Oct 22, 2024
Mayor Todd Gloria has significantly widened his lead over challenger Larry Turner from 4 percentage points to 16 points amid a recent blitz of TV ads and mailers from both candidates, a new poll conducted for The San Diego Union-Tribune finds. The poll also shows Assemblymember Brian Maienschein with a narrow 1-point lead over Deputy City Attorney Heather Ferbert — making their battle essentially a toss-up — in the race to succeed City Attorney Mara Elliott. The poll was conducted Friday through Monday by SurveyUSA for the Union-Tribune and 10 News. It surveyed 530 registered voters over landlines, smartphones, tablets and other electronic devices, and it has a 4.8-point credibility interval, a measure of statistical uncertainty based on sample size and other factors. The city’s most visible race has largely focused on the mayor’s record, and his challenger’s lack of one. Turner has criticized Gloria for not making progress on homelessness, the housing crisis and other issues, while Gloria has insisted he’s laid a strong foundation for success in a second term. Gloria’s lead over Turner — which was 37% to 33% in a similar poll conducted five weeks ago, before two televised debates — is now 47% to 31% just two weeks before Election Day on Nov. 5. The widening gap appears to have been fueled partly by a shift to Gloria of previously undecided voters. They made up 28% of those polled last time but only 19% this time around. Despite more people coming to a decision in the race, Turner’s level of support actually dropped two points from poll to poll, falling from 33% in mid-September to 31% in the new poll. Among those who said they had already cast their ballots, about 16 percent of those polled, Gloria’s lead is nearly cut in half — 52% to 43%. Gloria leads Turner, a city police officer and former U.S. Marine, with the vast majority of demographic groups. But his leads are only in the single digits with men, seniors and people with low household incomes. Gloria leads Turner by 24 points among those who say homelessness is the No. 1 challenge facing San Diego. And he leads Turner by roughly equal margins among White, Hispanic and Asian voters. Turner leads by wide margins among those who say immigration is the most important issue facing San Diego (34 points), those voting for Donald Trump this year (31 points) and those who voted for Donald Trump in 2020 (25 points). Turner, an independent, also leads by 13 points among Republicans and 13 points among independents. Gloria, a Democrat, leads among Democrats by 43 points, 62% to 19%. Since the last poll, Gloria and Turner have faced off in two televised debates and have begun running TV ads and sending out campaign mailers. In the race for city attorney, Maienschein now leads Ferbert 29% to 28% — a margin well within the 4.8-point credibility interval. But an even greater share of voters — 37% of those polled — said they were still undecided. The city attorney’s race has focused on the two candidates’ experience, and the recent track record of the city attorney’s office. Ferbert has criticized Maienschein for his limited experience practicing law, while Maienschein has called for an overhaul of the city attorney’s office. Among those poll respondents who had already cast their ballots, 10% said they chose not vote in the city attorney contest. Another 9% said they voted in that contest, but couldn’t recall for whom. Maienschein has a large lead of 14 points among voters who describe themselves as very liberal, 34% to 20%. But 44% of those voters remain undecided. While both Maienschein and Ferbert are Democrats, he was endorsed by the county Democratic Party, Planned Parenthood and multiple environmental groups. Ferbert holds a 14-point lead among seniors, 44% to 30%. She also has narrow leads among Hispanics, 2024 Trump voters and those who support Turner for mayor. In the two-candidate March primary, Ferbert got 53 percent of the vote and Maienschein 47 percent. The new poll found strong approval for outgoing City Attorney Mara Elliott’s performance, with 47% strongly or somewhat approving and only 17% strongly or somewhat disapproving. San Diego’s high cost of living and housing remained the issue those polled consider San Diego’s biggest challenge, but to a smaller share of voters than it did previously — 44%, compared with 52% last month. Homelessness, which the second-largest share of voters chose, was cited as the top issue by 33% of those polled — up from 27% in September. Climate change finished third at 7%, ahead of immigration at 6% and crime at 4%.
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