{beacon} 12:30 REPORT Happy Friday! NOAA released its outlook for the upcoming winter season and depending on where you live, it’ll either be a wet or a warm winter due to La Niña. Here’s what to expect this winter! Anyway, here’s what’s happening today:Trump used a lighthearted charity dinner to take some deep digs at Harris and Democrats. Harris skipped the event.Trump says people at Fox News helped him write his material. Early voting is surging — and could be good news for Harris.McConnell’s reported animosity toward Trump could affect GOP next year.  I’m Cate Martel with a quick recap of the morning and what’s coming up. Send tips, commentary, feedback and cookie recipes to [email protected]. Did someone forward this newsletter to you? Sign up here.   🚌 On The Campaign Trail  Everyone saw the Tom Brady roast and thought, yeah let’s do more of that!: Former President Trump and Vice President Harris tried putting their differences aside for a night to tell jokes at the annual Al Smith charity dinner. But listening to the ~ lighthearted comedy ~ clearly illustrated just how bitter this election is. Trump attended in-person and spent most of his time unloading on Harris and other Democrats. Harris skipped the event to campaign in Wisconsin — and opted to submit a pre-taped video with actor Molly Shannon.  Tidbit — wondering who wrote Trump’s jokes?: Trump told “Fox & Friends” this morning that several people at Fox News helped him write his material (!) “I shouldn’t say that, but they wrote some jokes,” he quipped. 📹 Watch the clip  Who else was there?: Comedian Jim Gaffigan, former first lady Melania Trump, Senate Democratic Leader Chuck Schumer (N.Y.), New England Patriots owner Robert Kraft (📸 here’s a photo), former New York City Mayors Bill de Blasio and Michael Bloomberg, New York City Mayor Eric Adams (D), former independent presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy, Jr., etc.  The irony of this: Some of the jokes cut deep — particularly from Trump — and this was a charity dinner for the Catholic Church. 😅  ➤  10 MOST MEMORABLE MOMENTS:Note: If you notice that most of these moments are from Trump, not Harris, that’s because he spoke for roughly 30 minutes. Harris submitted a 2.5-minute video with not nearly as many jokes.   Trump made an apparent joke about his assassination attempts: “Tradition holds that I am supposed to tell a few self-deprecating jokes this evening. So here it goes. Nope. I’ve got nothing … I guess I don’t see the point of taking shots at myself when other people have been shooting at me for a hell of a long time.” 📹 Watch Trump made a quip about his legal battles: “It’s a true pleasure to be with you this evening. … These days, it’s really a pleasure anywhere in New York without a subpoena for my appearance.” 📹 Watch Jim Gaffigan made an uncomfy cat joke: “During the first and only debate, President Trump talked about migrants taking cats and eating them,” Gaffigan said. “If you’re keeping track at home, this is the second time grabbing a kitty has been part of a campaign issue.” 📹 Watch Trump made a joke about Chuck Schumer and Tim Walz’s gender: “I used to think the Democrats were crazy for saying that men have periods, but then I met Tim Walz,” Trump said. And at another point, Trump turned to Schumer and said, “Considering how woke your party has become, if Kamala loses, you still have a chance to become the first woman president.” 📹 Watch Trump took a dig at Doug Emhoff: “The only piece of advice I would have for her in the event that she wins would be not to let her husband Doug anywhere near the nannies,” Trump said. “Just keep them away.” This is a reference to Emhoff’s alleged affair during his first marriage with a woman who worked with children. 📹 Watch Harris made a crack about accepting election results: “Is there anything you think I shouldn’t bring up tonight?” Harris asked Shannon while in character. “Well, don’t lie. Thou shall not bear false witness to thy neighbor,” Shannon said, before Harris chimed in, “indeed, especially thy neighbor’s election results.” 📹 Watch Harris’s video Gaffigan took a swipe at Harris skipping the event: After Harris’s video played, Gaffigan said, "As I watch that, I couldn't help but think of, now I know how my kids felt when I FaceTime into a piano recital they were at." He also questioned why she wouldn’t attend. “This is a room full of Catholics and Jews in New York City. This is a layup for the Democratic nominee,” Gaffigan joked. 📹 Watch Schumer sat near Trump, straight-faced: HuffPost’s Igor Bobic noticed Schumer only clapped one time during Trump’s remarks, when Trump promised to uncap SALT deductions. 📹 Watch Schumer’s facial expressions Trump took a direct swipe at Harris: “We have someone in the White House who can barely talk, barely put together two coherent sentences, who seems to have mental faculties of a child. It’s a person that has nothing going, no intelligence whatsoever. But enough about Kamala Harris.” 