the national political conversation. Key to Levin’s message was abortion rights as both candidates looked to appeal to suburban women. “Pro-choice means that you want a woman to choose when it comes to her own reproductive rights. Not that you want states to choose,” Levin said Tuesday night. “It’s very, very sad to see where almost half the states in this country now have some form of a ban on reproductive freedom.” Gunderson said he too was pro-choice, hoping to put that aside to focus on other issues like the economy and immigration. “They attempted to shift the focus away from the economy. But, you know, people out here are suffering,” said Gunderson volunteer Loren Lasche. “At the end of the day, what do we care about? For the most part, it’s our living and how do we take care of our families?” Both sides agreed – regardless of the final result – the 49th District will remain competitive for cycles to come. “So long as this is such a close registration where Democrats only have a couple points registration advantage, I do expect us to be on the national radar,” Levin said Tuesday, just hours before polls closed. “This district is, you know, it’s not really solid red. It’s not really solid blue,” Lasche said. “It’s described as purple. And that’s because there’s a lot of conservatives, a lot of independents and a lot of Democrats.”