Alonzo Adams-Imagn Images This did not go well last season, so let’s try it again! Each year at this time, I make some predictions about the upcoming NBA season, focusing on the Western Conference. Five years ago, for reasons I cannot remember, I decided to make those predictions Twitter-style, limiting myself to a total of 140 characters (including spaces between words) per team. This led to summaries like this one for the 2019-2020 Spurs: “Our Spurs! Many good/very good players, none in top 20. Best coach to maximize this type of talent? Pop, hands down. Save the streak! 8th (139 characters)” Ah, those were the days — the “streak” was consecutive playoff trips for the Spurs. That steak ended the next spring when the pandemic shut down that season on the 27-36 Spurs, leading to this article: “This year’s Spurs were just like the Girl with the Curl — When they were good, they were very good indeed, but when they were bad they were horrid.” Before last season, I predicted whether each Western Conference team would wind up over or under the Las Vegas pre-season wins prediction. How did I do? In a word — terribly. Five correct predictions, ten incorrect. The only smart thing I did was deciding not to turn my predictions into actual money bets. As I said then: “So this will be whether I would take the over or under if I had enough confidence (or stupidity) to actually put some money down. (I don’t.)” In an attempt to atone for last season’s debacle, I will return to the well. Once again, I will 1. predict whether each team will exceed their Vegas win prediction, and 2. not put my money where my mouth is. If any reader chooses to use my predictions as a guide to bet actual money, please first call 1-800-DoNotGamble. From top to bottom: OKC Thunder: Vegas prediction — 56.5 wins Vegas has OKC winning more games than anyone in the league except the defending champs. Vegas has the Celtics (and Derrick White) winning 58.5. I understand the optimism about OKC, as the Thunder has basically everyone back from last year’s excellent young team other than Josh Giddy, and they added premier defender Alex Caruso and versatile big man Isaiah Hartenstein. 57-25 sounds doable, so I will go with OVER, but just barely. Minnesota Timberwolves: Vegas prediction — 52.5 wins The T’Wolves pulled off a huge trade with the Knicks, getting Julius Randle and Donte DiVincenzo and giving up Karl-Anthony Towns. Interesting trade of bad body language guys (Randle and KAT), probably driven less by basketball reasons and more by T’Wolves’ reluctance to pay KAT huge money in upcoming seasons when they will also be paying Rudy Gobert and young superstar Anthony Edwards. While they will miss KAT’s ability to stretch the floor (and the smarts of ex-Spur Kyle “Slo-Mo” Anderson), I still think the trade will be a slight upgrade for a team that won 56 games last season. OVER. Denver Nuggets: Vegas prediction — 51.5 wins Since winning it all two seasons ago, the Nuggets have given up valuable role players Bruce Brown, Jeff Green and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, all for money reasons. The Nuggets hope to replace these players’ production with youngsters, but they haven’t stepped up yet. Are they wasting Jokic’s prime before he decides to move back to Serbia to ride his horses? UNDER. Dallas Mavericks: Vegas prediction — 49.5 wins The Mavs won 50 games last season and went to the NBA Finals, but they gave up a bunch of depth in the off-season, picking up only Klay Thompson. With possible MVP Luka Doncic and flat-earther Kyrie Irving, and Klay no longer a good defender, this is a team that will score a lot and give up a lot. In the tough Western Conference, I think the weak defense will have the Mavs slightly down from last year. UNDER. Phoenix Suns: Vegas prediction — 47.5 wins We begin a four-team scrum of clubs predicted to win either 46.5 or 47.5 games. Put another way, Vegas thinks the 8th place team in the West will either finish 47-35 or 46-36. Finishing 5th or 6th avoids the Play-In Tournament, 7th and 8th does not. As for the Suns, picking up a true point guard in Tyus Jones will be very helpful. The Suns won 49 last season despite a bunch of injuries. This is a bet that Kevin Durant will stay relatively healthy. OVER. Memphis Grizzlies: Vegas prediction — 47.5 wins The Grizzlies won only 27 games last season, largely because Desmond Bane played only 40 games, Ja Morant played only 9 and Brandon Clarke played 6. Of their top ten PPG scorers, only Jaron Jackson, Jr. played more than 50 games. Will a healthy season allow Memphis to win 20 more games than last year’s lost season? Probably. OVER. Sacramento Kings: Vegas prediction — 46.5 wins The Kings picked up ex-Spur, ex-Bull DeMar DeRozan, giving up Harrison Barnes to the Spurs. That is a net positive for the Kings, especially on offense. Of course, the Kings already had a very good offense, which is why they won 46 games last year. Will DeRozan be worth one more win? OVER New Orleans Pelicans: Vegas prediction — 46.5 wins The Pelicans are doing an odd experiment of playing without a real center. They may play Zion Williamson as a 6’6” point center alongside ex-Spur, ex-Hawk Dejounte Murray, their big off-season pick-up. I think this island of mis-matched toys may take a step back from last year’s 49 wins. UNDER. Golden State Warriors: Vegas prediction — 44.5 wins Vegas has the once-mighty Warriors in the Play-In Tournament. The Warriors gave up Klay Thompson, who seemed to be a distraction much of last year, and picked up some quality pieces, including Slo-Mo and uber-shooter Buddy Hield. I also like some of their younger players, and who knows? Maybe Andrew Wiggins will be good again. The Warriors still have Steph Curry, which means OVER. Los Angeles Lakers: Vegas prediction — 43.5 wins The Olympics reminded everyone that LeBron James and Anthony Davis are the two of the best five players in the NBA who hail from the USA. Of course, many of the world’s best players do not come from the USA. Which may explain why even with relatively healthy seasons from LeBron and AD, the Lakers won just 47 games last year and didn’t finish in the top six in the West. Would you bet on another healthy season from the Lakers’ best two players? UNDER. Houston Rockets: Vegas prediction — 43.5 wins The Rockets surprised a lot of people last year by going .500 at 41-41. This blew away the 31.5 win Vegas prediction. Will losing Boban to a European team doom the Rockets? Karma says UNDER. Los Angeles Clippers: Vegas prediction — 39.5 wins The Clippers lost Paul George and got nothing back. Spurs fans were upset when Kawhi Leonard wanted out of San Antonio six years ago, but the Spurs probably are glad that Kawhi departed. He has played in only 229 of 410 regular season games for the Clippers, has missed numerous playoff games, and his bad knee won’t let him start the season. In related news, Kawhi is 35 years old and in the first year of a three-year $152 million contract. Sad. UNDER. San Antonio Spurs: Vegas prediction — 36.5 wins If you read Pounding the Rock, you know about the Spurs. It would also be blasphemy to say anything but OVER. Can they win enough games to get into the Play-In Tournament as the “Team No One Wants to Play”? That would be cool. Utah Jazz: Vegas prediction — 29.5 wins The Jazz surprised a lot of people by not trading Lauri Markkanen this summer. He would have looked good in Silver and Black. Hey, I just learned that Patty Mills is on the Jazz! But they falsely list him at 6’2”. I have both the Jazz and Patty as UNDER. Portland Trailblazers: Vegas prediction — 22.5 wins I started last season’s over-under column by talking about all the talent on the Blazers, even they were still picked to finish last in the West. Which they did, winning only 21 games, less than their predicted 28.5 wins. I expect the Blazers to be tanking, hoping to win the Cooper Flagg lottery. UNDER. I have seven overs, and eight unders, which seems to be about the right ratio. Of course, I had the same ratio last year, so perhaps it doesn’t mean much. Go Spurs.