Hurricane Milton was rapidly organizing in the Gulf of Mexico and casting an ominous shadow toward Florida, where state emergency management officials said they were preparing for the largest hurricane evacuation since 2017. With the track of Milton aimed right at Florida’s Gulf coast — currently somewhere between Tampa and Naples as of Sunday evening — forecasters warned of potentially life-threatening storm surge, destructive winds and widespread torrential rain. Milton could be a Category 3 hurricane or higher, according to the National Hurricane Center’s 5 p.m. update, though forecasters said it’s still too soon to be certain about the exact track and magnitude. The storm could reach Category 4 or even 5 in the middle of the Gulf of Mexico, but some weakening is possible before landfall, hurricane center forecasters said. “However, the regional hurricane models are showing the system growing even if it weakens, and we are expecting Milton to be a large hurricane at landfall, with very dangerous impacts spread out over a big area,” the hurricane center wrote in its 5 p.m. Sunday update. “There is increasing confidence that a powerful hurricane with life-threatening hazards will be affecting portions of the Florida west coast around the middle of this week.” “Do not try to game the forecast,” Gov. Ron DeSantis urged residents at a hurricane briefing Sunday night. “Be cautious how you’re looking at this data and make inferences you are going to be in the clear.” DeSantis expanded a state of emergency he declared on Saturday to cover 51 counties, including Broward, Palm Beach and Miami-Dade counties. Only counties in the western Panhandle were excluded from the emergency declaration. Milton could make landfall late Tuesday or early Wednesday but its effects are likely to begin much earlier as Milton’s wind field expands over the Gulf of Mexico’s warm and deep waters. Milton’s forecast cone “covers almost the entire west coast of Florida,” said Gov. Ron DeSantis Sunday morning. “(It’s) not any type of storm that has been dealt with, certainly in recent years … This is an unusual track in terms of it coming in from the Pacific Ocean, hopping across Mexico, forming and then coming horizontally into the west coast of Florida.” ‘Of course we’re worried’: South Floridians prepare to hunker down ahead of Hurricane Milton DeSantis said Sunday that while it remains to be seen just where Milton will strike, it’s clear that Florida is going to be hit hard — “I don’t think there’s any scenario where we don’t have major impacts at this point.” The state’s Director of Emergency Management, Kevin Guthrie, said the state is preparing for the largest hurricane evacuation since 2017, when Hurricane Irma cut through the entire length of the Florida peninsula from the Keys to Georgia. At the Sunday evening news conference, emergency management officials urged residents to use the website fl511.com for emergency evacuation information. The forecast track for Milton is particularly concerning for the Tampa Bay area. The forecast path on Sunday morning showed the storm moving directly into and over the bay as a major hurricane, although later in the morning the track shifted south toward Sarasota. DeSantis said Sunday that Milton is expected to make landfall about 5 p.m. Wednesday in Pinellas County. Still, “models can shift,” he warned. “Don’t get wedded to where the landfall is being predicted right now. The cone, at this point, effectively, can bring it almost anywhere on the western Florida peninsula.” Initial hurricane watches and storm-surge watches are likely to be issued for parts of Florida within hours, experts said Sunday. DeSantis stated that crews readying to mobilize for power restoration, and that Milton may cause outages greater than those brought by Hurricane Helene. There is a “massive amount of resources being marshalled,” he added. “If the center of Milton tracks just to the north of Tampa Bay, the scope of potential storm surge is impossible to imagine,” Fox Weather hurricane specialist Brian Norcross wrote on his blog, Hurricane Intel. “Think of of Helene’s surge and add another few feet.” “This is an unusual and extremely concerning forecast track for a hurricane approaching the Tampa Bay area,” warned AccuWeather Chief Meteorologist Jon Porter. “Milton could rapidly intensify into a major hurricane with extreme impacts. This hurricane could create a life-threatening storm surge. Please make sure your family and in friends in this area are prepared.” A Hurricane Hunter aircraft investigated Milton on Sunday morning and reported that an eyewall has already begun to form, indicating that rapid intensification has begun. Hurricane center forecasters said Milton will encounter complex atmospheric conditions that make its exact forecast difficult to nail down, including the intensity by the time it reaches Florida. “The intensity guidance continues to show a significant spread in the forecast peak intensity (over the next three days), with possibilities ranging from Category 1 to Category 5 strength,” the hurricane center forecasters said. Milton is expected to bring rain totals of 5 to 8 inches, with localized areas seeing potentially up to 12 inches, across portions of the Florida peninsula and the Keys through Wednesday night. That will come on top of moisture ahead of the hurricane that is already saturating the state. A flood watch is in effect for all of South Florida lasting into Thursday morning. Since many of the counties under the Milton state of emergency are still recovering from Hurricane Helene, DeSantis asked the Florida Division of Emergency Management and the Florida Department of Transportation to coordinate all available resources and personnel to supplement local communities as they expedite debris removal. As of 5 p.m. Sunday, Milton was located about 805 miles west-southwest of Tampa, moving east at 7 mph with maximum sustained winds of 85 mph. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles from the center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles from the center. A tropical storm warning is in effect for Celestun to Cancun, Mexico. A hurricane watch is in effect for Celestun to Cabo Catoche, Mexico. Andy Jensen loads sandbags into his car in Oakland Park on Sunday. (Joe Cavaretta/South Florida Sun Sentinel) Currently, clouds and showers/thunderstorms over portions of South Florida are associated with a broad area of low pressure area not tied to Milton. Heavy rainfall and flooding is expected across South Florida through early next week. A Flood Watch is in effect for the entire area from Sunday morning to Thursday morning. The projected impact of Milton to the South Florida region is still being assessed, but is generally expected to be late Tuesday through Wednesday. Other tropical systems   The forecast cone for Hurricane Leslie as of 5 p.m. Sunday. (National Hurricane Center/Courtesy) Far in the Atlantic, Hurricane Leslie formed on Saturday and Hurricane Kirk continued moving north-northeast as a Category 2 major hurricane. Neither is a threat to land. Leslie, located 950 miles west of Africa’s southernmost Cabo Verde Islands, had a maximum sustained wind speed of 90 mph and was moving northwest at 9 mph as of 5 p.m. Sunday. In the five-day track, forecasters are projecting the storm to turn to the northwest, away from the Caribbean, and increase in forward speed. Leslie may begin weakening sometime in the next day or so. The forecast cone for Hurricane Kirk as of 5 p.m. Sunday. (National Hurricane Center/Courtesy) Meanwhile, Hurricane Kirk was downgraded to a Category 1 hurricane Sunday with its maximum sustained winds dropping to 85 mph. Long-range forecasts show Kirk arcing north and west toward Europe. At 5 p.m. Sunday, Kirk was located about 1,050 miles west of the Azores and was moving north-northeast at 23 mph. The next named storm will be Nadine. Staff writer Lisa J. Huriash contributed to this report, which was supplemented by information from the Associated Press.  Forecasts for Hurricane Helene’s path were uncannily accurate. Here’s why.