Swing districts in the New York suburbs have burst onto the political scene as a surprising and crucial battleground in the tight battle for the House of Representatives, with neither party holding a clear edge in the final stretch before Election Day. With the contest for Congress a toss-up and early voting kicking off on Saturday, Democrats are looking to retake control of the House by flipping up to five Republican-held seats in the New York City metro area, most of which were won by the GOP in the 2022 midterms. Republicans hold a thin eight-vote edge in the House now, so the path to a new majority could run squarely through Westchester County, the Hudson Valley and Long Island. “New York is still a crucial part of the House battlefield,” said Jacob Rubashkin, an analyst with Inside Elections, a non-partisan forecasting group.  “There are no gimmes in the bunch. Those continue to be tough, expensive races. If Democrats sweep them, that makes the path to the majority much more straightforward.” The rewards are even higher for New Yorkers because Brooklyn’s Rep. Hakeem Jeffries would likely become Speaker of the House if Democrats win. New York’s congressional delegation currently stands at 16 Democrats and 10 Republicans after the GOP in 2022 took advantage of a new congressional map that gave them a shot at winning several seats in the purple suburbs on Long Island and north of the city. This time, several Democratic insurgent candidates are seeking to tie their Republican rivals to former President Donald Trump, whose political brand is toxic to many voters in suburbs from coast to coast. “No other region in the country is better positioned to alone determine which party controls the gavel,” said Lawrence Levy, a Hofstra University professor who studies political trends in suburbia. “And then there is Donald Trump. He is unquestionably the proverbial two-edged sword for the Republicans [because he] is also an energizing force for Democrats.” Among the key issues driving many Democrats to the polls are abortion rights and fears for democracy, while Republicans are again stressing immigration and the economy. “The races are still close and reproductive rights concerns about rule of law and democracy will continue to mobilize Democratic voters,” said Basil Smikle, a Columbia University professor and Democratic strategist. “It’s all about the ground game now.” Dogfight between two lawmakers in Westchester Perhaps the marquee matchup is the 17th district race between Republican incumbent Rep. Mike Lawler and ex-Rep. Mondaire Jones, who previously held the seat for a single term. The district spanning northern Westchester County is affluent and highly educated. Also including Rockland, Putnam and parts of Dutchess counties, the district is a virtual prototype of the suburbs that have veered away from the GOP in the era of Trump. Lawler won the seat in the 2022 midterms and has sought to burnish his image as one of the few remaining moderates in a party increasingly dominated by Trump’s far right-wing MAGA movement. Rep. Mondaire Jones canvassing near poll sites in South Slope in Brooklyn, New York, on Aug. 23, 2022. (Shawn Inglima for New York Daily News) Jones counters that Lawler is little more than a fig leaf for Trump, especially when it comes to hot button issues like abortion rights. Lawler was recently hit with a scandal when he admitted wearing blackface as part of a Michael Jackson costume during his college days. Polls show Lawler clinging to a slim lead. But Jones has more money to spend in the final days and will be looking to take advantage of voters turning away from the unpopular Trump at the top of the ticket. “Westchester turnout for Harris will be huge,” predicted Tom Watson, a Democratic strategist based in the county. Rep. Mike Lawler (R-NY). (Photo by Anna Moneymaker/Getty Images) Scandal-tinged GOP lawmaker faces long odds of holding blue seat Republican Rep. Anthony D’Esposito made history in 2022 when he won New York’s 4th Congressional district on Long Island’s South Shore, the most pro-Democratic seat to go red. Now, he is struggling to hold onto the seat — in a district that voted for President Biden by 14% in 2020 — in a presidential election year where Democratic turnout is likely to be much higher in strongholds like the town of Hempstead, which has a large Black and Latino population. D’Esposito, a former NYPD detective, faces a stiff repeat challenge from Laura Gillen, who lost by about 3% two years ago, when Democrats were weighed down by what was seen as a historic underperformance by Gov. Hochul at the top of the ballot. As if his reelection fight didn’t look tough enough already, D’Esposito was recently hit with allegations that he improperly hired a girlfriend and his fiancee’s daughter in his congressional offices. Liberal challenger aims to topple bold-name N.J. Republican Rep. Tom Kean Jr. has one of the most famous names in New Jersey politics, but he’s fighting a blue tide in the state’s 7th district, one of the wealthiest in the country. The son of ex-Gov. Tom Kean, he narrowly won the seat by toppling scandal-tinged Democratic incumbent Rep. Tom Malinowski in 2022. He’s facing a powerful challenge this time from liberal Sue Altman, who accuses Kean Jr. of being an empty suit and mostly voting with Trump on issues like abortion rights. Interestingly, national Democrats have failed to bankroll Altman’s race, leading some political pros to suspect Kean Jr. may be able to hang on for a narrow win. Catskills battle for national bellwether The state’s 19th district has long been one of the most closely watched swing districts in the entire nation. Sweeping from the liberal-leaning Catskills through deep-red swaths of central New York to the college town of Utica, the district has repeatedly swung back and forth between the two parties over decades of demographic and political shifts. The 2024 race features a rematch of the 2022 battle between GOP Rep. Marc Molinaro and Democratic challenger Josh Riley, which Molinaro won by just 4,500 votes. Polls show Riley with a thin lead, mostly due to expected higher Democratic turnout with Trump and Harris on the ballot. Ex-CNN anchor aims for upset on L.I.’s East End Democrats have hoped to put New York’s first district on the list of true battleground districts as some suburbs nationwide have swung to the left in recent years. But Republican Rep. Nick LaLota won a comfortable victory in 2022 after his fellow Republican, ex-Rep. Lee Zeldin, left the seat to mount an unsuccessful campaign for governor. He’s facing a stiffer challenge from John Avlon, a telegenic former CNN anchor who has positioned himself as a moderate Democrat. But eastern Long Island has surprisingly remained somewhat resistant to the Democratic swing in the suburbs, and the district known for the ritzy Hamptons also includes some right-wing working class pockets that may give LaLota an edge. With Santos heading to prison, a toss-up seat turns safe for Democrats Former U.S. Rep. George Santos. (Theodore Parisienne for New York Daily News) Rep. George Santos was the story to emerge from the 2022 congressional race on Long Island. Democrats were itching to make him the poster boy for the effort to retake control of the House by hammering the GOP as the party of his lies and pro-Trump theatrics. Santos’ misdeeds, including lying about his entire life story and being indicted on fraud charges, ended up getting him expelled from the House last winter. Democratic ex-Rep. Tom Suozzi, a familiar face to voters, swept to an unexpectedly easy win in a February special election in the third district on the North Shore. Now he’s coasting to reelection, while Santos is looking at spending at least two years behind bars after pleading guilty in a deal with prosecutors.