HONOLULU (KHON2) - Fairly dry air in the mid levels and near-normal precipitable water have continued to limit more widespread heavy shower development and thunder potential. Regardless, latest observations, data, and guidance all warrant continuing to mention a slight chance of thunderstorms and the possibility for brief heavy showers through tonight. Meanwhile, weakened ridging north of the islands has resulted in gentle to moderate trade winds prevailing across the state today. This has allowed sea breezes to develop in select leeward locations, resulting in afternoon cloud buildups and a few showers along leeward and interior sections of the islands. These are expected to clear tonight. Trades may still be light enough to support overnight land breezes, but are generally expected to start building back over the state tonight through early Monday. Therefore, expect chances for heavier showers to shift back towards windward and mountain locations, but moisture availability will continue to be a limiting factor. Guidance continues to suggest that trade winds gradually increase on Monday as a new high pressure to the distant northwest builds eastward. Instability may linger through Monday, but generally, increasingly stable conditions should return by Tuesday at the latest and persist through much of the week as the upper low weakens into a broad trough and shifts just east of the state. With the return of a more typical trade wind pattern, expect clouds and showers to favor primarily windward and mauka areas. With this afternoon's forecast updates, shower chances were tweaked for the remainder of the week based on the latest guidance, but the overall forecast philosophy remains unchanged.