As of 10am Wednesday, Hurricane Rafael is intensifying quickly as it moves toward Cuba. The storm is located southeast of the Isle of Youth and about 130 miles south-southeast of Havana Cuba. It has sustained winds of 110 mph and is now forecast to strengthen into a major hurricane before landfall over Cuba later tonight. It will cross into the southern Gulf of Mexico later tonight, before turning gradually to the west-northwest guided by a ridge of high pressure that will be building in the Gulf of Mexico. This will steer the storm away from much of the U.S. Gulf coast. It will weaken as it tracks further west, approaching the Western Gulf coast of Texas or Mexico early next week. Impacts and Hazards: Storm Surge: 9-14 feet is possible along the southern coast of Cuba Rainfall: 4-8 inches with up to a foot of rain possible for Cuba leading to flash flooding and landslides Wind: Hurricane force winds extend up to 15-miles from center with tropical storm force winds reaching 115 miles from center. The Lower and Middle Florida Keys may begin to experience tropical storm force winds today and tonight This is the 11th hurricane of the 2024 Atlantic Basin Hurricane Season and is on track to become the 5th major hurricane of the season. PREVIOUS UPDATE 10PM 11/5 Rafael has been upgraded to a hurricane with maximum sustained winds near 75 mph.Rafael will make landfall in western Cuba before continuing into the Gulf of Mexico. Thanks to high wind shear, dry air and cooler waters, Rafael will weaken in the Gulf of Mexico before heading to the northern Gulf coast. It is also possible this system just meanders in the Gulf without making landfall. PREVIOUS UPDATE: 11/5 10 AM Tropical Storm Rafael is located about 65 miles southwest of Montego Bay, Jamaica. It is moving northwest at 13 mph and is forecast to strengthen into a hurricane by Tuesday night as it passes near the Cayman Islands. It will cross over western Cuba Wednesday before moving into the Gulf of Mexico. Once the storm moves northward into the Gulf of Mexico, high shear, dry air and cooler ocean waters will lead to the storm gradually weakening. On the forecast path, it will move into the Northern Gulf of Mexico later this week, before moving westward toward Lousiana and Texas this weekend. The Carolinas won’t see any direct impacts form this storm, but an approaching cold front may interact with Rafael in the Gulf, funneling moisture into the southeast. Hurricane Warnings are in effect for the Cayman Islands and Western Cuba. Tropical Storm Warnings have been issued for Jamaica, the Florida Keys and Dry Tortugas. Hazards and Impacts: Rainfall: 3-6 inches, with isolated areas up to 10 inches across Jamaica, the Cayman Islands and western Cuba leading to flash flooding and mudslides Storm Surge: 1-3 feet in the Cayman Islands and the Florida Keys and up to 6-9 feet for Cuba Tornadoes: A few tornadoes will be possible for the Florida Keys and Southwest Florida beginning Wednesday Surf: Dangerous swells could generate life threatening surf and rip currents in the Western Caribbean. PREVIOUS UPDATE 11/4 10PM Tropical Storm Rafael has winds of 45 mph and is about 120 miles south/southwest of Kingston, Jamaica. Rafael is expected to strengthen to a hurricane on Tuesday.There are Hurricane Warnings in effect for the Cayman Islands along with the Cuban provinces of Pinar del Rio, Artemisa, La Habana, Mayabeque, Matanzas, and the Isle of Youth.The forecast over the next 48-hours is straight-forward. Once this system gets into the Gulf of Mexico, there is more uncertainty due to the synoptic pattern over the United States.It is too soon to know what, if any, impacts Rafael could bring to the northern Gulf Coast, but the Deep South states should watch this. IF steering currents push this system to the northern Gulf Coast, it is possible the Carolinas will see rain from Rafael this weekend. PREVIOUS UPDATE Monday 10 AM — Tropical Depression 18 has formed in the south central Caribbean Sea and is expected to strengthen into Tropical Storm Rafael later today. It is currently located about 195 miles south of Kingston, Jamaica and 400 miles southeast of the Grand Cayman. The tropical depression has sustained winds of 35 mph with a minimum central pressure of 1003 mb. It is moving north at 9 mph, and is forecast to shift northwest later today, impacting Jamaica tonight. It will near the Cayman Islands Tuesday and approach western Cuba as a hurricane Wednesday before moving into the Gulf of Mexico. The storm is expected to intensify and is forecast to become a hurricane by Wednesday. It will face increased wind shear and drier air in the Central Gulf of Mexico late week. This could lead to potential weakening. Although the storm will not have any direct impacts for the Carolinas, an approaching cold front late week, could help funnel moisture from the Gulf northward into the Carolinas leading to greater rain chances late week into the weekend. Watches and Warnings Hurricane Warning: Cayman Islands Hurricane Watch: Western Cuba Tropical Storm Warning: Jamaica Tropical Storm Watch: Central and Eastern Cuba Impacts Rainfall: 3-6 inches with localized totals up to 9 inches may lead to flooding and mudslides for Jamaica and Cuba Storm Surge: 2-4 feet possible along Cuba’s southern coast Wind: Hurricane force winds in the Cayman Islands by Tuesday and in Cuba by Wednesday Surf: Dangerous swells and rip current risks for much of the western Caribbean