NEW ORLEANS (WGNO) — Rafael is now a category two storm as it moves away from the island of Cuba and turns into the southeastern Gulf. The storm will continue to move west over the next couple of days around a strong ridge to the north. It will likely maintain its intensity at least for another day or two. Between two to three days from now, models really begin to split on the possible future track of Rafael. A large number of them continue to take the storm west and then eventually even southwest through the Gulf. Some forecast models, like the GFS, show a weakened ridge of high pressure that would allow a northward turn as a trough moves in from the west. That would normally be the more likely scenario this time of year, but it is still not a guarantee. The track will depend on the timing and placement of that trough. This means two possible outcomes for our weekend. If the storm stays on the further south track we will be warm and mostly dry. If it moves north we will likely see rain and some breezy conditions Saturday and Sunday. Either way the storm will be much weaker by that point and major tropical issues are not likely. However coastal flooding would continue to be an issue. Continue to stay with WGNO on air and online for the latest. Stay up to date with the latest news, weather and sports by downloading the WGNO app on the Apple or Google Play stores and by subscribing to the WGNO newsletter. Latest Posts Arizona projected for Trump by DDHQ, giving him all 7 swing states Tax experts share thoughts on how special session can affect small Louisiana businesses and citizens Saints interim coach Darren Rizzi emphasizing change as he tries to prove he's made for the job Mitchell scores 29 and the Cavaliers beat the Pelicans 131-122 for their first 9-0 start What is the 4B movement? Interest spikes after Trump win