Will the election swing the economy?
Nov 05, 2024
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Business & Economy
Business & Economy
The Big Story
The economy could be the election’s make-or-break issue
The results of the high-stakes faceoff between Vice President Harris and former President Trump could come down to which has convinced the American people that they are the best choice to handle the economy.
© The Associated Press
Trump, who has held an edge on the economy in most polls, has been going full bore on the issue, proposing a bevy of individual tax breaks and general tariffs that could rattle the world of international trade.
Harris has made up significant ground on the issue since taking over the top of the Democratic presidential ticket in July, narrowing a gulf between Trump and President Biden.
The vice president even drew to a virtual tie on who would be best at handling the economy in a Marist poll of Pennsylvania, a swing state potentially pivotal to either candidate’s path to victory.
Biden’s economic approval ratings sagged during the course of his term under the malaise of inflation despite frequent upside surprises in national economic metrics.
Harris almost instantly gained ground on the issue when she took over the ticket from Biden, closing the gap with Trump relative to Biden by 6 percentage points in Marist polling and by 10 points in Fox News polling in September.
While economic rescue measures sent out in response to the pandemic also prevented a serious downturn and are likely in the process of delivering the Federal Reserve’s long-sought “soft landing,” inflation has rained on the parade of the economy’s recovery, depriving Democrats of a chance to boast.
“This is truly a chance that many economists said the U.S. economy would not have within four years, and yet here it is in front of us. That’s remarkable — but you can’t erase the economic pain that people went through or tell them, ‘Actually, you could have had it a lot worse,’” labor economist Kathryn Anne Edwards told The Hill.
The Hill’s Tobias Burns has more here.
Welcome to The Hill’s Business & Economy newsletter, we’re Aris Folley and Taylor Giorno — covering the intersection of Wall Street and Pennsylvania Avenue.
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Essential Reads
Key business and economic news with implications this week and beyond:
Number of renter households grows ‘three times faster’ than homeowner households: Report
The share of renter households in the U.S. is growing at triple the rate of homeowner households as home costs outpace rent increases, a new report from real estate company Redfin has found.
Full Story
NYT says public may not see political needle on election night
The New York Times’s signature election needle may not be available to the public as results come in Tuesday night amid an ongoing strike by the outlet’s technology staff, the paper’s election analytics team confirmed Tuesday.
Full Story
Trump mourns Home Depot founder, GOP donor Bernie Marcus: ‘An extraordinary man’
Former President Trump on Tuesday mourned “legendary entrepreneur and political genius” Bernie Marcus, the Home Depot founder and prominent Republican mega-donor who died Monday at the age of 95.
Full Story
Trump and Harris break bipartisan tradition by withholding top donors
Neither Vice President Harris nor former President Trump have voluntarily disclosed their top campaign fundraisers as of Election Day, upending a bipartisan tradition that dates back to 2000.
Full Story
The Ticker
Upcoming news themes and events we're watching:
Alaska will be the last state to close its polls at 1 a.m. ET.
The Federal Reserve is expected to announce a second round of interest rate cuts on Thursday at 2 p.m.
In Other News
Branch out with more stories from the day:
Stock market today: Wall Street rallies on Election Day as economy remains solid
NEW YORK (AP) — U.S. stocks rallied Tuesday as voters headed to the polls on the last day of the presidential …
Full Story
Good to Know
Business and economic news we've flagged from other outlets:
Musk to Spend Election Night With Trump (The New York Times)
Dow rises 300 points as Wall Street awaits election results (CNBC)
It’s still the economy: What TV ads tell us about each campaign’s closing message (Politico)
What Others are Reading
Top stories on The Hill right now:
Election Day 2024 live updates: Nation braces for results of Harris-Trump battle
Vice President Harris and former President Trump face the moment of truth on Election Day as voters around the country head to the polls. Read more
Trump rips Fox News’s election morning coverage
Former President Trump railed against Fox News on Tuesday morning for playing clips of a speech Oprah Winfrey gave in support of Vice President Harris. Read more
You're all caught up. See you tomorrow!