Final WNCN swing state polling shows Harris, Trump deadlocked in NC
Nov 04, 2024
RALEIGH, N.C. (WNCN) — The race for the next President of the United States remains too close to call, according to polling released the day before Election Day by Emerson College Polling, The Hill and CBS 17.
Even in swing states where one candidate holds an edge over the other, like North Carolina, the race remains within the survey's margin of error in every swing state.
North Carolina gives Trump 1-point advantage
Former president Donald Trump speaks to a crowd at Dorton Arena in Raleigh on Nov. 4, 2024. (CBS 17 file)
In North Carolina, there was virtually no movement from October polling to November, with former president Donald Trump holding the 1-point advantage over Vice President Kamala Harris, 49% to 48% in both months.
In August, the numbers were the same for each candidate, with a brief advantage for Harris 49% to 48% in September.
How are other swing states shaping up?
Harris and Trump are in a tight set of matchups in the battleground states.
Trump holds an edge in Arizona, Georgia, North Carolina and Pennsylvania, while Harris has the edge in Michigan. Both are tied in Nevada and Wisconsin.
Here's a breakdown of the November data from Emerson College:
Swing state% for Trump% for HarrisMargin of errorArizona5048+/- 3.2%Michigan4850+/- 3.4%North Carolina4948+/- 3.3%Nevada4848+/- 3.3%Pennsylvania4948+/- 3.0%Wisconsin4949+/- 3.4%Georgia5049+/- 3.2%
Vice President Kamala Harris speaks to a Raleigh crowd at Coastal Credit Union Music Park at Walnut Creek on Oct. 30, 2024. (CBS 17 file)
Gender gap voting trends
"As seen in national and previous polls, gender continues to provide a sharp contrast in votingintention," said Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling. "In stateswhere Harris has an edge, like Michigan and Wisconsin, voters break-in near opposite directions,whereas states where Trump has an edge, like North Carolina and Pennsylvania, men break forTrump by a larger margin than women break for Harris."
Here in North Carolina, polling shows men break for Trump by nine — 53% to 44% while women break for Harris by five — 52% to 47%.
Double-digital lead remains in NC Governor's race
Since the last poll of the gubernatorial race, Stein and Robinson’s support bothincreased one point — 52% support Democrat Josh Stein while 40% support RepublicanMark Robinson. Four percent said they plan to support someone else, and four percent remain undecided.
This comes after Stein's lead doubled from eight to 16 points between September and October.