Oct 21, 2024
(GasBuddy) The national average price of gasoline returned to a decline over the last week, falling 3.3 cents compared to a week ago, and stands at $3.13 per gallon Monday, according to GasBuddy® data compiled from more than 12 million individual price reports covering over 150,000 gas stations across the country. The national average is down 6.2 cents from a month ago and is 39.7 cents per gallon lower than a year ago. The national average price of diesel has declined 1.3 cents in the last week and stands at $3.56 per gallon. “The median U.S. price for gasoline has just slipped below the $3/gal mark for the first time since early 2024, while the national average price of gasoline has returned to decline as oil prices have begun to cool off after Iran’s attack on Israel, due in part to sources saying Israel has agreed not to attack Iran’s oil infrastructure,” said Patrick De Haan, head of petroleum analysis at GasBuddy. “With the potential of an attack on Iran’s oil infrastructure decreasing as a result, the risk calculus for oil is decreasing, and with continued economic weakness in China providing bearish sentiment, oil prices late last week slipped back below the $70 per barrel mark, opening the door for a longer decline to potentially return to the national average. I’m hopeful that the downward trend will continue again this week for a majority of Americans as we see the average price of gasoline start to make a targeted effort to fall below the $3/gal mark for the first time since 2021.” OIL MARKETS After rising as high as $76 per barrel last week, oil prices have fallen on word that Israel had committed to not attacking Iran’s oil infrastructure as it seeks revenge for Iran’s recent attack. With such a commitment from Israel, the risk of impacting oil production in Iran decreases, reducing the risk of such an attack or impact on oil production, helping to push oil lower. In addition, continued struggles in China to boost its flailing economy have put it back in the spotlight. In overnight trade, WTI crude oil was up 47 cents to $69.69 per barrel, down from last Monday’s $73.94 per barrel level. Brent was also up in early Monday trade, rising 39 cents to $73.45 per barrel. OIL AND REFINED PRODUCTS Last week’s report from the EIA showed a 2.2 million barrel decline in U.S. oil inventories, while the SPR rose 1 million barrels and domestic production reached an estimated 13.5 million barrels per day, which would be a new all-time record. Gasoline inventories fell by 2.2 million barrels, while distillate inventories fell 3.5 million barrels. Refinery utilization rose to 87.7% as some refinery maintenance begins to wrap up. Implied gasoline demand, EIA’s proxy for retail demand, slumped 1.04 million barrels per day to 8.62 million, well above GasBuddy’s estimate that showed Milton’s impacts pushing gasoline demand down below 8 million barrels. FUEL DEMAND According to GasBuddy demand data driven by its Pay with GasBuddy™ fuel card, U.S. retail gasoline demand saw a drop of 1.0% for the week ending October 19 (Sun-Sat). Broken down by PADD region, demand fell 3.8% in PADD 1, rose 1.8% in PADD 2, fell 1.5% in PADD 3, fell 2.9% in PADD 4, and fell 1.1% in PADD 5. GasBuddy models U.S. gasoline demand at 7.83 million barrels per day. GAS PRICE TRENDS The most common U.S. gas price encountered by motorists stood at $2.99 per gallon, unchanged from last week, followed by $3.09, $2.89, $3.19, and $2.79 rounding out the top five most common prices. The median U.S. gas price is $3.00 per gallon, down 7 cents from last week and about 13 cents lower than the national average. The top 10% of stations in the country average $4.43 per gallon, while the bottom 10% average $2.61 per gallon. The states with the lowest average prices: Oklahoma ($2.67), Mississippi ($2.70), Texas ($2.72). The states with the highest average prices: California ($4.58), Hawaii ($4.56), and Washington ($4.02). Biggest weekly changes: Georgia (+24.1¢), Ohio (-18.3¢), Indiana (-16.6¢), Colorado (-12.7¢), Delaware (-11.3¢) DIESEL PRICE TRENDS The most common U.S. diesel price stood at $3.39 per gallon, unchanged from last week, followed by $3.49, $3.59, $3.69, and $3.29 rounding out the top five most common prices. The median U.S. diesel price is $3.48 per gallon, down 1 cent from last week and about 8 cents lower than the national average for diesel. Diesel prices at the top 10% of stations in the country average $4.50 per gallon, while the bottom 10% average $2.97 per gallon. The states with the lowest average diesel prices: Texas ($3.08), Mississippi ($3.17), and Oklahoma ($3.17). The states with the highest average diesel prices: Hawaii ($5.29), California ($4.87), and Washington ($4.35). Biggest weekly changes: Georgia (+19.8¢), Utah (+11.6¢), Colorado (-10.1¢), Hawaii (+8.4¢), Idaho (+7.2¢).
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