Hurricane Milton is now a category 4 hurricane as it closes in on Florida’s Gulf Coast. Tornadic supercells are sweeping across southern Florida from the outer bands of the storm. Conditions will continue to deteriorate over the next few hours. A tornado watch is in effect for South Florida through 9pm this evening. High shear and dry air has weakened Milton slightly, as expected. However, the storm remains powerful with life threatening impacts possible across the state. The wind field will expand over the next 24 hours with tropical force gusts possible across much of the state by this evening. The storm is expected to make landfall south of Tampa after midnight. It will remain a hurricane through central Florida and toward the east coast of the state. The center of Milton will liekly clear the coast by midday Thursday. But tropical storm force winds and storm surge up to 3 feet will contineu to impact parts of the southeast coast through much of the day. Threats Storm Surge: Destructive surge up to 10-15 feet possible from Anna Maria Island to Boca Grande Rainfall: 5-12 inches, with up to 18 inches possible for parts of Florida. This will lead to flash flooding and river flooding Wind: Hurricane force wind will impact central Florida, with tropical storm force winds expanding more than 175 miles from center. Downed trees and widespread power outages are likely Tornadoes: Threat will continue through Wednesday for central and southern Florida. Surf: Life threatening rip currents and dangerous surf will impact the Gulf and Southeast Coasts through Saturday.   11 PM Tuesday: Hurricane Milton is a dangerous category 5 hurricane with maximum sustained winds up to 160 mph. Wind shear should help weaken the storm some before landfall, but it will not be enough. Milton will still be a major hurricane at landfall overnight Wednesday into Thursday. Impacts will be felt far from the center, in fact across most of the Florida Peninsula. Words from the National Hurricane Center, “This is a very serious situation and residents in Florida should closely follow orders from their local emergency management officials. Evacuations and other preparations should be completed today. Milton has the potential to be one of the most destructive hurricanes on record for west-central Florida.” Carolinas: Milton will NOT impact our area It is possible the coast of South Carolina will see some rain and wind from Milton, but the biggest threat for the coast of the Carolinas will be rip currents and coastal erosion. Florida: Milton should weaken a bit before making landfall thanks to some dry air and wind shear. This will still be a significant and life-changing hurricane. Milton will make landfall overnight Wednesday into Thursday as a major hurricane (category 3 or higher) along the west coast of Florida. Significant wind impact and a life-threatening storm surge will impact Florida’s west coast on Wednesday. The National Hurricane Center is forecasting storm surge could reach 8 to 12 feet. PREVIOUS UPDATE: 11 AM 10/8 Hurricane Milton remains a powerful Category 4 hurricane as it moves north of the Yucatan Peninsula. It has sustained winds of 150 mph with a central pressure of 929 mb. The slight drop in intensity overnight was due to an eyewall replacement cycle. The core of Milton is now more compact with the eyewall now only 12 nautical miles across, down from 22 nautical miles on Monday. Vertical shear may weaken Milton as it approaches Florida, but it will remain an extremely large and dangerous storm. Milton’s wind field is expected to expand even further before landfall, which means impacts will be felt well outside the center of the storm. It is forecast to make landfall late Wednesday along the west central Florida coast, near Tampa. Impacts will begin for Florida by Wednesday afternoon. Watches and Warnings Storm Surge Warning: Flamingo to the Suwannee River on the FL west coast and from Port Canaveral to St. Mary’s River on the east coast Hurricane Warning: Bonita Beach to the Suwannee River, as well as the east coast up to Ponte Vedra Beach Tropical Storm Watches and Warnings: North Florida, along the southeast coast up to the Carolinas, and the Florida Keys and the Bahamas Threats Storm Surge: Destructive surge up to 10-15 feet possible Rainfall: 5-12 inches, with up to 18 inches possible for parts of Florida. This will lead to flash flooding and river flooding Wind: Hurricane force wind will impact central Florida, with tropical storm impacts beginning Wednesday afternoon. Downed trees and widespread power outages are likely Tornadoes: Threat will increase tonight and continue through Wednesday for central and southern Florida. Surf: Life threatening rip currents and dangerous surf will impact the Gulf and Southeast Coasts through Saturday. At 11 PM, hurricane Milton is still a dangerous category 5 hurricane. Milton has temporarily stopped strengthening thanks to