Three things on my mind as I head out to Seattle, my favorite road trip in the NFL... Just Keep Scoring The Seahawks are one of two teams in the NFL who are yet to be held under 20 points. (I'll let you guess at the other team for a second or two and provide the answer a bit further down). Star wideout DK Metcalf is doubtful for Sunday with a knee injury. Seattle is more likely playing games hoping the Bills burn prep time worried about Metcalf than holding out any real hope he's in uniform. Seattle still has plenty of solid weapons. Even at age 32, Tyler Lockett is on pace for his sixth 900-yard season in the last seven years. Jaxon Smith-Njigba is in his second season after being the top receiver taken in last year's draft. He's on pace for 90 receptions of his own. Kenneth Walker might be the most underrated two-way running back in the league. He's averaging 4.7 yards per carry and his 23 receptions are only only less than how many the three Buffalo RBs have combined. And Walker has missed two games. Geno Smith has found a renaissance in Seattle two seasons ago after six years as a backup quarterback. He's far from the league's best QB, but Seattle still has the NFL's number-one passing offense. It's fairly hard to do that without the trigger puller having some redeemable qualities. Smith has a plus arm and isn't afraid to sling it in a tight window. Even if you haven't seen his touchdown to Metcalf at the end of the half of last week's win over Atlanta (Feel free to go find it. It's a beaut), the situation says everything about the throw. Seattle had 3rd and 15 with ten seconds left in the first half from the Falcons 31-yard line. Everything about that down, distance, ball location, time remaining screams short, safe throw. All Atlanta really had to defend in in that situation was the end zone and Smith found a window anyway. Not having Metcalf will certainly sap some of the Seattle explosiveness on offense, but the Seahawks should still be expected to put up points. The Bills will need a bunch themselves to win. (By the way... the other team yet to be held under 20 points is the Washington Commanders. Bet that wasn't the team you expected.) Ready To Cook? A good way to about scoring against the Seahawks is on the ground. Seattle is allowing five yards per carry, 28th best in the NFL. They are one of four teams who have already allowed over a thousand rushing yards. James Cook didn't quite look himself last week against the Titans. Tennessee did hold Buffalo to a season-low 74 rush yards as a team, but Cook didn't seem to have the same vision or certainty he normally brings. It's very possible the toe injury that sat Cook down against the Jets was still an issue. Cook was totally off the Bills injury report this week and should have ample opportunity to torture the Seahawks defense as other backs have done lately (more on that in a minute). I would not be surprised if many fantasy owners with Cook end up quite satisfied this weekend. Early Expectations The Bills have gotten behind at least ten points in three of their last four games. Two of those games led to losses and the issue was still a topic Bills players volunteered in the locker room after they rallied from the most recent of those slow starts against Tennessee. Sean McDermott admitted there wasn't yet a diagnosis of the problem because, if the head coach had that, he would have solved it already. There are plenty of theories. Taron Johnson believes the Bills need to slow the game down sooner. Calm the mind from the typical pregame hype. Connor McGovern thinks getting that first first down will get the offense rolling quicker. The Bills did go three and out on their first three possessions last Sunday. I wonder if the young-ish coordinators are just getting outprepared Monday through Saturday. It's not even a knock. Joe Brady and Bobby Babich might need more work in this area or they might have simply ran into a few teams in a row who did a better job. The game planners on the other teams get paid, too. Regardless the particular issue, the Bills realize it's something they need to get fixed. Tennessee could only turn their early advantage into a 10-0 lead. Seattle has the offense to further punish if Buffalo isn't ready to go quickly. Betting Things It's rough in the prop betting streets. Four losses in a row now, though I'm convinced the Will Levis injury cost me a win last week. I was planning to bet at least one Levis interception. When Mason Rudolph was named the starter, I thought about a pivot to the same wager with him. The line was a prohibitive -165, so I chased a little more juice betting two total interceptions with Rudolph and Josh Allen combined. Alas, Allen continued his streak of impressive ball protection and the Bills only got Rudolph once. It left me 3-4 for the year and in the red for 1.2 units. Getting desperate for a win, I'm going to chase the aforementioned rushing vulnerability in Seattle. The Cook rushing line is 60.5 yards. In the last four games, Seattle has actually allowed five such rushers. San Francisco's Jordan Mason ran for 73 yards two weeks ago and then got hurt. His backup, Isaac Guerendo, followed with 99 yards of his own. Most of it came on a very late 76-yard run. Cook is only 50-50 topping 60 yards this year (three times in six games) and there's a concern Ray Davis has played well enough to eat into Cook's carry total. In the first game after Davis' breakout performance against the Jets, Cook still had 12 rushes to only five for Davis. I'm confident enough that trend continues to make Cook's over the play. I took it at -115 on DraftKings. The Pick The loss of Terrel Bernard and DeWayne Carter is going to take some of the sting from the Bills run defense. Carter has been a big play revelation the last few weeks. Buffalo's run defense numbers are worse than Seattle's. I think the Seahawks will test that run D plenty, especially if Metcalf is not in uniform. The Metcalf injury is a big swing in this game. At full strength, the Seattle receiving core shares much in common with the Texans: an elite, physical star at the top (Metcalf, Nico Collins), a veteran, route runner that has produced heavily in his career (Lockett, Stefon Diggs) and a second-year slot option with high expectations (Smith-Njigba, Tank Dell). That Houston offense had 14 points on the board against Buffalo in the blink of an eye. Seattle had a good chance to be a similar pain in the neck, especially in their exceedingly difficult home environment. Just like against Houston, it seems the Bills won't have to face the passing game at full strength. The Bills offense now has their own top receiver in Amari Cooper and are likely just scratching the surface of what he and Allen can do. Seattle's defense does a better job against the pass than the run. They are actually number one in pressure percentage (without blitzing much) and rank 7th with 20 sacks through seven games. They still aren't anywhere close to elite against the pass. I think the Bills can put up all the points they need. Seattle is coming off a fairly impressive thrashing of the Falcons on the road, but lost convincingly at home to the two-win Giants and went to overtime with the one-win Patriots. The Seahawks resume at 4-3 is fairly lackluster. To be fair, a win in Seattle would be the first for the Bills against a team with a winning record. I feel better about the experienced defensive head coach in Buffalo dealing with a couple significant injuries on the D than the new defensive head coach in Seattle overcoming the likely loss of his top offensive weapon. The long trip west and the Lumen Field 12th man make this a tricky game for almost any team. I like the over and I like the Bills, 33-27.