Get an insider’s look into what’s happening in and around the halls of power with expert reporting, analysis and insight from the editors and reporters of Montana Free Press. Sign up to get the free Capitolized newsletter delivered to your inbox every Thursday. Sign up October 31, 2024Late in the general election cycle, organizers of Constitutional Initiative 126 began seeing some unexpected opponents of the effort to jettison Montana’s separate-party June primaries in favor of a single multiparty primary ballot that would advance up to four candidates.Buying opposition ads was a committee sporting eastern U.S. House district candidate Troy Downing’s name. Another committee appeared to be aligned with western district House incumbent Rep. Ryan Zinke. Both Downing and Zinke are Republicans.U.S. Sen. Steve Daines’ federal joint fundraising committee, “Daines Senate Majority Fund,” also purchased issue ads against CI-126 at candidate advertising rates, records show. Daines isn’t up for reelection until 2026.Caitie Butler of Montanans for Election Reform, the committee supporting CI-126, decided to investigate. What she found was that Republicans running for federal office are using a new campaign finance loophole allowing joint fundraising committees to buy ads against CI-126 at a discount rate offered to committees associated with federal candidates, but not initiatives.As nonpartisan election watchdog Campaign Legal Center explained in mid-October, keen-eyed voters scanning “paid for by” information on ads began noticing words like “victory fund” following candidates’ names on ads a few years ago. The distinction is used by joint fundraising committees created to combine candidate campaign cash with funding from political party committees like the National Republican Senatorial Committee, as well as super PACs, political action committees that can raise unlimited amounts of money from donors and corporations.Records show that the joint fundraising committees associated with Downing and Zinke buying ads against CI-126 are major donors targeting the initiative. Because those fundraising committees are associated with federal candidates, they get a cut-rate deal on TV advertising. Butler said a 30-second spot that costs Montanans for Election Reform $4,000, costs the JFC $400. The Federal Election Commission stalled on an attempt to limit the ad buying of JFCs earlier in October, when the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee asked for an advisory opinion. The DSCC was concerned about JFC spending in several Senate races, including Montana’s. —Tom LuteyPREDICTING TURNOUTAt the pace Montanans are currently voting, Evan Wilson expects the total number of absentee ballots cast this cycle to hit 498,000 by Tuesday, Election Day. Wilson does election analytics for Republican campaigns in Montana. He’s the person who forecasts how many votes it will take to win Montana’s top-ticket races, which means forecasting total ballots cast.Wednesday, with less than a week left to vote, Montanans had turned in 338,832 ballots, well short of Wilson’s predicted 498,000. He told Capitolized he is nonetheless confident voters will deliver.The reason for his certainty is what’s known as “404 voters.”“A 404 voter is someone who voted in the 2016 presidential election and has voted in all federal elections since then,” Wilson said. There are enough of those voters to push Montana’s absentee ballot count to 498,000 by the time voting ends at 8 p.m. on Nov. 5.Wilson tracks a lot of different trends in Montana voting. He knows that the majority of Montana voters in this cycle don’t identify as Montana natives. Only 35% of those polled do, though another third, who have lived in the state for at least 20 years, still don’t. In Montana’s western U.S. House district, 53% of voters weren’t living in Montana when incumbent Rep. Ryan Zinke was first elected to Congress in 2014. Wilson says 2024 turnout — the percentage of Montanans who are registered to vote and who actually vote — is likely to look like 2016, which is to say in the mid-70th percentile.The high-water mark for voting by mail was 2020, when COVID-19 prompted Montana to issue mail ballots to every voter, return postage paid. There were 612,075 ballots cast that year, and Republicans won every statewide race. As explained by Jeremy Johnson, head of the political science department at Carroll College, 2020 demonstrated that when it became easier for unlikely Montana voters to vote, they voted in line with their neighbors. And the election produced some surprises, such as Lewis and Clark County voters, who normally favor Democrats, reelecting Republican incumbent Sen. Steve Daines over Democratic challenger and then-Gov. Steve Bullock.Lewis and Clark, home to the state capital, is a county Johnson has his eye on this year.—Tom LuteySHERIFFS ALARMED BY TESTER AD Readers alerted Capitolized this week to newspaper ads for U.S. Sen. Jon Tester featuring photos of local county law enforcement vehicles and promoting law enforcement funding that Tester supported, in some cases when no other member of Montana’s congressional delegation did.Some people keyed on the patrol cars featured in the ads and assumed that Tester was suggesting being endorsed by local sheriffs in the markets where the ads appeared. By midweek, those sheriffs were on social media clarifying that they weren’t endorsing anyone in Montana’s U.S. Senate race. Monica Robinson with the Tester campaign clarified a few things about the ads to Capitolized on Thursday. The ads don’t suggest endorsements by local law enforcement officials, she said. Tester votes on bills like the Operation Stonegarden Authorization Act, which funds local law enforcement and border security, including money for hiring new officers at some sheriff’s offices around the state. In markets where new deputies were hired, the relationship to Tester’s votes was included in the ads.The ads also referenced money directed toward law enforcement through the Violence Against Women Act, a frequently renewed bill that Tester supports.Another source of money represented in the ads is Payments in Lieu of Taxes, often called PILT dollars. These are funds that counties receive to compensate for tax-exempt federal land in their jurisdictions. Only a couple of Montana counties are free of federal land — hello, Daniels Co. — and so don’t receive PILT funding, which is spent on several things in addition to law enforcement. “From hiring new police officers, to purchasing new equipment like bulletproof vests, to establishing task forces to tackle drug trafficking, Jon has fought to fund the needs of Montana’s first responders. Jon will always work with anyone to ensure Montana law enforcement has the resources they need to keep Montana the Last Best Place,” said Tester campaign spokesperson Harry Child.Tester ads focused on veterans’ issues include photos of VA clinics, and ads concerning public lands include photos of public lands, Robinson added.  —Tom LuteyPROGRAMMING NOTECapitolized is taking the week off next week in lieu of wall-to-wall election results coverage at montanafreepress.org. We’ll be back in your inbox on Thursday, Nov. 14.On Background:In addition to a slate of federal and statewide races, Montana voters next week will be asked to weigh in on a pair of proposed amendments to the state Constitution rewriting the process by which they choose their elected officials. Through mid-October, political action committees have spent $137.3 million supporting or opposing incumbent Democratic U.S. Sen. Jon Tester and Republican challenger Tim Sheehy. Meet the big spenders. Montana’s senior senator has made a career out of staying one step ahead of the state’s rising red tide. Now the last Montana Democrat in statewide office is counting on split-ticket Trump voters to keep him out of retirement.The post How to get a deep discount on political ad buys appeared first on Montana Free Press.