📹 Watch Trump made a dig against ‘White Dudes for Harris’: “There’s a group called White Dudes for Harris. But I’m not worried about them,” Trump said. “Their wives and their wives’ lovers are all voting for me.” 📹 Watch   💻 Watch the full dinner — it was quite awkward and entertaining ➤  TIDBITS FROM THE CAMPAIGN TRAIL: ‘Clear Eyes. Full Heart. Can’t Win’: Texas Tech professor Joel Sievert posted that he’s been researching state Senate candidates and stumbled on his favorite candidate website. Check out “Kate Barr Can’t Win.” Her website reads: “Get in losers, we’re (not) going to the Senate,” blaming gerrymandering. 🔎 Check out the campaign website   The headline on Drudge Report this morning: “WALL STREET: 72% CHANCE SHE WINS,” the top headline reads. 🔎 Read the MarketWatch story   Bret Baier said he made a ‘mistake’: The Fox News host didn’t include a specific clip of Trump discussing combatting “the enemy from within.”Who benefits most from early voting?: Team Harris is working especially hard to push supporters to vote early, report The Hill’s Alex Gangitano and Niall Stanage.  Why?: Some Democratic-leaning groups, such as young voters, are considered unreliable voters on Election Day. Republican voters tend to be traditional Election Day voters.  But it’s not just a Democratic effort this year: “Trump has been notably less hostile to early voting methods this year — a change that is perhaps as close as he will come to a tacit admission that his previous rhetoric hurt his own party.” ➤  THE LATEST ELECTION FORECASTING MODEL:Trump has taken a narrow lead over Harris in pollster Nate Silver’s latest prediction model, 50.2 percent to 49.5 percent. ➤  INTERESTING READS FROM THE TRAIL:‘Trump’s Meandering Speeches Motivate His Critics and Worry His Allies’: The New York Times ‘On the Campaign Trail With Elon Musk: Offering Young Men an American Dream’: The Wall Street Journal ‘Trump Is Speaking Like Hitler, Stalin, and Mussolini’: “The former president has brought dehumanizing language into American presidential politics.” The Atlantic ‘Why Harris is happy with that confrontational Fox interview’: The Hill 🫖 In Congress   What I’m hearing is the Senate cloakroom needs a private, reality TV-style confessional:  When Senate Republican Leader Mitch McConnell (Ky.) reportedly revealed in 2020 how he felt about former President Trump in an oral history, he hinted at the broader animosity that is felt about Trump among Senate Republicans.  That was in 2020, but it still very much matters: The Hill’s Alexander Bolton reports that “McConnell’s comments signal there will be lingering tensions — and some level of mutual distrust — between a significant number of Republican senators and Trump if he returns to the White House next year.” Read more on the GOP animosity toward Trump: ‘McConnell exposes deep anti-Trump sentiment within Senate GOP’📰 News This Morning New unsealed documents in the Trump Jan. 6 case:U.S. District Judge Tanya Chutkan just unsealed nearly 1,900 pages of evidence that special counsel Jack Smith compiled to build an election interference case against former President Trump. Keep in mind: Many of the pages are redacted, but you can tell how massive this case is.  What you can see: “Much of what readers are able to review is already public, including transcripts from the now-disbanded House Jan. 6 committee, press releases from various secretaries of state, the text of  Trump’s rally speech and phone call with Georgia officials, and even real election certificates showing President Biden as the winner of the 2020 contest.”  Read more on the importance of the evidence, via The Hill’s Rebecca Beitsch, Ella Lee and Zach Schonfeld.🐝 Internet Buzz  🧁 Celebrate: Today is National Chocolate Cupcake Day! 🍭 A new candy exhibit in D.C.!: “Total Candy: One of Fall’s Most Fascinating Art Exhibits Has Arrived,” reports Washingtonian’s Molly Szymanski. “Felix Gonzalez-Torres's work is now at the National Portrait Gallery.” (Washingtonian) 📆 On The Agenda  The House and Senate are out. President Biden is in Germany, and Vice President Harris is in Michigan. (all times Eastern) 2:35 p.m.: Harris campaigns in Grand Rapids, Mich. 💻 Livestream 5 p.m.: Former President Trump holds a roundtable in Detroit. 💻 Livestream 5:25 p.m.: Harris campaigns in Lansing, Mich. 💻 Livestream7 p.m.: Biden returns from Berlin and heads to Camp David. 7 p.m.: Trump campaigns in Detroit. 💻 Livestream 7 p.m.: Former President Obama campaigns for Harris in Tucson, Ariz. 💻 Livestream 8:10 p.m.: Harris campaigns in Oakland County, Mich. 💻 Livestream 👋 And Finally…   Let’s get the weekend off to a good start: This horse wants a refresh and is trying out bangs. Close Thank you for signing up! Subscribe to more newsletters here The latest in politics and policy. Direct to your inbox. Sign up for the 12:30 Report newsletter Subscribe