Joe's Blog: More rain today and later this week (MON11/4)
Nov 04, 2024
Drought breaking rains are still coming for the region over the coming days, including today as our system(s) output continues to create needed rains for the region. Many areas have had 1-2 1/2" worth, perhaps more a bit farther south of KC since everything started and today's rain will add to that as it moves up from the southwest.
This though presents a problem for tailgating and Monday Night Football and I would expect not so great conditions for at least the beginning of the game with a possible drying trend later in the game. There may be at least some lightning nearby as well early on but another 1/3" to 1"+ of rain is possible, with even higher totals south and east of I-35. It's been an impressively wet system and there is another one later in the week, that while not as generous, should still give us rain.
Notice no mention of snow around...not unusual for this time of the year but it is snowing in the Rockies and Denver is going to have accumulating snows this week.
Actually for us, temperatures will remain mostly above average for the 1st half of the month it appears.
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Forecast:
Today: Increasing areas of rain with some thunderstorms. Highs in the mid 60s or so.
Tonight: Rain winds down locally but continues up towards the NW M and NE KS areas...remaining pretty mild with lows in the mid 50s
Tomorrow: Turning cooler with lots of clouds and falling temperatures through the day. Dropping into the mid to upper 40s for a bit before settling near 50°. There might be a light shower with that change. Blustery in the morning.
Wednesday: Nicer with highs near 60°
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Discussion:
This is another day where radar tells the story...
Our main storm has carved out a pretty significant dip in the jet stream, all the way down into the 4 Corners region, and that dip is coming out today and tomorrow.
It's an energetic storm that has been propelling disturbances our way all weekend long, hence the periods of rain that we've been dealing with. Last week I mentioned just how much moisture there was in the atmosphere and these waves were very efficient rain producers with almost tropical like downpours that quickly added up.
Rain tallies via CoCoRaHS show good amounts in most of the drought regions.
So that rain has been beneficial for sure.
This mornings weather map shows a front to the west of the region, with us still in a warm and moist air mass.
The thickest and juiciest air has been shunted down towards the eastern TX up through central AR and into E MO but with plenty of juice in the air still around our area, again it won't take much to get things going again as the main dip in the 4 Corners region still is kicking out disturbances ahead of it.
This multiple waves generate areas of lift. That creates more areas of rain and that rain is moving from the SW to the NE...so what develops down there slides up the I-35 Corridor region towards us.
The final wave comes through this evening and then the main upper level wave goes through northcentral KS and into eastern NE tomorrow morning as it moves towards the northeast. This will take way the moisture tomorrow afternoon and we may get some sunshine by the end of the day.
Additional rains will be heaviest to the south of here and also towards NW MO.
By the way, between this storm and the next one diving in the combination (mostly #2) is turning into a nice snow producer(s) out in the Rockies in CO and into N NM. Here is the snow forecast through Thursday morning
There also is a better chance of additional severe weather towards the southern part of the country from this.
Including tornadoes.
We're not done though. The reason why the storm is kicking out towards the NW of the region is ANOTHER storm is dropping into the southwest US tomorrow and Wednesday. That may sit down there for a couple of days generating rain and snow out west, before kicking out towards the weekend bringing at least more rain towards us perhaps later Friday but more than likely on Saturday. It won't have the persistent moisture in the atmosphere to work that we've had lately with BUT it will have a nice surge with it so that means more rain for awhile before we rapidly dry slot sometime Saturday.
Denver averages about 7.5" of snow in November and they can have some BIG early and later season snows there. Here are their averages via my colleagues out at KDVR-TV.
January: 6.5 inchesFebruary: 7.7 inchesMarch: 11.3 inchesApril: 8.8 inchesMay: 1.7 inchesJune: TraceJuly: 0 inchesAugust: 0 inchesSeptember: 1 inchOctober: 4.1 inchesNovember: 7.4 inchesDecember: 8 inches
Denver typically sees 56.5 inches of snow each winter.
So more rain is coming locally later in the week.
Overall though for the 1st half of November, mostly not too bad at all from a temperature standpoint, although tomorrow will be colder, after some sort of early morning high.
OK that's it for today, the feature photo comes from Ottawa and Sandy Burson
Joe