NEW ORLEANS (WGNO) — Rafael is now a category one storm with winds of 80 mph Tuesday evening. This storm will continue to strengthen through the day Wednesday before making landfall in Cuba. Between two to three days from now, forecast models suggest Rafael may take a more westward turn as high pressure builds further west along the northern Gulf Coast. After this period, the storm's path becomes less certain, with models split on where it may go and how strong it may be. The latest forecast Tuesday evening from the NHC carries the storm further west into the Gulf before making a northward turn to Louisiana. It also weakens the storm quite a bit after the northward turn but does keep it a hurricane into the central Gulf before that. Some forecast models, like the GFS, show a weakened ridge of high pressure that would allow a northward turn, while others, including the European model (ECMWF), indicate a stronger high pressure system favoring a westward track. Until there’s a more definitive trend in the models, the forecast cone shows a slow northward turn over the northern Gulf of Mexico. With an inner wind core now in place, Rafael is likely to strengthen quickly over the next 24 hours. It is expected to reach hurricane strength within the next few hours as it moves through the Cayman Islands and may intensify further before reaching Cuba. Once the storm moves north of the middle of the Gulf of Mexico, Rafael is expected to encounter strong wind shear, drier air, and cooler sea temperatures, likely causing the storm to weaken and gradually dissipate. The National Hurricane Center says it remains too early to determine any potential impacts Rafael may bring to the northern Gulf Coast. Stay up to date with the latest news, weather and sports by downloading the WGNO app on the Apple or Google Play stores and by subscribing to the WGNO newsletter. Latest Posts Harris won't address supporters at campaign victory party Arizona enshrines abortion rights in state constitution: Decision Desk projection on The Hill Decision Desk projection on The Hill: Harris wins New Mexico Decision Desk projection on NewsNation: Republicans gain control of US Senate Decision Desk projection on The Hill: Harris wins New Jersey