North Carolina supermajority likely at stake in the 2024 election
Nov 01, 2024
CHARLOTTE (QUEEN CITY NEWS) -- The 2024 election cycle could determine how North Carolina is governed.
With polls giving AG Josh Stein a big lead in the race for governor, many eyes are turning to the races for the state legislature as the Republican supermajority hangs in the balance.
In both the NC Senate and House, Republicans hold their veto-proof supermajority by a single seat. That means if Democrats can net at least one seat in either chamber, a potential Governor Josh Stein could reject any bill he does not like.
A divided state government isn’t common, according to Western Carolina political science professor Chris Cooper.
“It is pretty unusual, right? I mean, you could look at states like Kansas that have a Democratic governor and Republican legislature, a state like Kentucky that has it, but it's very unusual,” said Cooper.
State Republicans have held their dual chamber supermajority since 2023. In the Senate, Republicans hold 30, while Democrats have 20. In the House, it’s 71-48. One seat in the House is vacant.
With that two-thirds supermajority, Democratic Governor Roy Cooper cannot successfully veto any bill that has complete Republican support, as a two-thirds vote of both chambers can override any veto. So the question for Tuesday is if Republicans can gain, lose, or maintain seats. Experts say it will be tight, specifically in districts in and around Charlotte and Raleigh.
“That’s where the Republican gerrymander has tried to what I call the ‘hyper-hyper gerrymander’ is working to try to carve out some support,” said Professor Pope McCorkle with Duke’s School of Public Policy.
Locally, the race for District 105 in Mecklenburg County has received a lot of attention. Democrat Nicole Sidman is challenging Tricia Cotham. Cotham made headlines in 2023 when she switched parties, giving Republicans their supermajority in the General Assembly.
Chris Cooper said it could be a difference-maker: “It’s an expensive seat. It's a competitive seat. And it's got a really fascinating backstory and storyline.”