Gas prices continue to fall, but for how long?
Nov 04, 2024
(GasBuddy) For the third straight week, the national average price of gasoline returned to a decline over the last week, falling 2.2 cents compared to a week ago, and stands at $3.05 per gallon Monday, according to GasBuddy® data compiled from more than 12 million individual price reports covering over 150,000 gas stations across the country. The national average is down 11.8 cents from a month ago and is 34.5 cents per gallon lower than a year ago. The national average price of diesel has declined 1.3 cents in the last week and stands at $3.52 per gallon — the lowest level since October 16, 2021.
“Seasonal trends continue to push down gasoline prices across much of the country, with GasBuddy counting 26 states where average gas prices have fallen below $3 per gallon—something that could be less than a week away for the national average,” said Patrick De Haan, head of petroleum analysis at GasBuddy. “While much of the attention this week will be on the election and how it could potentially change the trajectory of the nation, gasoline prices are likely to be a gift to the next president, staying much lower than in previous years when COVID and Russia’s war on Ukraine caused a surge that’s unlikely to repeat, no matter who wins the election. For now, Americans can expect the downward trend to continue in most states, while other states have seen prices jump temporarily due to a behavior we track called price cycling. We should see the number of states with sub-$3-per-gallon prices grow as we get closer to Thanksgiving.”
OIL PRICES
After several weeks of volatility, as markets digested disappointing economic data from China and Iran’s attack on Israel, oil prices have seen some level of stability, holding around $70 per barrel. Over the weekend, OPEC announced it was delaying its restoration of oil production to January, pushing the easing of 2023’s production cuts another month down the road, hardly a surprise, and not much of a market mover. With hurricane season still active and T.C. 18 potentially threatening the Gulf of Mexico, there is still some risk, but current projections show a relatively low category 1 storm on potential landfall near New Orleans. However, the storm is moving very slowly, and projections could shift, but for now, oil markets are somewhat quiet. In early Monday trade, WTI crude oil was up $2.03 to $71.52 per barrel, up from $68.64 last Monday. Brent crude oil was also on the charge, climbing $1.94 to $75.04 per barrel, up from $72.87 last Monday.
OIL AND REFINED PRODUCTS
Last week’s report from the EIA showed a 500,000 barrel decline in U.S. crude oil inventories, which stand about 4% below the five-year average for this time of year. The SPR added 1.2 million barrels and stands at 385.8 million barrels, nearly 10% higher than a year ago. Gasoline inventories fell by 2.7 million barrels, about 3% below the five-year average, while distillates fell 1.0 million barrels to 9% below the five-year average. Refinery utilization slipped 0.4 percentage points to 89.1%, while implied gasoline demand rose 321,000bpd to 9.16 million barrels.
FUEL DEMAND
According to GasBuddy demand data driven by its Pay with GasBuddy™ fuel card, U.S. retail gasoline demand saw a fall of 0.3% for the week ending November 2 (Sun-Sat). Broken down by PADD region, demand rose 2.2% in PADD 1, fell 2.8% in PADD 2, fell 1.2% in PADD 3, rose 0.3% in PADD 4, and rose 0.4% in PADD 5. GasBuddy models U.S. gasoline demand at 8.4 million barrels per day.
GAS PRICE TRENDS
The most common U.S. gas price encountered by motorists stood at $2.99 per gallon, unchanged from last week, followed by $2.89, $3.09, $2.79, and $3.19 rounding out the top five most common prices.
The median U.S. gas price is $2.96 per gallon, down 3 cents from last week and about 9 cents lower than the national average.
The top 10% of stations in the country average $4.29 per gallon, while the bottom 10% average $2.47 per gallon.
The states with the lowest average prices: Oklahoma ($2.56), Texas ($2.57), Mississippi ($2.61).
The states with the highest average prices: Hawaii ($4.52), California ($4.48), and Washington ($3.93).
Biggest weekly changes: New Mexico (-15.6¢), Ohio (+13.6¢), Florida (-13.3¢), Oklahoma (-10.5¢), Colorado (-10.1¢)
DIESEL PRICE TRENDS
The most common U.S. diesel price stood at $3.49 per gallon, unchanged from last week, followed by $3.39, $3.59, $3.29, and $3.69 rounding out the top five most common prices.
The median U.S. diesel price is $3.47 per gallon, down 2 cents from last week and about 5 cents lower than the national average for diesel.
Diesel prices at the top 10% of stations in the country average $4.42 per gallon, while the bottom 10% average $2.91 per gallon.
The states with the lowest average diesel prices: Texas ($3.03), Oklahoma ($3.03), and Mississippi ($3.12).
The states with the highest average diesel prices: Hawaii ($5.28), California ($4.82), and Washington ($4.34).
Biggest weekly changes: Oklahoma (-7.7