USDA made slight changes to its October 2024 crop production forecasts, but as expected, it still predicts record soybean and near-record corn crops. Chief Economist Seth Meyer says the October crop forecasts after adjustments, had no surprises. https://media-cdn.socastsrm.com/wordpress/wp-content/blogs.dir/2626/files/2024/10/meyer1.mp3 “We had a little bit of a yield increase in corn. The yield was up two-tenths of a bushel from the previous estimate. And that was in line with what trade expectations were. Let’s note that this remains the second biggest corn crop in U.S. history.” As for the soybean forecast, Meyer says…… https://media-cdn.socastsrm.com/wordpress/wp-content/blogs.dir/2626/files/2024/10/meyer2.mp3 “Even though we reduced bean yields a little bit, one-tenth of a bushel, it is the largest soybean crop in history from a combination of both being a record-high yield and a large area, the soybean production number was right in the dead center of trade expectations.” As for just how accurate the USDA forecasts are…. Lance Honig with the National Agricultural Statistics Service says the corn numbers are typically close to the mark. https://media-cdn.socastsrm.com/wordpress/wp-content/blogs.dir/2626/files/2024/10/meyer3.mp3 “Over the last 25 years, the change from October to final has only varied from going down less than a bushel to up less than five bushels, on average. Over a 25-year span, that average change from October to the final yield is only less than half a bushel.” Honig says the accuracy range for soybeans is similar, and there’s not much time left to impact the crop this growing season.