Tropical Storm Rafael has winds of 45 mph and is about 120 miles south/southwest of Kingston, Jamaica. Rafael is expected to strengthen to a hurricane on Tuesday.There are Hurricane Warnings in effect for the Cayman Islands along with the Cuban provinces of Pinar del Rio, Artemisa, La Habana, Mayabeque, Matanzas, and the Isle of Youth.The forecast over the next 48-hours is straight-forward. Once this system gets into the Gulf of Mexico, there is more uncertainty due to the synoptic pattern over the United States.It is too soon to know what, if any, impacts Rafael could bring to the northern Gulf Coast, but the Deep South states should watch this. IF steering currents push this system to the northern Gulf Coast, it is possible the Carolinas will see rain from Rafael this weekend. PREVIOUS UPDATE Monday 10 AM — Tropical Depression 18 has formed in the south central Caribbean Sea and is expected to strengthen into Tropical Storm Rafael later today. It is currently located about 195 miles south of Kingston, Jamaica and 400 miles southeast of the Grand Cayman. The tropical depression has sustained winds of 35 mph with a minimum central pressure of 1003 mb. It is moving north at 9 mph, and is forecast to shift northwest later today, impacting Jamaica tonight. It will near the Cayman Islands Tuesday and approach western Cuba as a hurricane Wednesday before moving into the Gulf of Mexico. The storm is expected to intensify and is forecast to become a hurricane by Wednesday. It will face increased wind shear and drier air in the Central Gulf of Mexico late week. This could lead to potential weakening. Although the storm will not have any direct impacts for the Carolinas, an approaching cold front late week, could help funnel moisture from the Gulf northward into the Carolinas leading to greater rain chances late week into the weekend. Watches and Warnings Hurricane Warning: Cayman Islands Hurricane Watch: Western Cuba Tropical Storm Warning: Jamaica Tropical Storm Watch: Central and Eastern Cuba Impacts Rainfall: 3-6 inches with localized totals up to 9 inches may lead to flooding and mudslides for Jamaica and Cuba Storm Surge: 2-4 feet possible along Cuba’s southern coast Wind: Hurricane force winds in the Cayman Islands by Tuesday and in Cuba by Wednesday Surf: Dangerous swells and rip current risks for much of the western Caribbean