THE 10 BEST GAMES TO BET COMMANDERS at GIANTS 1 p.m., Commanders by 3 ½, 43 ½ HANK’S HONEYS: Hail Jayden. The kid is the real deal. Daniel Jones, sadly, is not. Maybe he’ll blossom one day with a new team a la Sam Darnold, but, for now, Giants fans are stuck with the slow-reading first rounder just as he is stuck with the Giants O-line. Not a good combo indeed, especially with the Commanders’ ability to get after the passer. So, are we looking at a sucker line and a fade spot here? Washington certainly seems to have more talent, more motivation and more karma. Still, this is a classic letdown situation for the Commanders and Jones historically owns them. Nah, the eyes don’t lie. As the old fight song goes, hail to the … IF I WERE A BETTING MAN: Commanders and the over. CHARGERS at BROWNS 1 p.m., Chargers by 2 ½, 42 ½ HANK’S HONEYS: There is no denying that the Chargers have become a model of stability under Jim Harbaugh. But their MO plays into the strengths of the Browns, a match for their physicality. Jameis Winston has changed the entire outlook of the Browns’ locker room and, while there’s always the danger of throwing a game-turning INT, he can do for the offense what Joe Flacco did for it last season. Last week’s win over the Ravens could be a turning point for a team that was playing below its talent level because the wrong QB was starting. IF I WERE A BETTING MAN: Browns and the over. DOLPHINS at BILLS 1 p.m., Bills by 6 ½, 50 HANK’S HONEYS: This is the Bills’ chance to take complete control of the AFC East, a situation made for Josh Allen, who is 7-0 SU, 6-1 ATS for his career against the Fins. Buffalo’s ability to pound the ball against a meh run defense should set up Allen to make plays everywhere, especially with his newest toy Amari Cooper, and with Khalil Shakir back from an ankle injury. Tua Tagovailoa wasn’t bad in his return, but he couldn’t save the season against the Cardinals with Miami blowing a 10-point second half lead. That collapse is a symptom of bigger problems. The Bills have won four games by more than 20 points. This could make it five. IF I WERE A BETTING MAN: Bills and the under. BRONCOS at RAVENS 1 p.m., Ravens by 9 ½, 45 ½ HANK’S HONEYS: It’s either the Broncos or nothing. It’s just too many points for a matchup of 5-3 teams, even considering Denver’s soft schedule. The Ravens should bounce back from their loss in Cleveland last week but not in blowout fashion against a defense this good. We’ve said this before, but the Ravens’ secondary has been totally out of sorts since their coordinator, Mike Macdonald, took the Seattle job. It’s been particularly telling in the second half, where Baltimore has allowed more points than anyone in the league. Bo Nix has been serviceable enough to keep Denver in it. IF I WERE A BETTING MAN: Broncos and the over. SAINTS at PANTHERS 1 p.m., Saints by 7, 43 ½ HANK’S HONEYS: The return of Derek Carr and Chris Olave makes this a Saints lean. We don’t love giving seven with a team that’s lost six straight, but the Panthers are abysmal and offer New Orleans a great chance to get back track. Bryce Young wasn’t any better last week than he was before he got benched and now they’ve traded away his No. 1 receiver. Who wouldn’t want to play them? The Panthers are heading toward spiral mode, if they are not there already. IF I WERE A BETTING MAN: Saints and the under. BEARS at CARDINALS 4:05 p.m., Cards by 2 ½, 44 ½ HANK’S HONEYS: The Bears are the better team but how do they react after last week’s last second debacle? For that matter, how do the Cardinals play now that they are surprisingly in control of the NFC West? It probably comes down to the Bears’ defense, by far the best of the four units on the field. You’d figure they will be highly motivated, and they certainly have the ability to shut down an offense that has scored 17 or fewer points in half their games. Defending Kyler Murray isn’t that different from defending Jayden Daniels. Even the two systems are similar. And they did a pretty good job until that last throw. IF I WERE A BETTING MAN: Bears and the under. LIONS at PACKERS 4:25 p.m., Lions by 3 ½, 47 ½ HANK’S HONEYS: Betting 101 says Packers. The Lions, everyone’s betting darlings, are set up for a trap. Jared Goff and that