Welcome to The Hill's Campaign newsletter{beacon} Campaign Report Campaign Report   The Big Story  Early voting kicks into high gear ahead of Election DayCandidates in the Nov. 5 elections are entering the final sprint to Election Day, but across the country voters are already casting their ballots. © AP Millions of voters across the country — in about a dozen states now and increasing in the coming days — are already casting ballots for president and other important races set to be decided Nov. 5, including in key swing states Pennsylvania and Arizona.   According to The Hill/Decision Desk HQ polling forecast update this week, Harris has a 52 percent chance of winning the presidency in the "exceptionally close" race, but neither candidate has a lock on the 270 electoral votes needed for victory.     Nationally, Harris has a razor-thin lead within the margins of error at an average 49.8 percent to Trump's 46.8 percent, the national polling tracker shows.   Early voting has been a taboo topic for some Republicans as former President Trump has villainized mail-in and early ballots as unfair along with his false claims about the results of the 2020 election. The former president has advocated for all voting to take place in person on Election Day, and he has cast doubt on the veracity of ballots cast otherwise, even as Republicans nationally have encouraged voters to embrace alternate voting methods for convenience.   "We have this stupid stuff, where you can vote 45 days early. I wonder what the hell happens during that 45," Trump said during a Pennsylvania rally last month. "It's terrible."  He also blasted early voting repeatedly over the summer.   “They have early voting, late voting, everything is so ridiculous,” Trump said during a Florida rally in July. “We should have one-day voting, paper ballots, voter ID and certification of citizenship ... that’s what we’re striving for.”   Early voting for Nov. 5 already has started in California, Virginia, Montana, Nebraska, Indiana, New Mexico, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Maine, Oregon, Wyoming and Arizona.   Next week will see early voting start in Georgia, Iowa, Kansas, Rhode Island, Tennessee, North Carolina, Louisiana, Washington state and Massachusetts.   Nevada's early voting period begins Oct. 19.   Early voting laws vary by state, and several states don’t allow voters to cast their ballots outside of in-person on Election Day without approved excuses. Alabama, Mississippi and New Hampshire have no early voting procedures.  Forty-seven states, D.C. and other territories allow all voters to take part in early in-person voting, including places with all-mail elections, according to the National Conference of State Legislatures.   Early voting could be even more crucial this election cycle as states along the coastline get battered by repeated hurricanes. Hurricane Helene devastated parts of crucial battleground North Carolina, displacing thousands of people, and Florida is being battered by Hurricane Milton a week after taking a hit from Helene.  RELATED: Arizona Republican Senate candidate Kari Lake will vote early Thursday, despite her previous criticism related to Trump's loss in the 2020 presidential election and her own unsuccessful gubernatorial bid in 2022.    Welcome to The Hill’s Campaign Report, I'm Liz Crisp. Each week we track the key stories you need to know to stay ahead of the 2024 election and who will set the agenda in Washington.   Did someone forward you this newsletter? Subscribe here.   Essential Reads  Key election stories and other recent campaign coverage:  Trump campaigns in ‘make or break’ PennsylvaniaFormer President Trump barnstormed Pennsylvania on Wednesday as he and his campaign have made clear the commonwealth could make or break his chances of winning in November. Trump held rallies in President Biden’s hometown of Scranton and in Reading. It was his fourth visit to Pennsylvania since the start of September, and it came four days after he held a rally in front of thousands of supporters in Butler, the site of an assassination …  Full Story  Kari Lake dodges question over whether she’d certify 2024 electionArizona Senate GOP candidate Kari Lake dodged a question on whether she would vote to certify the 2024 election results regardless of the outcome during an interview aired Wednesday. NBC News congressional correspondent Julie Tsirkin asked Lake, who is running against Rep. Ruben Gallego (D-Ariz.) for Sen. Kyrsten Sinema’s (I) seat, if she would vote to codify the 2024 election no matter what happens if she became senator. “Can …  Full Story  Harris, Trump locked in tight races in Rust Belt battlegrounds: Polling Vice President Harris and her opponent, former President Trump, are locked in tight races in the Rust Belt battleground states with 26 days until Election Day, according to new polling released Wednesday.  The new survey, conducted by Quinnipiac University, showed Trump leading in Michigan and Wisconsin while Harris had the upper hand in Pennsylvania among the state’s likely voters.  The ex-president had a 3-point …  Full Story   The Countdown Upcoming news themes and events we're watching:27 days until the 2024 general election34 days until Congress is scheduled to be back in session104 days until Inauguration Day 2025  In Other News Branch out with a different read from The Hill: Harris makes impromptu call into CNN, says Trump’s hurricane comments ‘dangerous’ Vice President Harris called into CNN on Wednesday to talk about Hurricane Milton as it approaches Florida, bashing former President Trump for his comments about the federal government’s response to the latest storms. “It is dangerous, it is unconscionable, frankly, that anyone who considers themselves a leader would mislead desperate people to the point that those desperate people would not receive the aid to which they … Full Story   Trump edges Harris by 2 points in Pennsylvania surveyFormer President Trump edged out his general election opponent, Vice President Harris, by 2 points in a new Pennsylvania survey.  Trump had a 2-point advantage, 49 percent support to 47 percent, among likely Pennsylvania voters, according to an InsiderAdvantage state poll released Tuesday. Some 2 percent of respondents picked another candidate while the other 2 percent were undecided. The ex-president’s lead was within … Full Story   Around the Nation Local and state headlines regarding campaigns and elections: Republicans raise $1 million targeting South Texas House races as Democrats invest elsewhere (Texas Tribune)  Proposition 128: People convicted of some violent felonies in Colorado would be imprisoned longer (Colorado Sun)  Fani Willis’ fundraising soars in Georgia Fulton County prosecutor’s race (Atlanta Journal-Constitution)  Kentucky secretary of state urges lawmakers to protect election officials from AI impersonations (Kentucky Lantern)   What We're Reading Election news we've flagged from other outlets:More Americans Identify as Republican Than Democrat. Here’s What That Means for the Election (Wall Street Journal) Vance and Walz press corps revive a tradition on their campaign planes (ABC News)  Analysis: The hurricane X-factor in the 2024 election (The Washington Post)  Inside the Battle for America’s Most Consequential Battleground State (The New York Times)  Democrats Launch Outlandish New Stunt to Troll Trump (The Daily Beast)   Elsewhere Today Key stories on The Hill right now: Democrats start to hit the panic button Democrats’ nerves are at an all-time high.  Two months ago — even a month ago — they were feeling bullish about Vice President Harris’s prospects of defeating former President Trump. But now, with less than a month to go until Election Day, they’re increasingly worried about a number of issues plaguing the Democratic nominee’s … Read more Susan Rice: Trump’s reported calls with Putin appear illegal  Former White House adviser and United Nations ambassador Susan Rice called out former President Trump over a report that he has spoken with Russian President Vladimir Putin at least seven times since leaving office, suggesting such calls would violate the Logan Act. The law, which makes it illegal for American citizens to negotiate with … Read more  What People Think Opinions related to campaigns and elections submitted to The Hill: Our nation needs people like Jon Tester and Larry Hogan in the Senate  How you know the Democrats think Trump is going to winHarris too chicken to back repeal of California’s pro-criminal Prop 47   You're all caught up. See you next time! Check out The Hill's Campaign page for the latest coverage. Like this newsletter? 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