BATON ROUGE La. (BRPROUD) — Over the weekend, an area of low pressure formed in the southwest Caribbean Sea and developed into a tropical depression and now a tropical storm. As of 4 p.m. EST, the center of Tropical Storm Rafael was located near latitude 15.5 north, longitude 76.7 west. Rafael is moving toward the north near 9 mph. A northwestward motion is expected to begin later tonight and forecast to continue for the next few days. On the forecast track, the system is expected to move near Jamaica late tonight, be near or over the Cayman Islands late Tuesday and approach Cuba on Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 45 mph with higher gusts. Steady to rapid strengthening is now forecast and the system is forecast to become a hurricane on Tuesday. Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 105 miles from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure based on data from the Air Force Hurricane Hunters is 997 mb (29.44 inches). Rafael may have an impact in Louisiana, but there is uncertainty about the exact movement and strength of the system. The GFS model continues to forecast that in the future Rafael will move northward and make landfall early Saturday along the northern Gulf Coast. The ECMWF model however predicts a more westward movement with landfall in south Texas or northern Mexico. We will watch this very closely, as the models diverge in their solutions after about 96 hours from now. We are more confident that Rafael will not be a major hurricane at landfall due to increasing wind shear and lower surface water temperatures in the Gulf of Mexico. Therefore, it is important to stay tuned for the latest updates and forecasts.  Tropical Depression Eighteen forms in the Caribbean Latest News Man dies after being buried under hot asphalt in Mississippi Taste of the Town: Check out Sweet Rice for authentic Thai food in Central Election 2024: Who’s running for office in West Baton Rouge Parish? Know what's on the ballot Pennsylvania judge refuses to block Musk's $1M giveaways Tropical Storm Rafael could impact Louisiana late this week