Kansas net farm income projected to drop by $1.24 billion in 2024
Oct 31, 2024
TOPEKA (KSNT) - Economists with Kansas State University project net farm income will fall in 2024 following a period of record highs.
K-State issued a publication on Oct. 30 stating a report conducted in association with the Rural and Farm Finance Policy Analysis Center (RaFF) shows net farm income dropping in 2024 by $1.24 billion. However, this research shows farm income remains at the third highest level since 2013.
“A $1.66 billion (-63%) decline in crop insurance indemnities along with a $660 million (-8%) reduction in crop receipts would more than offset the $1.58 billion (+10%) rise in livestock receipts,” according the report.
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Joe Parcell, a K-state agricultural economist, said he was most concerned about a lack of financial tools to help income-strapped producers. This is on top of the RaFF report which found Kansas' projected 21% drop in net farm income to be higher than the projected 6.2% fall in U.S. net farm income.
“For one, there is no sign of trade/pandemic emergency payments to farmers like we saw 2018 through 2022," Parcell said. "Second, if I’m having trouble repaying loans that I financed two years ago at low interest rates, then refinancing now at higher interest rates doesn’t help the producer’s situation.”
K-State points out that despite this projected decline for 2024, net farm income is still the third highest since 2013 after record-setting levels were set in 2021 and 2023. Parcell highlighted two items following his analysis of the three-year average of Kansas farm income.
“The first is that Kansas didn’t get as large a drop-off in farm income because the early 2020s drought held us back from the peak farm income the rest of the country got,” Parcell said. “And secondly, the strength of the cattle market is going to, on average, allow Kansas projected farm income to remain flat, whereas the country as a whole continues with a drop-off from the peak years.”
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The RaFF and K-State report also identified several other key findings. These include:
Purchased livestock expenses hit record-levels in 2024, leading to a slight increase in production expenses. Feed, fertilizer and interest expenses came down in 2024 despite the rise in total production expenses which are projected to drop 3% in 2025.
Total planted crop area fell in 2024 due to a transition towards more corn and soybeans. More normal growing conditions for wheat bumped up harvested acres by 1.4 million, leading to a 113-million-bushel larger crop than seen last year. Crop receipts are expected to fall by $700 million.
Cash receipts are projected to rise by 10% as higher prices push receipts up, despite a small drop in Kansas' cattle and calves' inventory for 2024.
“RaFF’s Farm Income Outlook for calendar years 2024 and 2025 is intended to inform policymakers, industry analysts, and agricultural practitioners about the expected profitability of the local agricultural sector and its main drivers,” said RaFF Director Alejandro Plastina. “RaFF’s state-level projections complement and add granularity to national projections by the USDA and FAPRI-MU, providing valuable insights on local agricultural trends."
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