Get an insider’s look into what’s happening in and around the halls of power with expert reporting, analysis and insight from the editors and reporters of Montana Free Press. Sign up to get the free Capitolized newsletter delivered to your inbox every Thursday. Sign up October 17, 2024On Tuesday afternoon in a Billings conference room, Ryan Busse put on a suit and tie (somewhat begrudgingly, he noted, as the former corporate executive now opts for a flannel and jeans), and made direct eye contact with a sticky note on the wall in front of him — a stand-in for the camera he’d be looking at Wednesday during his first, and probably last, debate against Republican Gov. Greg Gianforte.The Democrat’s debate dress rehearsal conveyed the high stakes of his campaign for governor in the last few weeks of the 2024 election. Gianforte has been consistently up in the polls, most recently by 22 percentage points. The incumbent also declined multiple debate opportunities in early October with large broadcast and print media outlets before negotiating a live-streamed appearance with ABC-Fox affiliate NonStop Local on Oct. 16, days after absentee ballots were mailed to voters. For Busse, one hour in the same room as his opponent was better than nothing. His goal? To litigate the incumbent’s record on rising property taxes, the state’s unaffordable housing market, Gianforte’s trickle-down economic philosophy for creating jobs and liveable wages, and, as Busse frames it, the governor’s un-egalitarian vision for Montana’s future. If he hammered those points and enough people watched, Busse hoped, he’d be able to recruit more voter support ahead of Nov. 5.(Gianforte’s campaign manager did not respond to Montana Free Press’ request to observe any part of the governor’s debate preparations. An adviser close to Gianforte said allowing a reporter to be present for those sessions would be “campaign malpractice.”)The delivery Busse practiced on Tuesday was emblematic of his campaign so far: snarky jabs, a passionate appeal to the working class, and, ultimately, pillorying Gianforte as much as possible. About 30 seconds into his mock opening remarks, Busse threw his first rhetorical punch about how Gianforte handled the state’s recent $2.5 billion budget surplus.“He used a lot of that money to get millionaires and billionaires like himself great big tax breaks. And he walloped the rest of us with the largest property tax increase in the history of Montana — up to 111% — and people across the state are hurting,” Busse spieled. “Now, governor, you may not feel that pain. You’ve got four mansions, fly around in a private jet.” He turned to the sticky-note camera proxy. “But I know that all of you feel the pain.”The dress rehearsal version of Gianforte was played by Busse’s running mate for lieutenant governor, Raph Graybill, who readily supplied many of Gianforte’s common refrains about the economy.“I’ll be the first to tell you property taxes are too high in Montana. And I want to talk about the real root cause of this problem,” Graybill improvised. “These local governments are spending money out of control. That’s why I convened our property tax task force … to come up with a long-term solution to this property tax mess.”At his next opportunity, Busse practiced pivoting back to offense. “Double-speak again,” Busse said. “You cannot trust a politician to tell you that he’s going to lower your taxes when he’s the one responsible for raising them.”At the end of an hour of practice, Busse’s team debriefed. Graybill reflected that, standing in the shoes of the opponent, the attacks eventually began to rankle.“I figure if you hit him enough, he’ll react,” Graybill said about Gianforte. “It’s very hard not to get drawn in.”But on Wednesday, when Busse and Gianforte actually met in the NonStop Local studio in Missoula, Graybill’s prediction seemed to fall flat. Gianforte barely flinched at Busse’s unending attack lines, instead reviewing his notes between answers and delivering smiling talking points about the American Dream and Montana’s economic opportunity — points that were at times jarringly similar to the lines Graybill had delivered in dress rehearsal.“I agree. Property taxes are too high … If we’re going to fix property taxes permanently, we’ve got to deal with local spending. That’s why I brought together a bipartisan task force that’s focused on finding solutions,” Gianforte said. He shifted to highlighting his support for a “homestead exemption” to increase the tax rate on second homes and vacation-style rentals. “It places the burden more on out-of-staters who have second homes here. I think this is a good solution, and I look forward to getting it done in the 2025 session.”As the two candidates danced from topic to topic, Busse continued to blast Gianforte’s record — on abortion (“A governor should not be in the doctor’s office with women telling them what they can and can’t do”), Medicaid disenrollment (“Who kicks kids off of health care?”), teacher vacancies (“We have a crisis in public education because we have leadership that has failed to address it”). But aside from shaking his head and occasionally muttering “That’s not true,” Gianforte didn’t take Busse’s bait.In an exchange about public lands, the governor sidestepped Busse’s criticisms about the state’s failure to legalize corner-crossing, Gianforte’s 2009 lawsuit over a public easement on his family’s Bozeman property, and continuing to allow private landowners to access special elk tag permits through a bill he signed in 2021.“People can have their own opinions, but they’re not allowed to have their own facts,” Gianforte quipped. “Honestly, I agree with Mr. Busse. Public lands belong in public hands and we should be expanding access.” He ended his answer by promoting the state’s Youth Hunting Contest, for which Gianforte said the state is currently accepting applications. Busse did deploy another strategy he and his team workshopped on Tuesday, one specifically designed to puncture Gianforte’s rosy framing of Montana’s economic landscape: Asking the viewers to weigh their own experiences against the governor’s assertions.“I want to ask the folks at home. Do you feel like you’re living through a Montana miracle when you have to have three jobs to own a home? When your rent has gone up so much you can’t afford to live in the place that you want to work in and raise your kids in? Does that feel like a miracle to you?” Busse said. “It doesn’t feel like a miracle to me.”Gianforte was prepared for that, too. He asked the moderator to give him time for a brief anecdote to describe a woman in Big Timber who bought her first home at the age of 22 after working in a machine shop since graduating from high school.