NEW ORLEANS (WGNO) — A new tropical storm is expected to form within the next 24 hours and will likely move into the Gulf of Mexico by Wednesday. The National Hurricane Center has designated a tropical disturbance in the Caribbean Sea as "Potential Tropical Cyclone Eighteen." The system is expected to strengthen into a tropical storm by Monday before moving across western Cuba as a hurricane on Wednesday. Once the system reaches tropical storm status, it will likely be named Rafael. The storm is expected weaken some as it moves into the central Gulf of Mexico by Thursday or Friday. Current water temperatures in the Caribbean are in the mid-80s, supporting the potential for a tropical storm or even a hurricane. However, water temperatures in the northern Gulf have dropped a few degrees over the last couple of weeks. Sea surface temperatures in the upper-70s to lower-80s are less supportive of a strong storm. Increased wind shear would also likely disrupt any system moving northward, so if this storm does head for the northern Gulf Coast, it would probably weaken some before a potential landfall. There is good consensus among the major forecast models on the storm's potential path over the next couple of days, but there is still disagreement on where the system may go once it enters the Gulf of Mexico. Models will likely get into better agreement once the storm develops a low-level center of circulation and more data is provided by Hurricane Hunters over the next day or two. It’s rare for hurricanes to make landfall in the United States in November. In fact, it’s only happened three times on record — in 1861, 1935, and 1985. And only one of those three storms, Hurricane Kate (1985), made landfall on the Gulf Coast. Stay up to date with the latest news, weather and sports by downloading the WGNO app on the Apple or Google Play stores and by subscribing to the WGNO newsletter. Latest Posts Dems want to turn GOP-held South Texas congressional seat back to blue See where Louisiana ranks in US states with longest prison sentences Blaney races way into NASCAR championship finale to attempt to defend his Cup Series title Mariah Carey's holiday pop-up bar heading to New Orleans Do you have to fill out the entire 2024 election ballot? Here's what to know