COLUMBUS, Ohio (WCMH) — NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center is forecasting the above-normal temperature regime across the country this fall to continue through much of the winter. The forecast for precipitation leans toward wetter-than-normal conditions in the Pacific Northwest and Great Lakes, with "equal chances" or near-normal precipitation in the Ohio Valley. Drier weather is expected across the Southern states. The expectation for generally warmer-than-normal conditions to persist is based on a developing Pacific climate pattern. The Climate Prediction Center is giving a 60% chance of La Niña emerging and lingering through March 2025. La Niña reflects a cyclical cooling of the eastern and central tropical Pacific, the opposite of El Niño, which prevailed during the winter of 2023-24. Typical average La Niña circulation across North America in the winter months. (Credit: Climate Prediction Center/NWS/NOAA) Average first snowfall in central Ohio Early November is the time we expect to see the first flurries of the season in parts of central Ohio, not counting the graupel (soft hail) that mixed with rain and hail showers on Oct. 15. On average, during the past decade Columbus saw its first snow flurries around Nov. 7. Last year, frightful flurries flew on Halloween night. Two years ago, the first snowflakes fell on Oct. 18. In 2021, flurries did not arrive until Nov. 13 and left a coating of snow (0.4 inch) the following morning. Local high schooler dedicates free time to helping kids avoid crypto scams In recent winters, the earliest snowflakes were observed on Oct. 4, 2014, while the latest date for the first sighting of flurries in Columbus was Dec. 18, 1996. The first light accumulation of snow in Columbus typically occurs around Thanksgiving -- Nov. 28, in the past decade -- and the average first 1 inch or more usually comes around Dec. 7. Seasonal snowfall Measurable snow (0.1 inch or greater) is reported on an average of 28 days, based on the the past 30 years (1991-2020) at John Glenn Columbus International Airport. A typical Columbus winter brings a mean season snowfall of 28.2 inches, with January (9.5 inches) and February (7.6 inches) generally the snowiest months. The past two winters (2022-23 and 2023-24) have been mild, averaging at least 5.5 degrees above normal, with much-below-normal snowfall. The last winter that we even reached our average value was in 2020-21, when below-normal winter temperatures prevailed. In recent years, the total snowfall in Columbus ranged from 9.3 inches in 2016-17 to a sizable 56.4 inches in the harsh winter of 2013-14. How La Niña usually affects the weather Across the lower 48 states The search for signs of what to expect this winter regarding snowfall usually focuses on Pacific climate patterns, which is only one of several factors that influence the average storm track across the continental U.S. in the winter. Other factors will include Atlantic pressure and snow cover in Eurasia and across Canada, along with natural variability. La Niña is a climate pattern that requires at least three consecutive months of sea surface temperatures averaging at least 0.9 degrees Fahrenheit below normal, according to NOAA. The influence of La Niña is reflected in the overall jet stream pattern that controls the storm track and air masses that tend to shift northward. This places a better chance for above-normal precipitation and snowfall across the northern tier of the U.S. Temperatures tend to run above normal across the southern half of the country and northward along the Eastern Seaboard and upper Ohio Valley. Places north of the jet stream usually experience more snowfall than normal in the northern portion of the country in La Niña, where temperatures are colder than normal from the northern Rockies to the Upper Midwest, Great Lakes and across northern New England. High school football playoff pairings released This winter's La Niña is expected to be on the weak side, so figures into the winter outlook. One way to gauge probable temperature and precipitation patterns this winter is to look at seasons when La Niña was not classified as neither "moderate" or "strong" based on mean seawater temperature anomalies. Here is a comparison of snowfall and temperatures for December through February since 2000, compared to the average Columbus snowfall (28.2 inches) and temperature (32.2 degrees). Weak La Niña winters and Columbus winters WINTERSNOWFALL (Oct.-May)AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Dec.-Feb.)2000-0126.329.12005-0612.934.72008-0923.229.92016-1717.131.62017-1829.832.42022-2312.537.7 Five of the six winters in La Niña conditions were light on snowfall, versus the 30-year average (1991-2020), while temperatures were above-normal in half of the winters. Yet, half of the Januarys featured below-normal temperatures, indicating an eventual southward shift of the jet stream for a short period of time in midwinter. Interestingly, looking at six moderate La Niña seasons since 1950, which indicates a greater cold seawater anomaly, half of the winters were colder than normal with above-average snowfall. In fact, one of the snowiest winters on record in 1995-96 (54.1 inches) occurred during La Niña. Of course, winter weather is subject to other unpredictable features, including an occasional visit from the polar vortex in an otherwise mild season.