“This just shows you, when you combine the Montana work ethic with opportunity, you can prosper here in this state,” Gianforte said. In the split-screen view, Busse shot Gianforte an irked glance and shook his head. The governor grinned.—Mara SilversGOLDILOCKS SHE ISN’TWestern Montana House candidate Monica Tranel, a Democrat, had an idea to shoot a commercial in the vacation rental belonging to her opponent, Republican Rep. Ryan Zinke.A Missoula attorney, Tranel had become acutely aware, knocking doors on the campaign trail, that many of the homes she stopped at were empty, a trend she tweeted about while campaigning in Bozeman.In August Tranel splurged for a stay at Zinke’s vacation rental and brought a camera crew along to film her while she snooped. At one point she gasped as a Murphy bed folding down from the bedroom wall hit the floor a little faster than she anticipated. The gist of the commercial is that vacation rentals are pricey. Zinke’s bills out for $16,000 a month at a time when residential housing in the western part of the state is both expensive and scarce.Zinke brought up the two Tranel ads when the candidates debated last weekend on MTN News. “Monica has spent the last four years viciously and falsely attacking me … and her latest act is a violation of my home. She entered our property and filmed and jumped on our bed. Who does that?” Zinke, a retired Navy SEAL commander, said his family no longer feels safe.This week a Flathead Beacon fact-check on the commercials concluded that some of Tranel’s claims about the Zinke rentals operating out of compliance with local ordinances and with special tax treatment were incorrect.Tranel’s campaign isn’t the first to turn a camera on Zinke’s property. In the 2022 primary election, a campaign staffer for Al Olszewski was spotted filming the property. Tom Winter, a Democratic candidate in the 2022 primary, strolled by Zinke’s Snowfrog Inn, suggesting that Zinke really lives in California, an allegation Zinke has fought off for a decade. Zinke’s wife, Lola, is a California native and owns property there. Zinke uses the Snowfrog address as his Montana residence.—Tom LuteyTESTER’S BIG HAULU.S. Sen. Jon Tester reports having raised more than $77 million from all sources since the start of the 2023-2024 campaign cycle. The incumbent Democrat not only broke Montana campaign finance records with his third-quarter financials, filed Tuesday — he also registered individual contributions beyond the searchable limits of the Federal Election Commission.The FEC will only accommodate candidate-specific searches for individual donors numbering up to 500,000. This is the kind of donor data one needs to determine which states campaign donations are originating from, and in what amounts. Results for Tester’s individual contributors, per the FEC, number 653,000 and total $67 million, including $32 million raised in the last three months. Tester had $7.4 million cash on hand at the end of September.For perspective, individual contributions to the senator’s “Montanans for Tester” campaign committee from 2013 to 2018 totaled $16.2 million, per the FEC.Republican challenger Tim Sheehy reported $23 million in total receipts and individual contributions of $17.9 million.The correlation between dollars raised and likely votes is soft. Tester has trailed Sheehy in nine of 10 public polls conducted since July, with Sheehy’s lead among respondents since September extending beyond the polling margin of error. With less than three weeks remaining in the voting period, more than $225 million has been reported by candidates and political action committees in Montana’s U.S. Senate race.—Tom LuteyEASTERN DISTRICT FINANCESIn other federal races, Troy Downing, the Republican nominee for Montana’s eastern U.S. House district, reported $2.6 million in receipts since 2023. Currently Montana state auditor, Downing raised $529,332 for the quarter.Voters in the eastern U.S. House district have been producing double-digit margins of victory for Republican candidates for years. Downing and Democratic nominee John Driscoll, of Helena, agree that past is likely prologue for this election as well. Downing had $366,499 cash on hand, but also $985,000 in campaign loans. Driscoll, a former state legislator and public service commissioner, hasn’t raised or spent $5,000, the FEC threshold for required finance reporting. The Democratic candidate did inform Capitolized this week that he’s raised $4,410.99 for the campaign cycle to date. Driscoll provided a running tabulation of campaign expenditures, consisting mostly of gas, campground fees, and four $15 showers at truck stops in Lockwood and Glendive. Driscoll deducted $500 for vehicle damage sustained in a collision with a deer. He has $589 left to spend by Nov. 5.—Tom LuteyWESTERN DISTRICT FINANCESWestern House district incumbent Rep. Ryan Zinke, a Republican, raised $2 million in the third quarter, pushing his total receipts to just under $9 million. Zinke had $2.3 million cash on hand. Though political oddsmakers identify Zinke as the likely winner of his rematch with Democratic nominee Monica Tranel, they do credit Tranel with softening the Republican grip on the district.Cook Political Report changed its classification of the Zinke-Tranel race from “Likely Republican” to “Leans Republican.” Tranel raised $2.1 million in the three months ending Sept. 30. The Missoula attorney’s receipts for the cycle total more than $5.2 million. Tranel has $1.3 million cash on hand. —Tom LuteyON BACKGROUNDSpending in Montana’s U.S. Senate race has surpassed $225 million, which includes $137 million from political action committees. Read our report on the donors behind those PACs.  Sandwiched between “Jeopardy” and the local nightly news are ads suggesting that “Tester’s changed,” but while that assessment is open to interpretation, Montana’s electorate has demonstrably popped the buttons of its ticket-splitting purple-state reputation. This week’s debate between Gov. Greg Gianforte and challenger Ryan Busse was the first and likely last public forum shared by the two candidates.The post How Busse prepped for his last-stand debate appeared first on Montana Free Press.