The economic October surprise
Oct 29, 2024
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Business & Economy
Business & Economy
The Big Story
Consumers feel more confident ahead of Election Day
A new survey shows that American consumers are feeling more optimistic a week out from Election Day — but they’re still not as confident as they were before the pandemic.
© The Associated PressThe Conference Board’s consumer confidence index surged to 108.7 in October from 99.2 in September. That’s the biggest monthly gain since March 2021 and blows past analysts’ forecast of 99.3. “Consumers’ assessments of current business conditions turned positive. Views on the current availability of jobs rebounded after several months of weakness, potentially reflecting better labor market data,” said Dana M. Peterson, chief economist at The Conference Board. The final jobs report before the election is slated to come out Friday, providing a pivotal snapshot of the labor market in an election where the economy is a top issue for voters. Vice President Harris has sought to make the case for the Biden administration’s handling of the post-pandemic recovery, during which the labor market held strong despite widespread recession fears.
But Trump still has an edge in the polls when it comes to the economy for voters, despite predictions from experts that his economic policies could balloon the national debt and fuel inflation.
In another sign of consumers' increasing confidence, Matthew Shay, president and CEO National Retail Federation, told reporters this month that the organization is forecasting a record holiday shopping season.
“Overall, the economy has been in a good place this year,” Shay said. “We know going into the holiday season that consumers continue to show resilience, and they show strength in their spending.”
The Hill's Taylor Giorno has more here.
Welcome to The Hill’s Business & Economy newsletter, we’re Aris Folley and Taylor Giorno — covering the intersection of Wall Street and Pennsylvania Avenue.
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Essential Reads
Key business and economic news with implications this week and beyond:
Republicans unveil emergency bill to fund tapped-out disaster loan program Senate Republicans released legislation this week that aims to replenish funds for a key federal program that provides disaster loans to businesses and homeowners.
Full Story
Tech leaders mend fences with Trump ahead of electionThe leaders of major technology companies are making overtures to former President Trump as Election Day nears and the Republican candidate appears in solid position in the final days of the race.
Full Story
Airlines now required to provide automatic refunds for canceled, significantly delayed flights
U.S. airlines are now required to give passengers an automatic refund for canceled or significantly delayed flights and for services that were paid for but not provided, such as Wi-Fi or entertainment.
Full Story
The Ticker
Upcoming news themes and events we're watching:
The first estimate for third-quarter GDP comes out Wednesday at 8:30 a.m. ET. In Other News Branch out with more stories from the day:
Google’s moneymaking machine still pumping out massive profits despite multiple threatsSAN FRANCISCO (AP) — Google is still thriving while the company navigates through a pivotal shift …
Full Story
Good to Know
Business and economic news we've flagged from other outlets:
Dow ends down over 150 points, Nasdaq posts fresh record with Alphabet earnings on tap (MarketWatch)
America’s CEOs don’t have the stomach for Trump’s promised revenge tour (CNN)
Harris vs. Trump: Auto insiders weigh in on both candidates, top issues (CNBC)
What Others are Reading
Top stories on The Hill right now:
Live updates: Harris to pledge ‘common ground’ in Ellipse speech; Trump stumps in Pennsylvania
Vice President Harris will make her closing argument to voters one week before Election Day in Washington, D.C., as former President Trump heads to Pennsylvania. Read more
Early, mail-in votes raise questions about possible election results
The first votes of the 2024 presidential election are rolling in, raising questions about what can be gleaned from the data in forecasting the possible outcome of the race. Read more
What People Think
Opinions related to business and economic issues submitted to The Hill:
Taxes will go up no matter who becomes president. The question is, how much?Two decades of unlimited money in politics has transformed US democracy
You're all caught up. See you tomorrow!