KANSAS CITY, Mo. -- It's a nice Friday morning with milder temperatures compared to yesterday as we're starting the day in the mid-40s. Temperatures this afternoon will warm into the 70s with breezy conditions in the region once again. Overall not too bad of a day and overall a pretty darn nice weekend as temperatures warm even more with somewhat lighter winds. The system that's been talked about for the last 5 days or so is still more or less on schedule for later Monday. It's not going to be significant but it should break our unheard of start to October with no moisture whatsoever. View the latest Weather Alerts in the Kansas City region on FOX4 We have roughly 130-135 years of records for KC. We've patched the data together from various downtown KC locations and since the early 70s...KCI...to create a 130 year+ record of weather information. From that record, we've never had a drier start to October in KC weather history...and this will continue through Sunday. ++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++ Forecast: Today: Sunny, breezy and milder with highs in the lower 70s Tonight: Fair and cool with lows in the mid-40s Tomorrow: Sunny and mild with highs in the mid-70s Sunday: Warmer with highs in the mid to upper 70s ++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++ Discussion: If nothing else we can't complain about having a nice fall here in the Metro. We've had such a nice stretch of weather with pleasant days and cool/cold nights. We'll see how things progress for the fall colors. The Maples are certainly transitioning now. We typically peak in late October into early November. I won't be surprised to see more of a rusty fall for colors (aside from the maples as usual). I was hoping that rain in September would be the key for a more vibrant season but I'm concerned that the lack of rain is going to be an issue. Leaves though love the cool mornings we've had to get those colors to pop so there is some hope I guess. FOX4 Newsletters: Sign up for daily forecasts and Joe's Weather Blog in your inbox There are a couple of knowns I think for the overall weather pattern. Temperatures for the rest of the month are likely to be above average every day. At this point there aren't anymore signs of frosts or freezes on a widespread basis for awhile. I guess it's possible northern MO may see some frost next Thursday morning the 24th. This month is a lock for above-average temperatures overall with temperatures for the month around 3° above average through yesterday and with the likelihood of general warmth into the end of the month...we should have another above-average month. Now for moisture. There is that chance on Monday. Connected to an upper level storm that is in the SW part of the US this morning. It's a vigorous system now and will spin around AZ over the next couple of days through Sunday afternoon before coming out into the southern Rockies Sunday night and then move into the Plains on Monday while it weakens. See the latest forecast, maps and radar for Kansas City It will actually bring some needed rains to the northern deserts of AZ. Maybe even the Phoenix area as well With this being a colder system aloft...the potential for higher elevation snows are there as well...even into AZ So there's that. On top of that there are some ingredients there for severe weather in eastern NM tomorrow with this system helping to generate convection. The problem is that the system isn't going to be able to recharge with any Gulf of Mexico moisture as it comes into the Plains AND it's coming eastwards into some pretty dry air as well. So essentially it's coming to the eastern Plains with only the moisture it has already and not anything added. Dew points at the surface ahead of this system are only going to be in the 40s, not exactly rich moisture. That's not to say it won't rain...it likely will. What I'm thinking though is that the rain may not exactly be that helpful for the drought which is worsening by the week locally. Rainfall amounts are probably trending from a few hundredths of an inch to perhaps about 1/3rd of an inch on the high side of things. If some don't get a drop or only a few sprinkles I won't be surprised at all, especially on the MO side and farther south of KC. OF note the normally moist GFS model is really not doing a lot for the region with this...only a couple of hundredths of an inch from I-35 NWwards. Send us your weather photos and get updates from the FOX4 Weather team on Facebook There should be a couple of other chances before Halloween but no organized storms are showing up right now...just passing cold fronts. Finally the NOAA winter forecast came out yesterday. For December through February. I'm not a fan of these forecasts because of the lack of definition to them...by that I'm meaning it's one thing to forecast above-average temperatures but is it 1° above average or 10° above average? Then the equal chances, which involves us, are basically a shoulder shrug. I don't like this. Also this forecast is basic La Nina playbook stuff. Again there are more things happening than La Nina, and even that is questionable how much it will influence things. That's a lot of shoulder shrugging going on through the Plains By the way I'm working on a presentation for the NWS/Broadcasters and EM's that I'll be doing next Thursday. I'll probably break that out in a blog for you that morning so you can see that work. It's a simple look at KC snow climatology. Nothing too complicated. Numbers heavy type stuff. The feature photo comes from Terri Bruntmyer of the full Hunters Moon from last night out in Wood Heights, MO Have a great weekend! Joe