NEW ORLEANS (WGNO) — Tropical Storm Rafael has formed in the Caribbean Sea, becoming the seventeenth named storm of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season. The storm is quickly strengthening and already showing signs of an eyewall structure with intensified thunderstorm activity near its center. Recent reports from the U.S. Air Force Hurricane Hunters indicate sustained winds have reached around 45 miles per hour and satellite imagery shows improving organization with the storm’s structure. Rafael has slightly shifted to the northeast of its previous track and is currently moving north at about 9 mph. A turn to the northwest is forecast for later tonight, with the projected path bringing the storm close to Jamaica tonight and across western Cuba on Wednesday. Once the system reaches the Gulf of Mexico, forecast models are split on the potential path of the system due to differing steering patterns, leading to lower confidence in its track. The storm’s structure is improving as low wind shear, high moisture, and warm sea surface temperatures favor continued intensification. Forecast models suggest steady to rapid strengthening, with a nearly 40% chance of a 35 mph increase in wind speed within the next 24 hours. However, as it nears the central Gulf later this week, increased wind shear, drier air, and slightly cooler waters are likely to weaken it. It’s rare for hurricanes to make landfall in the United States in November. In fact, it’s only happened four times on record — in 1861, 1935, 1985, and 2022. Of those four hurricane, only one, Hurricane Kate in 1985, made landfall on the Gulf Coast. While it’s too early to determine Rafael’s exact impact on the northern Gulf Coast, residents are advised by the NHC to closely monitor forecast updates. The storm will also bring heavy rainfall to portions of Florida and parts of the southeastern U.S. by mid-to-late week. Stay up to date with the latest news, weather and sports by downloading the WGNO app on the Apple or Google Play stores and by subscribing to the WGNO newsletter. Latest Posts Slidell man found guilty of molesting a young girl 3 killed in Helicopter crash near Iowa, La. Ohio sheriff's lieutenant who said he 'will not help' Democratic Party supporters apologizes LSU football plans to fix the running game ahead of rival Alabama game Pennsylvania judge refuses to block Musk's $1M giveaways