Portions of Louisiana’s political class have speculated that U.S. Sen. Bill Cassidy would serve two terms in the upper chamber and call it a day, rather than run for reelection in 2026. A glance at his fundraising totals, however, tells a very different story. Cassidy is not only far ahead of his fundraising pace compared to his last election, he also has the best-funded campaign of any Senate candidate in Louisiana history (at this point in the cycle), according to his campaign team. Cassidy has raised almost $1.5 million across his reelection, leadership and joint fundraising committees in the third quarter of 2024—the last full quarter before the 2026 election cycle begins. He will close the quarter with $5.8 million in cash for his main election committee and more than $1 million in his SuperPAC. Not to mention the $2.2 million he has raised or given to help Republicans who are in Senate races this year. All this with two years to go in his current term. “Our donors include people who have been with Sen. Cassidy since the beginning but also include many new people,” a spokesperson says. “There is a lot of enthusiasm from folks all over the state who appreciate Sen. Cassidy delivering for Louisiana.” A closer review of his campaign finances, though, reveals Cassidy is relying heavily on large individual contributions this cycle, as opposed to small-dollar donors like the campaign of U.S. Sen. John Kennedy, as well as strong support from political action committees. While health professionals have always represented the leading industry for Cassidy in terms of donations, he has managed to increase their level of engagement this term, pulling in greater contributions this go-around from pharmaceutical companies, health services outfits, health maintenance organizations, hospital systems and nursing homes, in particular. As such, Team Cassidy doesn’t seem to have any specific concerns about his reelection, at least not publicly. But should they be worried? Cassidy’s vote to convict then-President Donald Trump in Trump’s second impeachment trial earned an official rebuke from the Louisiana GOP. Under President Joe Biden, Cassidy helped craft a bipartisan infrastructure bill that his Republican delegation colleagues rejected. His team views the impeachment vote as ancient history, adding that Cassidy worked closely with Trump during his first term as president and looks forward to doing so again. And they’re happy to tout the infrastructure bill; as it turns out, people like roads, bridges and flood protection. But even if Cassidy is broadly popular, he still is mistrusted by much of the conservative base. And in 2026, assuming he’s running as a Republican, he will have to get through a party primary, where he could face a serious challenge from his right. Cassidy has bashed the new primary system that Gov. Jeff Landry pushed through with U.S. Sen. John Kennedy’s blessing, citing the cost. But his supporters will note that he won party primaries in 2008 and 2010 in his races for the U.S. House. “He’s going to need money to fend off whoever is going to run against him,” says Pearson Cross, a political scholar who directs the School of Behavioral & Social Sciences at UL Monroe. “If he does face a well-known and well-funded challenger from the right, that could be a real problem for him.” But who might that challenger be? Treasurer John Fleming is one possibility. He finished fifth in the 2016 open primary for the Senate seat that Kennedy won, and served in the U.S. House and in the Trump administration. Public Service Commissioner Eric Skrmetta is another. He was chosen to deliver the Louisiana delegates’ votes for Trump during the Republican National Convention, where there was chatter that he might make a run at Cassidy in 2026. Of current delegation members, Cross could see U.S. Rep. Clay Higgins taking a shot. But while political analyst, former Senate staffer and Dillard University professor Robert Collins also expects a challenge to Cassidy from the right, he doesn’t see any real threats on the horizon. “It would need to be a Trump-endorsed candidate who is already known statewide and can raise external money from outside of the state, and I don’t know who that would be,” Collins says. “Other than Jeff Landry, the person that I just mentioned doesn’t exist.” And at this point, Landry does not appear to have a burning desire to return to D.C., where he served a term in the House. Incumbent senators are hard to dislodge, and they get donations from groups that only give to incumbents. “Whatever his challenger has [in their campaign war chest], he’s going to be able to triple or quadruple it,” Collins says. Jeremy Alford publishes LaPolitics Weekly, a newsletter on Louisiana politics, at LaPolitics.com. Follow him on Facebook or X (formerly Twitter). He can be reached at [email protected].