Oct 25, 2024
The best pitching the Yankees will face in October is behind them. The Royals owned the toughest starters led by Cole Ragans, Seth Lugo and Michael Wacha while Guardians trotted out the league’s best bullpen — 2.57 ERA. The star-studded Dodgers will be a significant challenge for the Yankees in the World Series but not necessarily for the arms they will deploy. The Bombers’ struggles against left-handed pitchers have been well documented as their team OPS drops to .721 against southpaws from .777 against righties. However, even the Dodgers lefties present a good matchup for the Yankees. Dave Roberts’ group as a whole will include just two lefties — both in the bullpen — Anthony Banda and Alex Vesia. The two relievers most thrown pitch is a four-seam fastball — though Banda tends to mix in a sinker as well. The Bombers own a .822 OPS against four-seamers, including the postseason, thrown by left-handed pitchers and Vesia — who has been regarded as an X-factor for the Dodgers out of the stable — throws his fastball 63 percent of the time. The club also demolish left-handed sinkers, slashing .316/.423/.465 as Banda throws both of his heaters a combined 59% of the time. The Yankees’ favorite pitch to see in general is a four-seam fastball. The Bombers mash the heater especially if it’s thrown by a righty. The Yanks slash .262/.360/.483 against right-handers’ four-seams, the pitch thrown the most by all three of the Dodgers starters Jack Flaherty, Yoshinobu Yamamoto and Walker Buehler. Aaron Boone’s squad was the best-hitting team in baseball against right-handed pitching, owning the league’s best OPS so the more righties the merrier and the Dodgers certainly deploy mostly right-handers. What the Yanks like to see least out of pitcher’s hands is an offspeed — changeup or splitter. As a group, the American League champs slash .211/.280/.329 against offspeed and it gets even worse when you only account for the postseason — slashing .115/.233/.135. Outside of Yamamoto — whose splitter is his featured secondary pitch — offspeeds are either absent or an afterthought for the Dodgers’ biggest arms. Flaherty and Buehler’s changeup accounts for five or less percent of their arsenal. High-leverage relievers Michael Kopech, Blake Treinen and Brusdar Graterol don’t feature an offspeed in their fastball-heavy approaches. In fairness, the Yankees haven’t exactly crushed sliders and sweepers in October owning a .629 OPS against the pitches, however, not having to prepare for an offspeed should bode well for the 27-time world champs. Despite the favorable pitch mixes, the Dodgers’ pitching is no slouch. All three of their starters have been touted as aces in recent years — despite Buehler’s immense struggles pitching to a 5.38 ERA this season — and they’re so confident in their stable that they threw two bullpen games in the NLCS against the Mets. However, the arsenal deployed and the lack of left-handed presence present an incredible opportunity for the Bombers offensively. The National League champs can also mash arguably better than anyone in baseball as they own the top OPS in the league both in the regular season and the playoffs. The Yankees will have to hit and hit a lot to keep up with the deep and superstar-loaded lineup of the Dodgers. The arms Los Angeles is throwing out there in the Fall Classic provide them the best chance to break out offensively as opposed to the clubs they had to get through to reach their 41st World Series.
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