high-scoring offense are a little bit less-so when performing on grass and, while Jordan Love’s injury status is a big issue, he’s listed as day-to-day, which usually means he’s playing. Even if he can’t go, Malik Willis has been an excellent backup, running those RPOs. And running in general is the way to attack this Detroit defense as a way to slow them down. The Lions have survived Aidan Hutchinson’s injury but here is where it may bite them. Give Love time and he’ll burn you downfield. Blindly betting Detroit each week has been profitable, but so has been betting Matt LaFleur as an underdog (24-11 ATS). We’ll grab the hook and hold on for dear life. IF I WERE A BETTING MAN: Packers and the over. RAMS at SEAHAWKS 4:25 p.m., Seahawks by 1 ½, 48 ½ HANK’S HONEYS: The Rams looked like a different team with Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp in the lineup and they should be running wild again if Matthew Stafford gets the kind of pass protection Josh Allen got against the Seahawks last week. Geno Smith should be able to put up some points against the Rams’ pass defense (bet the over), especially if DK Metcalf returns but the Seahawks can’t run the ball as well as the Rams can. Emotionally, the two teams are totally opposed. The Rams, coming off 10 days rest, have figured it out and are still in the thick of the NFC West. The Seahawks are asking questions of themselves and in danger of falling out of it. IF I WERE A BETTING MAN: Rams and the over. COLTS at VIKINGS 8:20 p.m., Vikings by 5 ½, 46 ½ HANK’S HONEYS: It’s a horrible spot for the Colts. They are coming off a hard-fought divisional loss and must travel for a second straight week to take on one of the NFC’s best teams looking to rebound from two straight losses by making a statement on prime time. Anthony Richardson is being benched with Joe Flacco to the rescue again, hardly a morale booster for Indy. Richardson would no doubt have shrunk against Minny’s confusing scheme and constant blitzes, ergo Flacco. The problem is, Flacco will be a sitting target for that pass rush. Then there’s the total mismatch on the other side of the ball. Yet, for some reason, the line was bet down early in the week. Jump on it. IF I WERE A BETTING MAN: Vikings and the over. BUCS at CHIEFS Monday, 8:15 p.m., Chiefs by 9 ½, 49 ½ HANK’S HONEYS: Under is the way to go here. The Chiefs aren’t their high-flying old selves while all the offensive injuries that didn’t show up for the Bucs against the Falcons will show up here. The Chiefs have held six of their seven opponents to 20 or fewer points. Tampa Bay is all about Baker Mayfield. As gritty as he is, he’s not going to be able to do it all by himself without a running game — and we don’t see the Bucs being able to do much against the league’s second rated rushing defense. The Bucs lead the league in third down conversion rate but if they can’t run on first and second down, Mayfield will be in bad down and distance situations. It’s only a Bucs lean catching the points. IF I WERE A BETTING MAN: Bucs and the under. LOOK BUT DON’T TOUCH COWBOYS at FALCONS 1 p.m., Falcons by 2 ½, 52 HANK’S HONEYS: The total has been bet up, for good reason. The two defenses bleed points, the Falcons’ offense keeps scoring and Dak Prescott, for once, will have a chance to do something with Atlanta completely unable to rush the passer. The side is trickier. Both teams have been inconsistent, although the Falcons are feeling a lot better about their results than the Cowboys, where the vibe couldn’t be worse. Tight ends have been killing the Cowboys and Kyle Pitts should have a big day. So should Atlanta’s running game. But Prescott and CeeDee Lamb did start to connect better against the Niners and the Atlanta defense is struggling. The coin flip lands on the home team. CAN’T HELP YOURSELF?: Falcons and the over BEST OF THE REST PATRIOTS at TITANS 1 p.m., Titans by 3, 38 IF I WERE A BETTING MAN: Patriots and the under. RAIDERS at BENGALS 1 p.m., Bengals by 7 ½, 46 IF I WERE A BETTING MAN: Raiders and the over. JAGUARS at EAGLES 4:05 p.m., Eagles by 7, 46 IF I WERE A BETTING MAN: Jaguars and the over. * * * WEEK’S BEST BET: Vikings. It won’t be close. LAST WEEK: 8-8, 8-8 over/under OVERALL: 55-65-3, 65-57-1 over/under BEST BETS: 5-3