undergoing an eyewall replacement cycle. Maximum winds are at 165 mph with a pressure of 914 mb. At 5 PM Monday, Milton dropped to a pressure of 897 mb. This was the first sub-900 mb hurricane in almost 20 years. In fact, it is now in the top 5 for strongest hurricanes ever recorded in the Atlantic Basin. Forecast Notes: Milton will not impact the WCCB Charlotte area. Milton will likely become a bit larger after undergoing the eyewall replacement cycle. Landfall could be anywhere from Tampa to Fort Myers right now. This storm is too dangerous to wait until Wednesday morning to see where landfall will be. If you’re in an evacuation zone, please leave. Remember – the cone represents an area where the center could be. Areas that end up near or south of the center, will see life-threatening impacts. As Milton enters the most eastern part of the Gulf of Mexico, it will encounter some dry air and wind shear which could slightly weaken the storm. Milton will be a very powerful hurricane at landfall. Life-threatening storm surge, destructive winds, tornadoes and flooding are all likely. PREVIOUS 5 PM 10/7: 5 PM Hurricane Milton: Milton is the strongest hurricane to ever form in the Gulf of Mexico. Only 2 other hurricanes in the Gulf of Mexico have had max winds of 180+ since 1950. Allen in 1980 and Rita in 2005 – Allen and Rita did not form in the Gulf. Milton will encounter dry air and some wind shear would should slightly weaken the hurricane before it reaches the west coast of Florida. However, it will still be a powerful and major hurricane – a category 3 or higher. From National Weather Service out of Tampa, Florida: “Structural damage to sturdy buildings, some with complete roof and wall failures. Complete destruction of mobile homes. Damage greatly accentuated by large airborne projectiles. Locations may be uninhabitable for weeks or months. – Numerous large trees snapped or uprooted along with fences and roadway signs blown over. – Many roads impassable from large debris, and more within urban or heavily wooded places. Many bridges, causeways, and access routes impassable. – Widespread power and communications outages. Carolinas: Milton will NOT impact our area It is possible the coast of South Carolina will see some rain and wind from Milton, but the biggest threat for the coast of the Carolinas will be rip currents and coastal erosion. Florida: Evacuations are underway for several counties in the Florida Peninsula Milton should weaken a bit before making landfall thanks to some dry air and wind shear. This will still be a significant and life-changing hurricane. Milton will make landfall on Wednesday or overnight into Thursday as a major hurricane (category 3 or higher) along the west coast of Florida. Significant wind impact and a life-threatening storm surge will impact Florida’s west coast on Wednesday. The National Hurricane Center said storm surges could reach 8 to 12 feet Hurricane Warnings and Storm Surge Warnings are in effect for Florida’s west coast. PREVIOUS 11 AM 10/7: Hurricane Milton has rapidly intensified and is now a category 5 hurricane as it nears the Yucatan Peninsula in the Gulf of Mexico. It is forecast to make landfall along the west coast of Florida on Wednesday. The rapid intensification is due to the extremely warm waters and low wind shear over the Gulf of Mexico. This type of intensification is rare and only seen in a few past storms like Wilma (2005) and Felix (2007).   Milton will continue to strengthen as it tracks northeast of the Yucatan Peninsula Tuesday. It will remain a powerful hurricane as it tracks toward the central west coast of Florida Wednesday. However, drier air and higher shear will help lead to some weakening, as it disrupts the structure of storm in the eastern Gulf of Mexico. However, it will likely remain a dangerous major hurricane when it makes landfall midweek. Hurricane and tropcial storm watches are in effect for along the Gulf coast of Florida. Life threatening storm surge, heavy rain leading to flash flooding and damaging gusts will all be significant hazards for Florida. Current Watches and Warnings Hurricane Warning: Northern Yucatan Peninsula Hurricane Watch: Florida Gulf Coast from Chokoloskee to Suwannee River and Dry Tortugas Storm Surge Watch: Florida Gulf Coast from Flamingo to Suwannee River Tropical Storm Warning: South of Celestun to Campeche, Mexico Tropical Storm Watch: Lower, Middle and Upper Florida Keys, Florida Gulf Coast from Flamingo to South of Chokoloskee Key Impacts Storm Surge: Life threatening surge along Florida’s Gulf coast with up to 8-12 feet possible Rainfall: 5-10 inches, with up to 15 inches possible for Florida, increasing the risk of flash flooding and river flooding Wind: Hurricane force wind expected along the northern Yucatan and Florida’s west coast by Tuesday night, or early Wednesday Surf: Dangerous surf and rip currents along the Gulf Coast over the next few days